比特幣會遵循黃金到新的歷史最高點嗎？探索歷史鏈接和預測模型

當投資者在經濟動盪中尋求避風港時，一些專家研究了這兩個資產之間的聯繫。但是，這種相關性是系統的，還是隱藏了更複雜的現實？

In April, gold hit a historic high at $3,357 an ounce, sparking a question that has preoccupied investors: will bitcoin follow suit? As capital flows into safe havens amid economic turmoil, some experts highlight a correlation between these two assets. But is this link systematic, or does it hide more complex realities? A deep dive into the data and underlying mechanisms.

4月，黃金以每盎司3,357美元的價格達到了歷史悠久的高價，引發了一個讓投資者置於投資者的問題：比特幣會效仿嗎？隨著資本在經濟動盪中流入避風港，一些專家突出了這兩個資產之間的相關性。但是，這種鏈接是系統的，還是隱藏了更複雜的現實？深入研究數據和潛在機制。

Bitcoin and Gold: Historical Links and Predictive Models

比特幣和黃金：歷史鏈接和預測模型

Since 2017, a 30% rise in gold has preceded bitcoin’s surge to $19,120 in 2017, and three years later, the precious metal reached $2,075 before BTC soared to $69,000. These episodes suggest a recurring pattern: bitcoin would react with a delay of 100 to 150 days after gold’s records.

自2017年以來，在2017年比特幣的增長到19,120美元之前，黃金增長了30％，三年後，BTC飆升至69,000美元之前，貴金屬達到了2,075美元。這些發作表明了一種經常性的模式：比特幣會在黃金記錄後的100至150天延遲反應。

As Joe Consorti, expert at Theya, summarizes: “When the money printer goes crazy, gold senses inflation first. Bitcoin follows, but with a latency period.” This lag is explained by the capital flows and market psychology. Gold, an ancestral safe haven, first attracts capital during crises.

正如HEAA專家Joe Consorti總結說：“當金錢打印機發瘋時，黃金首先感覺到通貨膨脹。比特幣遵循，但有潛伏期。”資本流和市場心理學解釋了這一滯後。黃金是祖先的避風港，首先在危機期間吸引資本。

Later, institutional investors, who are more cautious, turn to bitcoin, which is seen as digital gold and a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies. However, this sequence is not mechanical. In 2022, despite the relative resilience of gold, bitcoin dropped below $20,000 due to a confluence of factors, including several crypto bankruptcies and the threat of rising interest rates.

後來，更加謹慎的機構投資者轉向比特幣，這被視為數字黃金，也是針對法定貨幣崩潰的對沖。但是，該序列不是機械的。在2022年，儘管黃金具有相對的彈性，但由於因素匯合，比特幣降至20,000美元以下，包括幾次加密破產和利率上升的威脅。

This lack of explosiveness compared to previous years is linked to the macroeconomic context. While the dollar weakened and several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment, bitcoin's price movements are also influenced by other factors, such as technological innovations and regulatory developments.

與往年相比，缺乏爆炸性與宏觀經濟背景有關。儘管美元削弱了幾萬億美元的赤字，影響了投資者的情緒，但比特幣的價格變動也受到其他因素的影響，例如技術創新和監管發展。

Moreover, several legal cases threaten this asset class. Finally, several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment.

此外，幾個法律案件威脅著該資產類別。最後，數万億美元的赤字被計時了，影響了投資者的情緒。

A mathematical model, the power law, which measures how the distribution of variables in a set varies, adds an intriguing layer to this analysis. By normalizing bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to gold’s, some analysts, such as Anonymus on X, also known as apsk32, foresee a peak at $400,000 by the end of 2025.

一個數學模型，即衡量集合中變量分佈的方式變化的功率定律，為該分析增加了一個有趣的層。通過將比特幣相對於Gold的市值進行標準化，一些分析師（例如X上的Anonymus）（也稱為APSK32）預見到2025年底的峰值為40萬美元。

Anonymus predicts a paroxysmal phase between July and November 2025. These projections, though speculative, rely on past cycles where BTC consistently outperformed gold after a delay.

