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尽管自 7 月份以来比特币需求放缓,但美国 ETF 一直在稳步提高人们对加密货币的兴趣。这一发展的关键参与者是 BlackRock 的 IBIT ETF
Bitcoin’s demand has remained stagnant in recent months, following a trend observed during previous bull cycles in 2016 and 2020. Interest in the leading cryptocurrency has plateaued since July, leaving market observers speculating on the possibility of a recovery.
继 2016 年和 2020 年牛市周期中观察到的趋势之后,近几个月比特币的需求仍然停滞不前。自 7 月以来,对这种领先加密货币的兴趣已趋于稳定,市场观察人士纷纷猜测其复苏的可能性。
However, US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have emerged as a powerful force shaping Bitcoin’s future. While short-term volatility may be limited, analysts point to potential growth in the long term.
然而,美国交易所交易基金(ETF)已成为塑造比特币未来的强大力量。虽然短期波动可能有限,但分析师指出长期潜在增长。
US Spot ETFs Boost Bitcoin Demand
美国现货 ETF 提振比特币需求
Despite the slowdown in Bitcoin demand since July, ETFs based in the United States have been steadily increasing interest in the cryptocurrency.
尽管自 7 月份以来比特币需求放缓,但总部位于美国的 ETF 对加密货币的兴趣一直在稳步增加。
A key development in this regard is BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which has made substantial investments in Bitcoin over recent weeks. In the last seven trading days alone, the IBIT ETF added approximately 10,000 BTC, totaling an investment of $612 million.
这方面的一个关键进展是贝莱德的 IBIT ETF,该基金最近几周对比特币进行了大量投资。仅在过去 7 个交易日,IBIT ETF 就增持了约 10,000 BTC,投资总额达 6.12 亿美元。
This surge in institutional demand through ETFs contrasts with the stagnation observed among individual investors. Experts predict that this institutional backing could pave the way for a recovery in Bitcoin demand during the fourth quarter of 2024, setting the stage for a potential price rebound.
机构对 ETF 的需求激增与个人投资者的停滞形成鲜明对比。专家预测,这种机构支持可能为 2024 年第四季度比特币需求复苏铺平道路,为潜在的价格反弹奠定基础。
Total Bitcoin Portfolio Reaches $56 Billion
比特币投资组合总额达到 560 亿美元
ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT are not just influencing demand—they are accumulating a sizable portion of Bitcoin’s total supply. According to recent data, IBIT holds 367,000 BTC, which represents about 1.7% of the total Bitcoin supply of 21 million coins.
像 BlackRock 的 IBIT 这样的 ETF 不仅影响着需求,它们还积累了比特币总供应量的很大一部分。根据最新数据,IBIT 持有 367,000 BTC,约占比特币总供应量 2100 万枚的 1.7%。
When combined with eleven other US-based funds, these institutions collectively possess 926,638 Bitcoins, valued at $56.7 billion.
加上其他 11 个美国基金,这些机构总共拥有 926,638 个比特币,价值 567 亿美元。
Interestingly, while these funds continue to accumulate Bitcoin, Grayscale’s GBTC has experienced significant outflows, with over $20 billion in outflows since the start of 2024. This shift highlights the growing influence of newer ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT on the Bitcoin market.
有趣的是,在这些基金继续积累比特币的同时,Grayscale 的 GBTC 却经历了大幅资金外流,自 2024 年初以来资金外流超过 200 亿美元。这一转变凸显了贝莱德 IBIT 等新型 ETF 对比特币市场的影响力日益增强。
Willy Woo: Patience Required for New All-Time Highs
Willy Woo:创造历史新高需要耐心
While some traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach new all-time highs soon, well-known market analyst Willy Woo urges caution. According to Woo, Bitcoin’s mid-term market structure has shifted from bearish to neutral, indicating that while a recovery is possible, it will take time.
尽管一些交易员仍然对比特币很快创下历史新高的潜力保持乐观,但著名市场分析师 Willy Woo 敦促谨慎行事。 Woo表示,比特币的中期市场结构已从看跌转向中性,这表明虽然有可能复苏,但需要时间。
Woo suggests that Bitcoin may not see a significant rally in October, a month that has historically been referred to as “Uptober” for its bullish performance. Instead, he predicts that the market will remain relatively sideways, with more positive momentum emerging in November and December.
Woo 表示,比特币在 10 月份可能不会出现大幅反弹,这个月份因其看涨表现而历来被称为“Uptober”。相反,他预计市场将保持相对横盘整理,11 月和 12 月会出现更多积极势头。
“We expect a rise eventually, but reaching all-time highs will take time. A wait of 1-3 weeks is appropriate in the short term. Uptober won’t happen; October will be sideways,” Woo noted in a recent analysis.
“我们预计最终会上涨,但达到历史高点需要时间。短期内等待1-3周比较合适。 Uptober不会发生;十月将会横盘整理,”Woo 在最近的一份分析中指出。
General Outlook: Balancing Short-Term Stagnation with Long-Term Potential
总体展望:平衡短期停滞与长期潜力
Despite the recent stagnation in Bitcoin demand, the market’s future appears balanced and promising, thanks largely to the growing role of ETFs. The investments by institutional players, particularly through BlackRock’s IBIT, provide a solid foundation for long-term growth.
尽管最近比特币需求停滞不前,但市场的未来似乎平衡且充满希望,这主要归功于 ETF 的作用日益增强。机构投资者的投资,特别是通过贝莱德的 IBIT 进行的投资,为长期增长奠定了坚实的基础。
While short-term volatility may remain subdued, analysts are optimistic about the future. The current demand dynamics, driven by ETFs, suggest that Bitcoin could see renewed growth in the coming months, particularly as market participants adjust to macroeconomic factors and the broader economic landscape.
尽管短期波动可能仍然较低,但分析师对未来持乐观态度。当前由 ETF 推动的需求动态表明,比特币可能在未来几个月出现新的增长,特别是在市场参与者适应宏观经济因素和更广泛的经济格局的情况下。
Conclusion: ETFs Offer a Silver Lining Amid Stagnation
结论:ETF 在经济停滞之际带来一线希望
For Bitcoin holders and potential investors, the current market conditions offer a mixed outlook. While demand has stagnated since July, the growing influence of ETFs provides a path forward for future growth. Institutional investment through vehicles like BlackRock’s IBIT ETF is helping to buoy Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even as short-term volatility remains limited.
对于比特币持有者和潜在投资者来说,当前的市场状况前景喜忧参半。尽管需求自 7 月份以来一直停滞不前,但 ETF 日益增长的影响力为未来的增长提供了一条前进的道路。尽管短期波动仍然有限,但通过贝莱德 IBIT ETF 等工具进行的机构投资正在帮助提振比特币的长期前景。
As experts continue to monitor Bitcoin’s price movements and demand trends, the role of ETFs in driving future growth cannot be overlooked. Investors looking for long-term opportunities may find Bitcoin’s current state to be a moment of strategic importance, especially as the market gears up for potential recovery in the final months of 2024.
随着专家们继续监控比特币的价格走势和需求趋势,ETF在推动未来增长方面的作用不容忽视。寻求长期机会的投资者可能会发现比特币目前的状态具有战略重要性,尤其是在市场为 2024 年最后几个月的潜在复苏做好准备的情况下。
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