比特币第四次减半：对网络动态、矿工收入和市场反应的影响

2023年4月22日晚，比特币第四次减半，区块补贴减少一半至3.125 BTC。减半对费用产生了暂时的影响，由于可替代代币协议 Runes 的推出，交易需求激增。尽管如此，难度还是小幅增加了2.0%，表明矿工并没有通过降低算力来做出反应。尽管比特币价格在减半后最初上涨，但将其直接归因于该事件仍然具有挑战性。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: A Deep Dive into the Impact on Network Dynamics and Miner Revenue

比特币第四次减半：深入探讨对网络动态和矿工收入的影响

On the evening of April 22nd, Bitcoin underwent a significant milestone with the completion of its fourth halving, an event that halved the block subsidy from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. This programmatic supply function is a defining characteristic of Bitcoin, designed to control its issuance and maintain its scarcity over time.

4 月 22 日晚，比特币经历了一个重要的里程碑，完成了第四次减半，这一事件将区块补贴从 6.25 个比特币减半至 3.125 个比特币。这种程序化供应功能是比特币的一个决定性特征，旨在控制其发行并随着时间的推移保持其稀缺性。

Impact on Transaction Fees: A Temporary Surge Driven by Runes

对交易费用的影响：符文驱动的暂时飙升

While the halving itself occurred without major disruptions, the simultaneous launch of a new protocol, Runes, had a profound impact on the network. Runes, a fungible token protocol created by Casey Rodarmor, generated an unprecedented surge in transactional demand as users rushed to create, mint, and transfer runes.

虽然减半本身没有造成重大干扰，但同时推出的新协议 Runes 对网络产生了深远的影响。 Runes 是由 Casey Rodarmor 创建的一种可替代代币协议，随着用户争先恐后地创建、铸造和转移 Runes，交易需求出现了前所未有的激增。

This flurry of activity resulted in a substantial increase in transaction fees, which temporarily benefited miners. Median per block fee rates skyrocketed from 90 sat/vb to a peak of 2,892 sat/vb following the halving. Fees as a proportion of total miner revenue reached an all-time high, both in dollar terms and as a percentage.

这一系列的活动导致交易费用大幅增加，矿工暂时受益。减半后，每区块费用中位数从 90 sat/vb 飙升至 2,892 sat/vb 的峰值。费用占矿工总收入的比例达到历史最高水平，无论是按美元计算还是按百分比计算。

April 20th: A Record-Breaking Day for Miner Revenue

4 月 20 日：矿工收入破纪录的一天

On April 20th, the day following the halving, Bitcoin's miner revenue reached its highest level ever in dollar terms, primarily due to the surge in transaction fees. This provided a welcome buffer for miners who saw their primary source of revenue halved.

4 月 20 日，即减半后的第二天，比特币矿工收入达到以美元计算的历史最高水平，这主要是由于交易费用的飙升。这为主要收入来源减少一半的矿工提供了一个可喜的缓冲。

However, the phenomenon proved short-lived. Less than a week after the launch of Runes, transaction fee rates declined to levels below pre-halving levels.

然而，这种现象被证明是短暂的。 Runes 推出后不到一周，交易费率下降至减半前的水平以下。

Difficulty Adjustment: Miners Maintain Hash Rate

难度调整：矿工维持算力

Despite the reduction in block subsidy, Bitcoin's difficulty, which measures the computational effort required to mine a block, increased by 2.0%. This upward revision suggests that miners did not significantly reduce their hash rate following the halving, indicating continued confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

尽管区块补贴减少，比特币的难度（衡量开采一个区块所需的计算量）仍增加了 2.0%。这一向上修正表明，矿工在减半后并未显着降低算力，表明他们对比特币的长期价值主张仍然充满信心。

Market Reaction: A Modest Rally, but No Price Surge

市场反应：温和反弹，但价格并未飙升

The halving event did not trigger a significant price surge for Bitcoin. While it rallied slightly post-halving, the increase cannot be directly attributed to the event. Risk markets, particularly equities, rallied earlier in the week, potentially influencing Bitcoin's price performance more significantly.

减半事件并未引发比特币价格大幅上涨。虽然减半后小幅上涨，但上涨不能直接归因于该事件。风险市场，特别是股票，本周早些时候上涨，可能对比特币的价格表现产生更显着的影响。

Spot ETF Flows: Mixed Signals from Investors

现货 ETF 流向：投资者发出的混合信号

Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw positive inflows on Monday and Tuesday following the halving, but these reversed on Wednesday. Blackrock's IBIT, which has had a remarkable 71-day inflow streak, has seen zero net inflows in the past two trading days.

减半后，现货交易所交易基金（ETF）在周一和周二出现积极资金流入，但周三出现逆转。贝莱德的 IBIT 曾连续 71 天流入，但过去两个交易日净流入为零。

Global ETF Dynamics: Hong Kong Spot ETFs on the Horizon

全球ETF动态：香港现货ETF即将出现

Traders are anticipating the next potential catalyst for Bitcoin, which may come with the commencement of trading of three spot bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong on April 30th. However, demand for these products may be limited as they are not initially accessible to mainland Chinese investors.

交易员预计比特币的下一个潜在催化剂可能会随着 4 月 30 日在香港开始交易的三只现货比特币 ETF 而出现。然而，对这些产品的需求可能会受到限制，因为中国大陆投资者最初无法获得这些产品。

Financial Market Performance: Mixed Signals

金融市场表现：喜忧参半

Equities ended the week higher, driven by earnings reports from technology companies. Bonds performed mixed, with investment-grade bonds down 0.2%, high-yield bonds up 0.5%, and long-term US Treasuries down 1.2%. Gold fell 2.2% while oil rallied 1.0%.

受科技公司盈利报告的推动，股市本周收高。债券表现参差不齐，投资级债券下跌0.2%，高收益债券上涨0.5%，长期美国国债下跌1.2%。黄金下跌 2.2%，而石油上涨 1.0%。

Conclusion: A Landmark Event with Limited Immediate Impact

结论：具有里程碑意义的事件，其直接影响有限

Bitcoin's fourth halving was a significant event, demonstrating the predictability and programmatic nature of its issuance schedule. While the halving itself had a limited direct impact on price, it highlighted the importance of network dynamics, miner behavior, and the role of speculative activity in shaping Bitcoin's trajectory. As the market continues to mature and evolve, future halving events will provide valuable insights into the resilience and adaptability of Bitcoin's ecosystem.

比特币的第四次减半是一个重大事件，证明了其发行时间表的可预测性和程序性。虽然减半本身对价格的直接影响有限，但它凸显了网络动态、矿工行为以及投机活动在塑造比特币轨迹中的作用的重要性。随着市场的不断成熟和发展，未来的减半事件将为比特币生态系统的弹性和适应性提供有价值的见解。