比特币会遵循黄金到新的历史最高点吗？探索历史链接和预测模型

当投资者在经济动荡中寻求避风港时，一些专家研究了这两个资产之间的联系。但是，这种相关性是系统的，还是隐藏了更复杂的现实？

In April, gold hit a historic high at $3,357 an ounce, sparking a question that has preoccupied investors: will bitcoin follow suit? As capital flows into safe havens amid economic turmoil, some experts highlight a correlation between these two assets. But is this link systematic, or does it hide more complex realities? A deep dive into the data and underlying mechanisms.

4月，黄金以每盎司3,357美元的价格达到了历史悠久的高价，引发了一个让投资者置于投资者的问题：比特币会效仿吗？随着资本在经济动荡中流入避风港，一些专家突出了这两个资产之间的相关性。但是，这种链接是系统的，还是隐藏了更复杂的现实？深入研究数据和潜在机制。

Bitcoin and Gold: Historical Links and Predictive Models

比特币和黄金：历史链接和预测模型

Since 2017, a 30% rise in gold has preceded bitcoin’s surge to $19,120 in 2017, and three years later, the precious metal reached $2,075 before BTC soared to $69,000. These episodes suggest a recurring pattern: bitcoin would react with a delay of 100 to 150 days after gold’s records.

自2017年以来，在2017年比特币的增长到19,120美元之前，黄金增长了30％，三年后，BTC飙升至69,000美元之前，贵金属达到了2,075美元。这些发作表明了一种经常性的模式：比特币会在黄金记录后的100至150天延迟反应。

As Joe Consorti, expert at Theya, summarizes: “When the money printer goes crazy, gold senses inflation first. Bitcoin follows, but with a latency period.” This lag is explained by the capital flows and market psychology. Gold, an ancestral safe haven, first attracts capital during crises.

正如HEAA专家Joe Consorti总结说：“当金钱打印机发疯时，黄金首先感觉到通货膨胀。比特币遵循，但有潜伏期。”资本流和市场心理学解释了这一滞后。黄金是祖先的避风港，首先在危机期间吸引资本。

Later, institutional investors, who are more cautious, turn to bitcoin, which is seen as digital gold and a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies. However, this sequence is not mechanical. In 2022, despite the relative resilience of gold, bitcoin dropped below $20,000 due to a confluence of factors, including several crypto bankruptcies and the threat of rising interest rates.

后来，更加谨慎的机构投资者转向比特币，这被视为数字黄金，也是针对法定货币崩溃的对冲。但是，该序列不是机械的。在2022年，尽管黄金具有相对的弹性，但由于因素汇合，比特币降至20,000美元以下，包括几次加密破产和利率上升的威胁。

This lack of explosiveness compared to previous years is linked to the macroeconomic context. While the dollar weakened and several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment, bitcoin's price movements are also influenced by other factors, such as technological innovations and regulatory developments.

与往年相比，缺乏爆炸性与宏观经济背景有关。尽管美元削弱了几万亿美元的赤字，影响了投资者的情绪，但比特币的价格变动也受到其他因素的影响，例如技术创新和监管发展。

Moreover, several legal cases threaten this asset class. Finally, several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment.

此外，几个法律案件威胁着该资产类别。最后，数万亿美元的赤字被计时了，影响了投资者的情绪。

A mathematical model, the power law, which measures how the distribution of variables in a set varies, adds an intriguing layer to this analysis. By normalizing bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to gold’s, some analysts, such as Anonymus on X, also known as apsk32, foresee a peak at $400,000 by the end of 2025.

一个数学模型，即衡量集合中变量分布的方式变化的功率定律，为该分析增加了一个有趣的层。通过将比特币相对于Gold的市值进行标准化，一些分析师（例如X上的Anonymus）（也称为APSK32）预见到2025年底的峰值为40万美元。

Anonymus predicts a paroxysmal phase between July and November 2025. These projections, though speculative, rely on past cycles where BTC consistently outperformed gold after a delay.