Anonymus預測在2025年7月至11月之間的陣發性階段。這些預測雖然投機，但依賴於過去的周期，在過去的周期中，BTC在延遲後始終超過黃金。

Macroeconomic Context: Uncertainties Over the Situation

宏觀經濟背景：對情況的不確定性

Beyond the charts, the gold-Bitcoin duo reflects deeper concerns. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, speaks of a “Minsky moment” for the U.S. economy: an instability where financial excesses precipitate a collapse.

除了圖表之外，金 - 比蒂幣二人組還反映了更深的關注。 Galaxy Digital的首席執行官Mike Novogratz談到了美國經濟的“明斯基時刻”：這種不穩定的財務超額會導致崩潰。

The weakened dollar, a national debt of $35 trillion, and geopolitical tensions push investors toward tangible assets. In this landscape, bitcoin acts as a barometer of distrust towards traditional systems.

削弱了美元，35萬億美元的國債，地緣政治緊張局勢將投資者推向了有形資產。在這個景觀中，比特幣充當對傳統系統不信任的晴雨表。

However, despite this favorable external context, the lack of explosiveness in bitcoin's price compared to previous years can be explained by a confluence of factors.

然而，儘管外部背景如此有利，但與往年相比，比特幣價格缺乏爆炸性可以通過因素匯合而解釋。

First, several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment. Second, several legal cases threaten this asset class. Finally, several macroeconomic indicators, such as the weakened dollar and geopolitical tensions, are pushing investors toward tangible assets.

首先，數万億美元的赤字被計時了，影響了投資者的情緒。其次，幾個法律案件威脅著該資產類別。最後，幾個宏觀經濟指標，例如弱化的美元和地緣政治緊張局勢，都在推動投資者轉向有形資產。

In this context, bitcoin is an interesting asset class because it is seen by some as a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies and a final jab at traditional investing instruments.

在這種情況下，比特幣是一個有趣的資產類別，因為有些人將其視為對菲亞特貨幣崩潰的對沖和傳統投資工具的最終戳戳。

Yet, despite this favorable external context, the lack of explosiveness in bitcoin's explosiveness can be explained by a confluence of factors.

然而，儘管外部背景如此有利，但比特幣爆炸性缺乏爆炸性可以通過因素匯合而解釋。

First, several trillion-dollar deficits were clocked up, impacting investor sentiment. Second, several legal cases threaten this asset class. Finally, several macroeconomic indicators, such as the weakened dollar and geopolitical tensions, are pushing investors toward tangible assets.

首先，數万億美元的赤字被計時了，影響了投資者的情緒。其次，幾個法律案件威脅著該資產類別。最後，幾個宏觀經濟指標，例如弱化的美元和地緣政治緊張局勢，都在推動投資者轉向有形資產。

In this context, bitcoin is an interesting asset class because it is seen by some as a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies and a final jab at traditional investing instruments.

在這種情況下，比特幣是一個有趣的資產類別，因為有些人將其視為對菲亞特貨幣崩潰的對沖和傳統投資工具的最終戳戳。

However, this vision assumes that global investors cross a psychological threshold, treating bitcoin as a legitimate store of value.

但是，這個願景假設全球投資者越過心理門檻，將比特幣視為合法的價值存儲。

Ultimately, the relationship between gold and bitcoin is less a reflex than a mirror of economic fears. BTC follows gold… when macro conditions allow. Its growth potential depends as much on monetary policies as on its maturation as a safe-haven asset. The coming months, marked by political tensions and rate adjustments, will be a crucial test. If bitcoin surpasses its 2021 record following gold, the correlation will gain credibility. Otherwise, it will have to assert its independence—a key step in gaining the status of “gold 2.0.”

最終，黃金和比特幣之間的關係不如經濟恐懼的鏡子反射。 BTC遵循黃金……宏觀條件允許。它的增長潛力取決於貨幣政策的成熟程度與避風港資產一樣。接下來的幾個月以政治緊張局勢和費率調整為特徵，將是一個至關重要的測試。如果比特幣在黃金之後超過其2021年的記錄，則相關性將獲得信譽。否則，它將必須主張其獨立性，這是獲得“黃金2.0”地位的關鍵步驟。