比特幣ETF扭轉流出趨勢，顯示市場樂觀

比特幣ETF資金連續五天流出後，出現了正面跡象。昨天交易時段出現淨流入，扭轉了近期的資金流出趨勢。 Grayscale 的 GBTC 是最大的比特幣 ETF，自 1 月開始交易以來，資金持續流出。然而，貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 和富達 (Fidelity) 的 FBTC 等其他 ETF 一直出現資本流入。趨勢的轉變主要歸因於 GBTC 的流出減少，而 IBIT 和 FBTC 保持穩定的流入。第一季末和即將到來的4月減半事件可能會進一步刺激資金流入比特幣ETF。今天的交易時段將提供有關趨勢反轉是否持續或只是暫時中斷的見解。

Bitcoin ETFs Witness Reversal of Outflows, Signaling Market Optimism

比特幣 ETF 見證資金流出逆轉，顯示市場樂觀

After a string of consecutive days marked by capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the tide has turned, signaling a resurgence of investor confidence in the digital asset. This positive shift, evident in data released yesterday, provides a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

在連續幾天出現比特幣 ETF 資本外流之後，趨勢發生了逆轉，顯示投資者對數位資產的信心有所回升。昨天發布的數據顯示了這種積極的轉變，為比特幣的上漲軌跡帶來了一線希望。

Outflows From Bitcoin ETFs: A Brief History

比特幣 ETF 資金流出：簡史

Since March 18th, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a consistent pattern of capital outflows, spanning five consecutive trading sessions. Notably, Grayscale's GBTC, the largest Bitcoin ETF, has faced persistent outflows since its inception on January 11th, with capital being withdrawn almost every day.

自3月18日以來，比特幣ETF經歷了持續的資金流出模式，連續五個交易日。值得注意的是，灰階旗下最大的比特幣ETF GBTC自1月11日成立以來，一直面臨資金外流，幾乎每天都有資金撤出。

This steady exodus has significantly depleted GBTC's Bitcoin holdings, plummeting from approximately 620,000 BTC on January 10th to below 350,000 currently. The outflows continue, fueled by competition from other ETFs with lower commission costs.

這種穩定的外流導致 GBTC 的比特幣持有量大幅減少，從 1 月 10 日的約 620,000 BTC 暴跌至目前的 350,000 以下。由於其他佣金成本較低的 ETF 的競爭，資金外​​流仍在繼續。

In contrast to GBTC, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have remained steadfast, consistently displaying inflows of capital since their launch. The divergence in performance between GBTC and its peers stems from the magnitude of their respective daily movements.

與 GBTC 相比，貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 和富達 (Fidelity) 的 FBTC 自推出以來一直保持穩定的資金流入。 GBTC 與其同業之間的表現差異源自於各自每日波動的幅度。

Inflows: A Path to Recovery

資金流入：復甦之路

Following the initial downturn in January, overall inflows into Bitcoin ETFs began to rebound, primarily driven by a reduction in outflows from GBTC. While outflows from Grayscale's ETF initially exceeded $400 million per day, they have since dwindled below $100 million daily.

繼 1 月最初的低迷之後，比特幣 ETF 的整體流入開始反彈，這主要是由於 GBTC 流出減少所致。雖然 Grayscale ETF 的資金流出最初每天超過 4 億美元，但此後已降至每日 1 億美元以下。

This steady decline in outflows, coupled with modest inflows from IBIT and FBTC, reversed the negative trend observed in January. The positive momentum continued until March 15th, propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs above $73,800.

流出量的穩定下降，加上 IBIT 和 FBTC 的適度流入，扭轉了 1 月觀察到的負面趨勢。這種積極勢頭一直持續到 3 月 15 日，推動比特幣升至 73,800 美元以上的歷史新高。

Correction and Reversal

修正與逆轉

However, the market dynamics shifted again last Monday, with GBTC outflows surging back above $300 million and reaching a peak of -$642 million on the same day. While IBIT and FBTC absorbed over $100 million daily, the overall trend had turned negative.

然而，上週一市場動態再次發生變化，GBTC 流出量飆升至 3 億美元以上，並在當天達到 6.42 億美元的峰值。雖然 IBIT 和 FBTC 每天吸收超過 1 億美元，但整體趨勢已轉為負面。

Fortunately, this downturn appears to have been short-lived, spanning only a week. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a temporary correction, with the price dipping below $61,000. Notably, Bitcoin's recovery above $60,000 on February 28th suggests that the recent decline was merely a temporary setback and did not disrupt the medium-term growth trend.

幸運的是，這種低迷似乎是短暫的，只持續了一週。在此期間，比特幣經歷了短暫的回調，價格跌破了61,000美元。值得注意的是，比特幣在 2 月 28 日反彈至 6 萬美元上方，顯示近期的下跌只是暫時的挫折，並沒有擾亂中期成長趨勢。

Renewed Inflows: A Beacon of Hope

重新流入：希望的燈塔

Yesterday's market data provides a glimmer of optimism, with outflows from GBTC remaining significant but offset by higher inflows from other ETFs. While a single positive data point cannot confirm a trend reversal, it offers a tentative indication of a shift in sentiment.

昨天的市場數據帶來了一絲樂觀情緒，GBTC 的資金流出量仍然很大，但被其他 ETF 的資金流入增加所抵消。雖然單一積極數據點無法確認趨勢逆轉，但它提供了情緒轉變的初步跡象。

IBIT's modest inflow of $35 million yesterday was eclipsed by FBTC's impressive $262 million. As of today, IBIT holds approximately 243,000 BTC, while FBTC stands at 136,000. BlackRock's IBIT maintains its dominance as the primary challenger to GBTC, boasting nearly twice the Bitcoin holdings of the third-ranked ETF.

昨天 IBIT 的 3500 萬美元的溫和流入被 FBTC 令人印象深刻的 2.62 億美元的流入所掩蓋。截至目前，IBIT 持有約 243,000 BTC，而 FBTC 持有 136,000 BTC。貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 繼續保持其作為 GBTC 主要挑戰者的主導地位，其比特幣持有量幾乎是排名第三的 ETF 的兩倍。

Factors Influencing ETF Inflows

影響ETF流入的因素

The end of the first quarter of 2024, approaching on March 31st, may provide a catalyst for additional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Moreover, the upcoming halving event in April, projected to occur around the 20th, could draw new capital to Bitcoin.

2024 年第一季末即將於 3 月 31 日到來，這可能會為比特幣 ETF 的額外資金流入提供催化劑。此外，即將到來的 4 月減半事件（預計將於 20 日左右發生）可能會為比特幣吸引新的資金。

Conclusion

結論

The recent reversal of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs signals a renewed bullish sentiment among investors. Although the market remains volatile, the positive data from yesterday offers a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin's continued growth. As the end of the quarter and the halving approach, the potential for even greater inflows exists, further fueling Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

最近比特幣 ETF 資金流出的逆轉標誌著投資者重新看漲情緒。儘管市場依然波動，但昨天的積極數據為比特幣的持續成長帶來了一線希望。隨著本季末和減半的臨近，存在更大資金流入的潛力，進一步推動比特幣的上漲軌跡。