Anonymus预测在2025年7月至11月之间的阵发性阶段。这些预测虽然投机，但依赖于过去的周期，在过去的周期中，BTC在延迟后始终超过黄金。

Macroeconomic Context: Uncertainties Over the Situation

宏观经济背景：对情况的不确定性

Beyond the charts, the gold-Bitcoin duo reflects deeper concerns. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, speaks of a “Minsky moment” for the U.S. economy: an instability where financial excesses precipitate a collapse.

除了图表之外，金 - 比蒂币二人组还反映了更深的关注。 Galaxy Digital的首席执行官Mike Novogratz谈到了美国经济的“明斯基时刻”：这种不稳定的财务超额会导致崩溃。

The weakened dollar, a national debt of $35 trillion, and geopolitical tensions push investors toward tangible assets. In this landscape, bitcoin acts as a barometer of distrust towards traditional systems.

削弱了美元，35万亿美元的国债，地缘政治紧张局势将投资者推向了有形资产。在这个景观中，比特币充当对传统系统不信任的晴雨表。

However, despite this favorable external context, the lack of explosiveness in bitcoin's price compared to previous years can be explained by a confluence of factors.

然而，尽管外部背景如此有利，但与往年相比，比特币价格缺乏爆炸性可以通过因素汇合而解释。

First, several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment. Second, several legal cases threaten this asset class. Finally, several macroeconomic indicators, such as the weakened dollar and geopolitical tensions, are pushing investors toward tangible assets.

首先，数万亿美元的赤字被计时了，影响了投资者的情绪。其次，几个法律案件威胁着该资产类别。最后，几个宏观经济指标，例如弱化的美元和地缘政治紧张局势，都在推动投资者转向有形资产。

In this context, bitcoin is an interesting asset class because it is seen by some as a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies and a final jab at traditional investing instruments.

在这种情况下，比特币是一个有趣的资产类别，因为有些人将其视为对菲亚特货币崩溃的对冲和传统投资工具的最终戳戳。

Yet, despite this favorable external context, the lack of explosiveness in bitcoin's explosiveness can be explained by a confluence of factors.

然而，尽管外部背景如此有利，但比特币爆炸性缺乏爆炸性可以通过因素汇合而解释。

First, several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment. Second, several legal cases threaten this asset class. Finally, several macroeconomic indicators, such as the weakened dollar and geopolitical tensions, are pushing investors toward tangible assets.

首先，数万亿美元的赤字被计时了，影响了投资者的情绪。其次，几个法律案件威胁着该资产类别。最后，几个宏观经济指标，例如弱化的美元和地缘政治紧张局势，都在推动投资者转向有形资产。

In this context, bitcoin is an interesting asset class because it is seen by some as a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies and a final jab at traditional investing instruments.

在这种情况下，比特币是一个有趣的资产类别，因为有些人将其视为对菲亚特货币崩溃的对冲和传统投资工具的最终戳戳。

However, this vision assumes that global investors cross a psychological threshold, treating bitcoin as a legitimate store of value.

但是，这个愿景假设全球投资者越过心理门槛，将比特币视为合法的价值存储。

Ultimately, the relationship between gold and bitcoin is less a reflex than a mirror of economic fears. BTC follows gold… when macro conditions allow. Its growth potential depends as much on monetary policies as on its maturation as a safe-haven asset. The coming months, marked by political tensions and rate adjustments, will be a crucial test. If bitcoin surpasses its 2021 record following gold, the correlation will gain credibility. Otherwise, it will have to assert its independence—a key step in gaining the status of “gold 2.0.”

最终，黄金和比特币之间的关系不如经济恐惧的镜子反射。 BTC遵循黄金……宏观条件允许。它的增长潜力取决于货币政策的成熟程度与避风港资产一样。接下来的几个月以政治紧张局势和费率调整为特征，将是一个至关重要的测试。如果比特币在黄金之后超过其2021年的记录，则相关性将获得信誉。否则，它将必须主张其独立性，这是获得“黄金2.0”地位的关键步骤。