比特幣與以太坊：哪一個將在一月的反彈中提供最強的回報？

隨著新的一年的開始，加密市場正在發生重大轉變。由於比特幣近期崩盤後的不確定性迫在眉睫，新的資本正在撤離比特幣。

As 2023 begins, a major shift is occurring in the crypto market. Fresh capital is moving away from Bitcoin (BTC) due to uncertainty following its recent crash. Investors are hesitant, unsure of what the future holds.

2023 年伊始，加密市場正在發生重大轉變。由於比特幣最近崩盤後的不確定性，新資本正在撤離比特幣。投資者猶豫不決，不確定未來會怎樣。

However, amidst the ongoing macroeconomic turbulence, particularly concerns about a looming debt crisis in the U.S., fears are rising that the Bitcoin cycle of 2022 could repeat itself.

然而，在持續的宏觀經濟動盪中，尤其是對美國迫在眉睫的債務危機的擔憂，人們越來越擔心 2022 年的比特幣週期可能會重演。

In the thick of it all, Ethereum (ETH) is gaining serious traction. Its strong historical performance in January is catching the attention of many investors.

最重要的是，以太坊（ETH）正在獲得巨大的關注。其1月份強勁的歷史表現吸引了許多投資者的注意。

As Q1 approaches and the market continues to shift, the question remains: Which crypto will offer the strongest returns in 2023 – Bitcoin or Ethereum? It's time to weigh your options and decide where to place your bets.

隨著第一季的臨近和市場的不斷變化，問題依然存在：哪種加密貨幣將在 2023 年提供最強的回報——比特幣還是以太坊？是時候權衡您的選擇並決定在哪裡下注了。

Ethereum/Bitcoin January rally in focus

以太幣/比特幣一月反彈成為焦點

According to historical trends, Q1 is usually a strong quarter for crypto. While Bitcoin tends to grab the headlines, Ethereum has consistently outperformed with stronger price gains.

根據歷史趨勢，第一季通常是加密貨幣的強勁季度。雖然比特幣往往成為頭條新聞，但以太坊的表現始終優於其他市場，價格漲幅更大。

Around mid-January, the ETH/BTC pair typically sees a series of green candlesticks, often indicating a surge in capital inflows by February. This year, Ethereum soared by 85%, reaching $4,087 by mid-March.

1 月中旬左右，ETH/BTC 貨幣對通常會出現一系列綠色燭台，通常表明 2 月資本流入激增。今年，以太幣飆升了 85%，到 3 月中旬達到 4,087 美元。

But it's not just the charts that matter. Mid-January is also a critical time for governments as they finalize their annual budgets. And this year, the stakes are higher than ever.

但重要的不僅僅是圖表。一月中旬也是各國政府最終確定年度預算的關鍵時刻。今年，風險比以往任何時候都更高。

With the new administration planning to tackle a whopping $7 trillion debt and cut spending, the pressure is on. Add to that the growing debate over raising the debt ceiling, and we're in for a volatile mix.

隨著新政府計劃解決高達 7 兆美元的債務並削減支出，壓力越來越大。再加上關於提高債務上限的爭論日益激烈，我們將面臨一個不穩定的局面。

In short, the government's approach to addressing its debt could create even bigger financial challenges down the line.

簡而言之，政府解決債務問題的方法可能會帶來更大的財務挑戰。

But will Bitcoin emerge as a safer bet?

但比特幣會成為更安全的選擇嗎？

It's a high-stakes gamble. Bitcoin's recent drop from its ATH of $108K to $92K signals a tough market environment, with investors staying cautious.

這是一場高風險的賭博。比特幣最近從 10.8 萬美元跌至 9.2 萬美元，顯示市場環境嚴峻，投資者保持謹慎。

Retail FOMO is on hold – unless a significant dip sparks a buying frenzy. Now, it's up to the big players to drive a supply shock.

零售業的 FOMO 被擱置——除非大幅下跌引發購買狂潮。現在，需要由大公司來推動供應衝擊。

With 2025 shaping up to be volatile, the answer seems clear: Bitcoin may not be the safe bet just yet.

隨著 2025 年的動盪，答案似乎很明確：比特幣可能還不是安全的選擇。

What adds more uncertainty is Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) control, which has dipped to 62.31%. In contrast, Ethereum's LTH stands strong at 75.06%.

增加更多不確定性的是比特幣的長期持有者（LTH）控制權，已降至 62.31%。相比之下，以太坊的 LTH 保持在 75.06% 的強勁水平。

Bitcoin's LTH percentage has been slipping since March, when BTC hit $73K, continuing to fall even after new ATHs.

自 3 月 BTC 觸及 7.3 萬美元以來，比特幣的 LTH 百分比一直在下滑，即使在出現新的 ATH 後，該比例仍在繼續下降。

Meanwhile, Ethereum has been on a steady uptrend, with its LTH control growing in tandem with its rally to $4K. The message is clear: Ethereum's long-term holders are confident and committed.

與此同時，以太坊一直處於穩定的上升趨勢，其 LTH 控制權隨著其漲至 4000 美元而同步增長。訊息很明確：以太坊的長期持有者充滿信心並堅定不移。

This shift is crucial for one key reason: Retail investors often turn to LTH metrics as a sign of market confidence. Ethereum's growing LTH base is a strong indicator of stability.

這種轉變之所以至關重要，有一個關鍵原因：散戶經常將 LTH 指標視為市場信心的標誌。以太坊不斷增長的 LTH 基數是穩定性的強大指標。

When you factor in Ethereum's solid historical performance in January and its strengthening long-term holder support, it's clear that Ethereum is poised to take the lead, potentially leaving Bitcoin behind.

當你考慮到以太坊一月份穩健的歷史表現及其不斷增強的長期持有者支持時，很明顯以太坊將佔據領先地位，有可能將比特幣拋在後面。

But the true catalyst is still to come. Stay alert during this high-stakes month. It could set the stage for a year of big moves and even bigger opportunities for your portfolio.

但真正的催化劑尚未到來。在這個高風險的月份保持警惕。它可能為一年的重大變動奠定基礎，甚至為你的投資組合帶來更大的機會。