比特幣減半削弱了牛市預期

在比特幣第四次減半的預期中，分析師對持續牛市的預期提出警告。與先前的減半不同，礦工獎勵的減少可能不是主要的成長動力。相反，焦點轉向透過現貨 ETF 吸引新投資者，這標誌著比特幣正在逐漸被主流接受。此次減半發生在未知的高利率領域，分析師強調流動性和需求在決定未來幾個月比特幣價值的重要性。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: Tempering Expectations for a Bullish Surge

比特幣第四次減半：緩和看漲飆​​升的預期

As the highly anticipated fourth halving of Bitcoin's block reward approaches, analysts are moderating their expectations for a sustained bull run in the cryptocurrency's price over the subsequent 12-18 months. Unlike previous halving events, which have historically triggered significant price increases, the current outlook is characterized by greater caution.

隨著備受期待的比特幣區塊獎勵第四次減半的臨近，分析師正在降低對未來 12-18 個月加密貨幣價格持續牛市的預期。與以往引發價格大幅上漲的減半事件不同，當前的前景更加謹慎。

According to analysts at Kaiko, a Paris-based blockchain firm, the impact of the halving may not be as pronounced as in the past. The halving, which reduces the block reward received by miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, is unlikely to be the primary driver of Bitcoin's growth in the near term.

總部位於巴黎的區塊鏈公司Kaiko的分析師表示，減半的影響可能不會像過去那麼明顯。減半將礦工獲得的區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC，不太可能成為比特幣近期成長的主要推動力。

"Bitcoin may have enjoyed substantial returns following its previous halvings, but this latest event comes at a time when the asset class has matured and macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain," noted Kaiko in a recent report.

Kaiko 在最近的一份報告中指出：“比特幣在之前的減半之後可能獲得了可觀的回報，但這一最新事件發生在該資產類別已經成熟且宏觀經濟狀況仍然不確定的時候。”

Instead, analysts believe that the focus will shift towards attracting new investors to Bitcoin, particularly through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and, soon, in Hong Kong. The introduction of these ETFs marks a significant milestone in Bitcoin's journey towards mainstream acceptance within the financial world.

相反，分析師認為，重點將轉向吸引新投資者投資比特幣，特別是透過美國的現貨交易所交易基金（ETF），以及很快在香港的投資。這些 ETF 的推出標誌著比特幣走向金融界主流接受之路的一個重要里程碑。

Uncharted Territory for Bitcoin

比特幣的未知領域

This halving occurs in a unique macroeconomic context, amidst a rising interest rate environment. Analysts highlight the absence of a historical precedent for Bitcoin's long-term trading behavior in such conditions. They emphasize that robust liquidity and increasing demand will play a crucial role in enhancing Bitcoin's value proposition in the coming months.

這次減半發生在獨特的宏觀經濟背景下，也就是利率上升的環境。分析師強調，在這種情況下，比特幣的長期交易行為尚無歷史先例。他們強調，強勁的流動性和不斷增長的需求將在未來幾個月增強比特幣的價值主張方面發揮至關重要的作用。

"While the halving itself may not be the primary catalyst for a sustained bull run, it could contribute to the overall positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin," said Luke Martin, a senior analyst at BNY Mellon's Digital Currency Center. "However, investors should be mindful of the macroeconomic headwinds and avoid making overly speculative bets."

紐約梅隆銀行數位貨幣中心高級分析師盧克馬丁表示：“雖然減半本身可能不是持續牛市的主要催化劑，但它可能有助於提升圍繞比特幣的整體積極情緒。” “不過，投資者應留意宏觀經濟的不利因素，避免過度投機。”

It is important to note that the halving is a scheduled event that occurs every four years and is designed to gradually reduce the issuance of new Bitcoins. While it has historically been associated with price increases, it is crucial to approach this halving with a balanced perspective, taking into account the evolving market dynamics and macroeconomic factors.

值得注意的是，減半是每四年發生一次的預定事件，旨在逐漸減少新比特幣的發行量。雖然歷史上它與價格上漲有關，但以平衡的視角對待這一減半至關重要，同時考慮到不斷變化的市場動態和宏觀經濟因素。