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2023年4月22日晚,比特幣第四次減半,區塊補貼減少一半至3.125 BTC。減半對費用產生了暫時的影響,由於可替代代幣協議 Runes 的推出,交易需求激增。儘管如此,難度還是小幅增加了2.0%,顯示礦工並沒有透過降低算力來做出反應。儘管比特幣價格在減半後最初上漲,但將其直接歸因於該事件仍然具有挑戰性。
Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: A Deep Dive into the Impact on Network Dynamics and Miner Revenue
比特幣第四次減半:深入探討網路動態和礦工收入的影響
On the evening of April 22nd, Bitcoin underwent a significant milestone with the completion of its fourth halving, an event that halved the block subsidy from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. This programmatic supply function is a defining characteristic of Bitcoin, designed to control its issuance and maintain its scarcity over time.
4 月 22 日晚,比特幣經歷了一個重要的里程碑,完成了第四次減半,這一事件將區塊補貼從 6.25 個比特幣減半至 3.125 個比特幣。這種程序化供應功能是比特幣的決定性特徵,旨在控制其發行並隨著時間的推移保持其稀缺性。
Impact on Transaction Fees: A Temporary Surge Driven by Runes
對交易費用的影響:符文驅動的暫時飆升
While the halving itself occurred without major disruptions, the simultaneous launch of a new protocol, Runes, had a profound impact on the network. Runes, a fungible token protocol created by Casey Rodarmor, generated an unprecedented surge in transactional demand as users rushed to create, mint, and transfer runes.
雖然減半本身沒有造成重大干擾,但同時推出的新協議 Runes 對網路產生了深遠的影響。 Runes 是由 Casey Rodarmor 創建的可替代代幣協議,隨著用戶爭先恐後地創建、鑄造和轉移 Runes,交易需求出現了前所未有的激增。
This flurry of activity resulted in a substantial increase in transaction fees, which temporarily benefited miners. Median per block fee rates skyrocketed from 90 sat/vb to a peak of 2,892 sat/vb following the halving. Fees as a proportion of total miner revenue reached an all-time high, both in dollar terms and as a percentage.
這一系列的活動導致交易費用大幅增加,礦工暫時受益。減半後,每區塊費用中位數從 90 sat/vb 飆升至 2,892 sat/vb 的峰值。費用佔礦工總收入的比例達到歷史最高水平,無論是以美元計算還是按百分比計算。
April 20th: A Record-Breaking Day for Miner Revenue
4 月 20 日:礦工收入破紀錄的一天
On April 20th, the day following the halving, Bitcoin's miner revenue reached its highest level ever in dollar terms, primarily due to the surge in transaction fees. This provided a welcome buffer for miners who saw their primary source of revenue halved.
4 月 20 日,即減半後的第二天,比特幣礦工收入達到以美元計算的歷史最高水平,這主要是由於交易費用的飆升。這為主要收入來源減少一半的礦工提供了一個可喜的緩衝。
However, the phenomenon proved short-lived. Less than a week after the launch of Runes, transaction fee rates declined to levels below pre-halving levels.
然而,這種現像被證明是短暫的。 Runes 推出後不到一周,交易費率下降至減半前的水平以下。
Difficulty Adjustment: Miners Maintain Hash Rate
難度調整:礦工維持算力
Despite the reduction in block subsidy, Bitcoin's difficulty, which measures the computational effort required to mine a block, increased by 2.0%. This upward revision suggests that miners did not significantly reduce their hash rate following the halving, indicating continued confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
儘管區塊補貼減少,比特幣的難度(衡量開採一個區塊所需的運算量)仍增加了 2.0%。這項向上修正表明,礦工在減半後並未顯著降低算力,表明他們對比特幣的長期價值主張仍然充滿信心。
Market Reaction: A Modest Rally, but No Price Surge
市場反應:溫和反彈,但價格並未飆升
The halving event did not trigger a significant price surge for Bitcoin. While it rallied slightly post-halving, the increase cannot be directly attributed to the event. Risk markets, particularly equities, rallied earlier in the week, potentially influencing Bitcoin's price performance more significantly.
減半事件並未引發比特幣價格大幅上漲。雖然減半後小幅上漲,但上漲不能直接歸因於該事件。風險市場,特別是股票,本週稍早上漲,可能對比特幣的價格表現產生更顯著的影響。
Spot ETF Flows: Mixed Signals from Investors
現貨 ETF 流向:投資者發出的混合訊號
Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw positive inflows on Monday and Tuesday following the halving, but these reversed on Wednesday. Blackrock's IBIT, which has had a remarkable 71-day inflow streak, has seen zero net inflows in the past two trading days.
減半後,現貨交易所交易基金(ETF)在周一和周二出現積極資金流入,但周三出現逆轉。貝萊德的 IBIT 曾連續 71 天流入,但過去兩個交易日淨流入為零。
Global ETF Dynamics: Hong Kong Spot ETFs on the Horizon
全球ETF動態:香港現貨ETF即將出現
Traders are anticipating the next potential catalyst for Bitcoin, which may come with the commencement of trading of three spot bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong on April 30th. However, demand for these products may be limited as they are not initially accessible to mainland Chinese investors.
交易員預計比特幣的下一個潛在催化劑可能會隨著 4 月 30 日在香港開始交易的三隻現貨比特幣 ETF 而出現。然而,對這些產品的需求可能會受到限制,因為中國大陸投資者最初無法獲得這些產品。
Financial Market Performance: Mixed Signals
金融市場表現:喜憂參半
Equities ended the week higher, driven by earnings reports from technology companies. Bonds performed mixed, with investment-grade bonds down 0.2%, high-yield bonds up 0.5%, and long-term US Treasuries down 1.2%. Gold fell 2.2% while oil rallied 1.0%.
受科技公司獲利報告的推動,股市本週收高。債券表現參差不齊,投資等級公債下跌0.2%,高收益債券上漲0.5%,長期美國公債下跌1.2%。黃金下跌 2.2%,而石油上漲 1.0%。
Conclusion: A Landmark Event with Limited Immediate Impact
結論:具有里程碑意義的事件,其直接影響有限
Bitcoin's fourth halving was a significant event, demonstrating the predictability and programmatic nature of its issuance schedule. While the halving itself had a limited direct impact on price, it highlighted the importance of network dynamics, miner behavior, and the role of speculative activity in shaping Bitcoin's trajectory. As the market continues to mature and evolve, future halving events will provide valuable insights into the resilience and adaptability of Bitcoin's ecosystem.
比特幣的第四次減半是一個重大事件,證明了其發行時間表的可預測性和程序性。雖然減半本身對價格的直接影響有限,但它凸顯了網路動態、礦工行為以及投機活動在塑造比特幣軌跡中的作用的重要性。隨著市場的不斷成熟和發展,未來的減半事件將為比特幣生態系統的彈性和適應性提供有價值的見解。
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