比特币ETF扭转流出趋势，表明市场乐观

比特币ETF资金连续五天流出后，出现了积极迹象。昨天交易时段出现净流入，扭转了近期的资金流出趋势。 Grayscale 的 GBTC 是最大的比特币 ETF，自 1 月份开始交易以来，资金持续流出。然而，贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 和富达 (Fidelity) 的 FBTC 等其他 ETF 一直出现资本流入。趋势的转变主要归因于 GBTC 的流出减少，而 IBIT 和 FBTC 保持稳定的流入。第一季度末和即将到来的4月减半事件可能会进一步刺激资金流入比特币ETF。今天的交易时段将提供有关趋势反转是否持续或只是暂时中断的见解。

Bitcoin ETFs Witness Reversal of Outflows, Signaling Market Optimism

比特币 ETF 见证资金流出逆转，表明市场乐观

After a string of consecutive days marked by capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the tide has turned, signaling a resurgence of investor confidence in the digital asset. This positive shift, evident in data released yesterday, provides a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

在连续几天出现比特币 ETF 资本外流之后，趋势发生了逆转，表明投资者对数字资产的信心有所回升。昨天发布的数据显示了这种积极的转变，为比特币的上涨轨迹带来了一线希望。

Outflows From Bitcoin ETFs: A Brief History

比特币 ETF 资金流出：简史

Since March 18th, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a consistent pattern of capital outflows, spanning five consecutive trading sessions. Notably, Grayscale's GBTC, the largest Bitcoin ETF, has faced persistent outflows since its inception on January 11th, with capital being withdrawn almost every day.

自3月18日以来，比特币ETF经历了持续的资金流出模式，连续五个交易日。值得注意的是，灰度旗下最大的比特币ETF GBTC自1月11日成立以来，一直面临资金外流，几乎每天都有资金撤出。

This steady exodus has significantly depleted GBTC's Bitcoin holdings, plummeting from approximately 620,000 BTC on January 10th to below 350,000 currently. The outflows continue, fueled by competition from other ETFs with lower commission costs.

这种稳定的外流导致 GBTC 的比特币持有量大幅减少，从 1 月 10 日的约 620,000 BTC 暴跌至目前的 350,000 以下。由于来自其他佣金成本较低的 ETF 的竞争，资金外流仍在继续。

In contrast to GBTC, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have remained steadfast, consistently displaying inflows of capital since their launch. The divergence in performance between GBTC and its peers stems from the magnitude of their respective daily movements.

与 GBTC 相比，贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 和富达 (Fidelity) 的 FBTC 自推出以来一直保持稳定的资金流入。 GBTC 与其同行之间的表现差异源于各自每日波动的幅度。

Inflows: A Path to Recovery

资金流入：复苏之路

Following the initial downturn in January, overall inflows into Bitcoin ETFs began to rebound, primarily driven by a reduction in outflows from GBTC. While outflows from Grayscale's ETF initially exceeded $400 million per day, they have since dwindled below $100 million daily.

继 1 月份最初的低迷之后，比特币 ETF 的整体流入开始反弹，这主要是由于 GBTC 流出减少所致。虽然 Grayscale ETF 的资金流出最初每天超过 4 亿美元，但此后已降至每日 1 亿美元以下。

This steady decline in outflows, coupled with modest inflows from IBIT and FBTC, reversed the negative trend observed in January. The positive momentum continued until March 15th, propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs above $73,800.

流出量的稳步下降，加上 IBIT 和 FBTC 的适度流入，扭转了 1 月份观察到的负面趋势。这种积极势头一直持续到 3 月 15 日，推动比特币升至 73,800 美元以上的历史新高。

Correction and Reversal

修正与逆转

However, the market dynamics shifted again last Monday, with GBTC outflows surging back above $300 million and reaching a peak of -$642 million on the same day. While IBIT and FBTC absorbed over $100 million daily, the overall trend had turned negative.

然而，上周一市场动态再次发生变化，GBTC 流出量飙升至 3 亿美元以上，并于当天达到 6.42 亿美元的峰值。虽然 IBIT 和 FBTC 每天吸纳超过 1 亿美元，但整体趋势已转为负面。

Fortunately, this downturn appears to have been short-lived, spanning only a week. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a temporary correction, with the price dipping below $61,000. Notably, Bitcoin's recovery above $60,000 on February 28th suggests that the recent decline was merely a temporary setback and did not disrupt the medium-term growth trend.

幸运的是，这种低迷似乎是短暂的，只持续了一周。在此期间，比特币经历了短暂的回调，价格跌破了61000美元。值得注意的是，比特币在 2 月 28 日反弹至 6 万美元上方，表明近期的下跌只是暂时的挫折，并没有扰乱中期增长趋势。

Renewed Inflows: A Beacon of Hope

重新流入：希望的灯塔

Yesterday's market data provides a glimmer of optimism, with outflows from GBTC remaining significant but offset by higher inflows from other ETFs. While a single positive data point cannot confirm a trend reversal, it offers a tentative indication of a shift in sentiment.

昨天的市场数据带来了一丝乐观情绪，GBTC 的资金流出量仍然很大，但被其他 ETF 的资金流入增加所抵消。虽然单个积极数据点无法确认趋势逆转，但它提供了情绪转变的初步迹象。

IBIT's modest inflow of $35 million yesterday was eclipsed by FBTC's impressive $262 million. As of today, IBIT holds approximately 243,000 BTC, while FBTC stands at 136,000. BlackRock's IBIT maintains its dominance as the primary challenger to GBTC, boasting nearly twice the Bitcoin holdings of the third-ranked ETF.

昨天 IBIT 的 3500 万美元的温和流入被 FBTC 令人印象深刻的 2.62 亿美元的流入所掩盖。截至目前，IBIT 持有约 243,000 BTC，而 FBTC 持有 136,000 BTC。贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 继续保持其作为 GBTC 主要挑战者的主导地位，其比特币持有量几乎是排名第三的 ETF 的两倍。

Factors Influencing ETF Inflows

影响ETF流入的因素

The end of the first quarter of 2024, approaching on March 31st, may provide a catalyst for additional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Moreover, the upcoming halving event in April, projected to occur around the 20th, could draw new capital to Bitcoin.

2024 年第一季度末即将于 3 月 31 日到来，这可能会为比特币 ETF 的额外资金流入提供催化剂。此外，即将到来的 4 月减半事件（预计将于 20 日左右发生）可能会为比特币吸引新的资金。

Conclusion

结论

The recent reversal of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs signals a renewed bullish sentiment among investors. Although the market remains volatile, the positive data from yesterday offers a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin's continued growth. As the end of the quarter and the halving approach, the potential for even greater inflows exists, further fueling Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

最近比特币 ETF 资金流出的逆转标志着投资者重新看涨情绪。尽管市场依然波动，但昨天的积极数据为比特币的持续增长带来了一线希望。随着本季度末和减半的临近，存在更大资金流入的潜力，进一步推动比特币的上涨轨迹。