随着比特币减半临近，比特币交易所储备金濒临崩溃

Bybit 表示，如果目前的提款率持续下去，预计交易所的比特币储备将在九个月内耗尽。这主要归因于即将到来的比特币减半，这将使新的 BTC 产量减少 50%。减半加上投资者持有比特币的时间更长，导致新比特币进入流通的速度显着下降。再加上现货比特币 ETF 的日益普及，很可能会加速外汇储备的消耗。

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves on Verge of Exhaustion as Halving Event Looms

随着减半事件的临近，比特币交易所的储备即将耗尽

Amid a surge in investor demand and the anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, exchange reserves of the cryptocurrency are projected to be depleted within the next nine months, according to a recent report by cryptocurrency exchange Bybit. If the current rate of withdrawals continues unabated, the dwindling supply on exchanges could have significant implications for the market.

根据加密货币交易所 Bybit 最近的一份报告，由于投资者需求激增以及对即将到来的比特币减半的预期，加密货币的外汇储备预计将在未来九个月内耗尽。如果目前的提款率持续不减，交易所供应量的减少可能会对市场产生重大影响。

Halving Event and Reduction in BTC Supply

Halving Event and Reduction in BTC Supply

The impending halving event, scheduled to occur approximately every four years, is poised to reduce the issuance of new bitcoins per block by 50%. This reduction will significantly decrease the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation, contributing to the depletion of exchange reserves.

即将到来的减半事件预计大约每四年发生一次，预计每个区块的新比特币发行量将减少 50%。这种减少将大大降低新比特币进入流通的速度，从而导致外汇储备的耗尽。

Investor Holding Patterns and Lengthening Bitcoin Hodling Period

投资者持有模式与延长比特币持有期

Bybit's analysis also highlights a noticeable trend among investors: they are holding onto their Bitcoins for longer periods, further exacerbating the supply shortage on exchanges. This shift in investor behavior indicates a growing recognition of Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

Bybit的分析还凸显了投资者中一个明显的趋势：他们持有比特币的时间更长，这进一步加剧了交易所的供应短缺。投资者行为的这种转变表明人们越来越认识到比特币的长期价值主张。

Three-Year Low in Exchange Reserves

外汇储备创三年新低

As of April 16, the total amount of Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges had plunged to a three-year low, according to CryptoQuant. This decline underscores the rapid pace at which exchanges are being drained of their Bitcoin holdings.

据 CryptoQuant 称，截至 4 月 16 日，中心化交易所的比特币储备总量已跌至三年来的最低点。这种下降凸显了交易所持有的比特币正在迅速被耗尽。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Accelerated Exchange Reserve Depletion

现货比特币 ETF 和外汇储备加速耗尽

The introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could further accelerate the depletion of exchange reserves. A daily inflow of $500 million into Bitcoin ETFs would result in daily withdrawals of approximately 7,142 BTC from exchanges, potentially exhausting the reserves within nine months.

现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出可能会进一步加速外汇储备的消耗。每天流入比特币 ETF 的 5 亿美元将导致每天从交易所提取约 7,142 BTC，可能会在 9 个月内耗尽储备。

Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow Ratio and Growing Scarcity

比特币的存量与流量之比和日益稀缺

Bybit's study also examines the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, a metric used to gauge the scarcity of a commodity. Bitcoin's S2F ratio is currently 56 and is projected to double to 112 after the upcoming halving. This anticipated increase underscores Bitcoin's growing scarcity relative to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, which has an S2F ratio of 60.

Bybit 的研究还考察了库存流量 (S2F) 比率，这是一种用于衡量商品稀缺性的指标。比特币的 S2F 比率目前为 56，预计在即将到来的减半后将翻倍至 112。这一预期的增长突显了比特币相对于黄金等传统避险资产的日益稀缺性，黄金的 S2F 比率为 60。

Institutional and Retail Confidence in Bitcoin

机构和散户对比特币的信心

Institutional and retail investors are increasingly embracing Bitcoin as a valuable asset. Institutions reportedly allocate an average of 40% of their total assets to Bitcoin, while retail investors dedicate 24%. This growing commitment to Bitcoin investments, coupled with the anticipation of further scarcity, is shaping investor strategies.

机构和散户投资者越来越多地将比特币视为一种有价值的资产。据报道，机构平均将其总资产的 40% 分配给比特币，而散户投资者则将 24% 分配给比特币。对比特币投资的日益增长的承诺，加上对比特币进一步稀缺的预期，正在影响投资者的策略。

Market Implications and Long-Term Outlook

市场影响和长期展望

Despite a recent market downturn, with Bitcoin prices dropping over 10% in the past week, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The anticipated supply squeeze is expected to drive prices higher in the coming months.

尽管最近市场低迷，比特币价格在过去一周下跌了 10% 以上，但长期前景仍然看涨。预期的供应紧张预计将在未来几个月推高价格。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市场状况

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,851, down 2% in the last 24 hours. The recent downside action may represent a temporary setback, but the underlying fundamentals remain strong, pointing to a sustained bull market in the future.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 62,851 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 2%。近期的下行走势可能只是暂时的挫折，但基本面仍然强劲，预示着未来的持续牛市。