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儘管自 7 月以來比特幣需求放緩,但美國 ETF 一直在穩步提高人們對加密貨幣的興趣。這項發展的關鍵參與者是 BlackRock 的 IBIT ETF
Bitcoin’s demand has remained stagnant in recent months, following a trend observed during previous bull cycles in 2016 and 2020. Interest in the leading cryptocurrency has plateaued since July, leaving market observers speculating on the possibility of a recovery.
繼2016 年和2020 年牛市週期中觀察到的趨勢之後,近幾個月比特幣的需求仍然停滯不前。猜測其復甦的可能性。
However, US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have emerged as a powerful force shaping Bitcoin’s future. While short-term volatility may be limited, analysts point to potential growth in the long term.
然而,美國交易所交易基金(ETF)已成為塑造比特幣未來的強大力量。雖然短期波動可能有限,但分析師指出長期潛在成長。
US Spot ETFs Boost Bitcoin Demand
美國現貨 ETF 提振比特幣需求
Despite the slowdown in Bitcoin demand since July, ETFs based in the United States have been steadily increasing interest in the cryptocurrency.
儘管自 7 月以來比特幣需求放緩,但總部位於美國的 ETF 對加密貨幣的興趣一直在穩步增加。
A key development in this regard is BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which has made substantial investments in Bitcoin over recent weeks. In the last seven trading days alone, the IBIT ETF added approximately 10,000 BTC, totaling an investment of $612 million.
這方面的一個關鍵進展是貝萊德的 IBIT ETF,該基金最近幾週對比特幣進行了大量投資。光是過去 7 個交易日,IBIT ETF 就增持了約 10,000 BTC,投資總額達 6.12 億美元。
This surge in institutional demand through ETFs contrasts with the stagnation observed among individual investors. Experts predict that this institutional backing could pave the way for a recovery in Bitcoin demand during the fourth quarter of 2024, setting the stage for a potential price rebound.
機構對 ETF 的需求激增與個人投資者的停滯形成鮮明對比。專家預測,這種機構支持可能為 2024 年第四季比特幣需求復甦鋪平道路,為潛在的價格反彈奠定基礎。
Total Bitcoin Portfolio Reaches $56 Billion
比特幣投資組合總額達 560 億美元
ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT are not just influencing demand—they are accumulating a sizable portion of Bitcoin’s total supply. According to recent data, IBIT holds 367,000 BTC, which represents about 1.7% of the total Bitcoin supply of 21 million coins.
像 BlackRock 的 IBIT 這樣的 ETF 不僅影響著需求,它們還累積了比特幣總供應量的很大一部分。根據最新數據,IBIT 持有 367,000 BTC,約佔比特幣總供應量 2,100 萬枚的 1.7%。
When combined with eleven other US-based funds, these institutions collectively possess 926,638 Bitcoins, valued at $56.7 billion.
加上其他 11 個美國基金,這些機構總共擁有 926,638 個比特幣,價值 567 億美元。
Interestingly, while these funds continue to accumulate Bitcoin, Grayscale’s GBTC has experienced significant outflows, with over $20 billion in outflows since the start of 2024. This shift highlights the growing influence of newer ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT on the Bitcoin market.
有趣的是,在這些基金持續累積比特幣的同時,Grayscale 的GBTC 卻經歷了大幅資金外流,自2024 年初以來資金外流超過200 億美元。市場的影響力日益增強。
Willy Woo: Patience Required for New All-Time Highs
Willy Woo:創造歷史新高需要耐心
While some traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach new all-time highs soon, well-known market analyst Willy Woo urges caution. According to Woo, Bitcoin’s mid-term market structure has shifted from bearish to neutral, indicating that while a recovery is possible, it will take time.
儘管一些交易員仍然對比特幣很快就創下歷史新高的潛力保持樂觀,但著名市場分析師 Willy Woo 敦促謹慎行事。 Woo表示,比特幣的中期市場結構已從看跌轉向中性,這表明雖然有可能復甦,但需要時間。
Woo suggests that Bitcoin may not see a significant rally in October, a month that has historically been referred to as “Uptober” for its bullish performance. Instead, he predicts that the market will remain relatively sideways, with more positive momentum emerging in November and December.
Woo 表示,比特幣在 10 月可能不會出現大幅反彈,這個月因其看漲表現而歷來被稱為「Uptober」。相反,他預計市場將保持相對橫盤整理,11 月和 12 月將出現更多積極勢頭。
“We expect a rise eventually, but reaching all-time highs will take time. A wait of 1-3 weeks is appropriate in the short term. Uptober won’t happen; October will be sideways,” Woo noted in a recent analysis.
「我們預計最終會上漲,但達到歷史高點需要時間。短期內等待1-3週比較適合。 Uptober不會發生;十月將會橫盤整理,」Woo 在最近的分析中指出。
General Outlook: Balancing Short-Term Stagnation with Long-Term Potential
整體展望:平衡短期停滯與長期潛力
Despite the recent stagnation in Bitcoin demand, the market’s future appears balanced and promising, thanks largely to the growing role of ETFs. The investments by institutional players, particularly through BlackRock’s IBIT, provide a solid foundation for long-term growth.
儘管最近比特幣需求停滯不前,但市場的未來似乎平衡且充滿希望,這主要歸功於 ETF 的作用日益增強。機構投資者的投資,特別是透過貝萊德的 IBIT 進行的投資,為長期成長奠定了堅實的基礎。
While short-term volatility may remain subdued, analysts are optimistic about the future. The current demand dynamics, driven by ETFs, suggest that Bitcoin could see renewed growth in the coming months, particularly as market participants adjust to macroeconomic factors and the broader economic landscape.
儘管短期波動可能仍然較低,但分析師對未來持樂觀態度。目前由 ETF 推動的需求動態表明,比特幣可能在未來幾個月出現新的成長,特別是在市場參與者適應宏觀經濟因素和更廣泛的經濟格局的情況下。
Conclusion: ETFs Offer a Silver Lining Amid Stagnation
結論:ETF 在經濟停滯中帶來一線希望
For Bitcoin holders and potential investors, the current market conditions offer a mixed outlook. While demand has stagnated since July, the growing influence of ETFs provides a path forward for future growth. Institutional investment through vehicles like BlackRock’s IBIT ETF is helping to buoy Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even as short-term volatility remains limited.
對於比特幣持有者和潛在投資者來說,當前的市場狀況前景好壞參半。儘管需求自 7 月以來一直停滯不前,但 ETF 日益增長的影響力為未來的成長提供了一條前進的道路。儘管短期波動仍然有限,但透過貝萊德 IBIT ETF 等工具進行的機構投資正在幫助提振比特幣的長期前景。
As experts continue to monitor Bitcoin’s price movements and demand trends, the role of ETFs in driving future growth cannot be overlooked. Investors looking for long-term opportunities may find Bitcoin’s current state to be a moment of strategic importance, especially as the market gears up for potential recovery in the final months of 2024.
隨著專家們持續監控比特幣的價格走勢和需求趨勢,ETF在推動未來成長方面的作用不容忽視。尋求長期機會的投資者可能會發現比特幣目前的狀態具有戰略重要性,尤其是在市場為 2024 年最後幾個月的潛在復甦做好準備的情況下。
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