隨著比特幣減半接近，比特幣交易所儲備金瀕臨崩潰

Bybit 表示，如果目前的提領率持續下去，預計交易所的比特幣儲備將在九個月內耗盡。這主要歸因於即將到來的比特幣減半，這將使新的 BTC 產量減少 50%。減半加上投資者持有比特幣的時間更長，導致新比特幣進入流通的速度顯著下降。再加上現貨比特幣 ETF 的日益普及，很可能會加速外匯存底的消耗。

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves on Verge of Exhaustion as Halving Event Looms

隨著減半事件的臨近，比特幣交易所的儲備即將耗盡

Amid a surge in investor demand and the anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, exchange reserves of the cryptocurrency are projected to be depleted within the next nine months, according to a recent report by cryptocurrency exchange Bybit. If the current rate of withdrawals continues unabated, the dwindling supply on exchanges could have significant implications for the market.

根據加密貨幣交易所 Bybit 最近的一份報告，由於投資者需求激增以及對即將到來的比特幣減半的預期，加密貨幣的外匯儲備預計將在未來九個月內耗盡。如果目前的提領率持續不減，交易所供應量的減少可能會對市場產生重大影響。

Halving Event and Reduction in BTC Supply

減半事件和BTC供應減少

The impending halving event, scheduled to occur approximately every four years, is poised to reduce the issuance of new bitcoins per block by 50%. This reduction will significantly decrease the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation, contributing to the depletion of exchange reserves.

即將到來的減半事件預計大約每四年發生一次，預計每個區塊的新比特幣發行量將減少 50%。這種減少將大大降低新比特幣進入流通的速度，從而導致外匯存底的耗盡。

Investor Holding Patterns and Lengthening Bitcoin Hodling Period

投資者持有模式與延長比特幣持有期

Bybit's analysis also highlights a noticeable trend among investors: they are holding onto their Bitcoins for longer periods, further exacerbating the supply shortage on exchanges. This shift in investor behavior indicates a growing recognition of Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

Bybit的分析也凸顯了投資者中一個明顯的趨勢：他們持有比特幣的時間更長，這進一步加劇了交易所的供應短缺。投資者行為的這種轉變顯示人們越來越認識到比特幣的長期價值主張。

Three-Year Low in Exchange Reserves

外匯存底創三年新低

As of April 16, the total amount of Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges had plunged to a three-year low, according to CryptoQuant. This decline underscores the rapid pace at which exchanges are being drained of their Bitcoin holdings.

據 CryptoQuant 稱，截至 4 月 16 日，中心化交易所的比特幣儲備總量已跌至三年來的最低點。這種下降凸顯了交易所持有的比特幣正在迅速耗盡。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Accelerated Exchange Reserve Depletion

現貨比特幣 ETF 和外匯儲備加速耗盡

The introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could further accelerate the depletion of exchange reserves. A daily inflow of $500 million into Bitcoin ETFs would result in daily withdrawals of approximately 7,142 BTC from exchanges, potentially exhausting the reserves within nine months.

現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出可能會進一步加速外匯存底的消耗。每天流入比特幣 ETF 的 5 億美元將導致每天從交易所提取約 7,142 BTC，可能在 9 個月內耗盡儲備。

Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow Ratio and Growing Scarcity

比特幣的存量與流量之比和日益稀缺

Bybit's study also examines the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, a metric used to gauge the scarcity of a commodity. Bitcoin's S2F ratio is currently 56 and is projected to double to 112 after the upcoming halving. This anticipated increase underscores Bitcoin's growing scarcity relative to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, which has an S2F ratio of 60.

Bybit 的研究還檢視了庫存流量 (S2F) 比率，這是用於衡量商品稀缺性的指標。比特幣的 S2F 比率目前為 56，預計在即將到來的減半後將翻倍至 112。這一預期的增長突顯了比特幣相對於黃金等傳統避險資產的日益稀缺性，黃金的 S2F 比率為 60。

Institutional and Retail Confidence in Bitcoin

機構和散戶對比特幣的信心

Institutional and retail investors are increasingly embracing Bitcoin as a valuable asset. Institutions reportedly allocate an average of 40% of their total assets to Bitcoin, while retail investors dedicate 24%. This growing commitment to Bitcoin investments, coupled with the anticipation of further scarcity, is shaping investor strategies.

Institutional and retail investors are increasingly embracing Bitcoin as a valuable asset. Institutions reportedly allocate an average of 40% of their total assets to Bitcoin, while retail investors dedicate 24%. This growing commitment to Bitcoin investments, coupled with the anticipation of further scarcity, is shaping investor strategies.

Market Implications and Long-Term Outlook

市場影響與長期展望

Despite a recent market downturn, with Bitcoin prices dropping over 10% in the past week, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The anticipated supply squeeze is expected to drive prices higher in the coming months.

Despite a recent market downturn, with Bitcoin prices dropping over 10% in the past week, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The anticipated supply squeeze is expected to drive prices higher in the coming months.

Current Market Conditions

目前的市場狀況

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,851, down 2% in the last 24 hours. The recent downside action may represent a temporary setback, but the underlying fundamentals remain strong, pointing to a sustained bull market in the future.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 62,851 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 2%。近期的下行勢可能只是暫時的挫折，但基本面仍然強勁，預示著未來的持續牛市。