比特币与以太坊：哪一个将在一月份的反弹中提供最强的回报？

随着新的一年的开始，加密市场正在发生重大转变。由于比特币近期崩盘后的不确定性迫在眉睫，新的资本正在撤离比特币。

As 2023 begins, a major shift is occurring in the crypto market. Fresh capital is moving away from Bitcoin (BTC) due to uncertainty following its recent crash. Investors are hesitant, unsure of what the future holds.

2023 年伊始，加密市场正在发生重大转变。由于比特币最近崩盘后的不确定性，新资本正在撤离比特币。投资者犹豫不决，不确定未来会怎样。

However, amidst the ongoing macroeconomic turbulence, particularly concerns about a looming debt crisis in the U.S., fears are rising that the Bitcoin cycle of 2022 could repeat itself.

然而，在持续的宏观经济动荡中，尤其是对美国迫在眉睫的债务危机的担忧，人们越来越担心 2022 年的比特币周期可能会重演。

In the thick of it all, Ethereum (ETH) is gaining serious traction. Its strong historical performance in January is catching the attention of many investors.

最重要的是，以太坊（ETH）正在获得巨大的关注。其1月份强劲的历史表现吸引了众多投资者的关注。

As Q1 approaches and the market continues to shift, the question remains: Which crypto will offer the strongest returns in 2023 – Bitcoin or Ethereum? It's time to weigh your options and decide where to place your bets.

随着第一季度的临近和市场的不断变化，问题依然存在：哪种加密货币将在 2023 年提供最强的回报——比特币还是以太坊？是时候权衡您的选择并决定在哪里下注了。

Ethereum/Bitcoin January rally in focus

以太坊/比特币一月反弹成为焦点

According to historical trends, Q1 is usually a strong quarter for crypto. While Bitcoin tends to grab the headlines, Ethereum has consistently outperformed with stronger price gains.

根据历史趋势，第一季度通常是加密货币的强劲季度。虽然比特币往往会成为头条新闻，但以太坊的表现始终优于其他市场，价格涨幅更大。

Around mid-January, the ETH/BTC pair typically sees a series of green candlesticks, often indicating a surge in capital inflows by February. This year, Ethereum soared by 85%, reaching $4,087 by mid-March.

1 月中旬左右，ETH/BTC 货币对通常会出现一系列绿色烛台，通常表明 2 月份资本流入激增。今年，以太坊飙升了 85%，到 3 月中旬达到 4,087 美元。

But it's not just the charts that matter. Mid-January is also a critical time for governments as they finalize their annual budgets. And this year, the stakes are higher than ever.

但重要的不仅仅是图表。一月中旬也是各国政府最终确定年度预算的关键时刻。今年，风险比以往任何时候都更高。

With the new administration planning to tackle a whopping $7 trillion debt and cut spending, the pressure is on. Add to that the growing debate over raising the debt ceiling, and we're in for a volatile mix.

随着新政府计划解决高达 7 万亿美元的债务并削减支出，压力越来越大。再加上关于提高债务上限的争论日益激烈，我们将面临一个不稳定的局面。

In short, the government's approach to addressing its debt could create even bigger financial challenges down the line.

简而言之，政府解决债务问题的方法可能会带来更大的财务挑战。

But will Bitcoin emerge as a safer bet?

但比特币会成为一种更安全的选择吗？

It's a high-stakes gamble. Bitcoin's recent drop from its ATH of $108K to $92K signals a tough market environment, with investors staying cautious.

这是一场高风险的赌博。比特币最近从 10.8 万美元跌至 9.2 万美元，表明市场环境严峻，投资者保持谨慎。

Retail FOMO is on hold – unless a significant dip sparks a buying frenzy. Now, it's up to the big players to drive a supply shock.

零售业的 FOMO 被搁置——除非大幅下跌引发购买狂潮。现在，需要由大公司来推动供应冲击。

With 2025 shaping up to be volatile, the answer seems clear: Bitcoin may not be the safe bet just yet.

随着 2025 年的动荡，答案似乎很明确：比特币可能还不是安全的选择。

What adds more uncertainty is Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) control, which has dipped to 62.31%. In contrast, Ethereum's LTH stands strong at 75.06%.

增加更多不确定性的是比特币的长期持有者（LTH）控制权，已降至 62.31%。相比之下，以太坊的 LTH 保持在 75.06% 的强劲水平。

Bitcoin's LTH percentage has been slipping since March, when BTC hit $73K, continuing to fall even after new ATHs.

自 3 月份 BTC 触及 7.3 万美元以来，比特币的 LTH 百分比一直在下滑，即使在出现新的 ATH 后，该比例仍在继续下降。

Meanwhile, Ethereum has been on a steady uptrend, with its LTH control growing in tandem with its rally to $4K. The message is clear: Ethereum's long-term holders are confident and committed.

与此同时，以太坊一直处于稳定的上升趋势，其 LTH 控制权随着其涨至 4000 美元而同步增长。信息很明确：以太坊的长期持有者充满信心并坚定不移。

This shift is crucial for one key reason: Retail investors often turn to LTH metrics as a sign of market confidence. Ethereum's growing LTH base is a strong indicator of stability.

这种转变之所以至关重要，有一个关键原因：散户投资者经常将 LTH 指标视为市场信心的标志。以太坊不断增长的 LTH 基数是稳定性的有力指标。

When you factor in Ethereum's solid historical performance in January and its strengthening long-term holder support, it's clear that Ethereum is poised to take the lead, potentially leaving Bitcoin behind.

当你考虑到以太坊一月份稳健的历史表现及其不断增强的长期持有者支持时，很明显以太坊将占据领先地位，有可能将比特币抛在后面。

But the true catalyst is still to come. Stay alert during this high-stakes month. It could set the stage for a year of big moves and even bigger opportunities for your portfolio.

但真正的催化剂尚未到来。在这个高风险的月份保持警惕。它可能为一年的重大变动奠定基础，甚至为你的投资组合带来更大的机会。