比特币在2024年占主导地位，为加密历史上的新篇章奠定了基础

2024年无疑是比特币开发的关键年。美国比特币现场ETF的正式发布标志着比特币整合的重要里程碑

2024 is undoubtedly a pivotal year in the development of Bitcoin. The official launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF marks an important milestone in the integration of Bitcoin with the traditional financial system since the birth of stablecoins a decade ago. This event not only signifies the rise of Bitcoin as a mature asset but also shifts the discussion of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset from a niche group of enthusiasts to the mainstream, opening a new chapter for it in the financial sector.

2024年无疑是比特币开发的关键年。自十年前，稳定币诞生以来，美国比特币现场ETF的正式发射标志着比特币与传统金融系统整合的重要里程碑。该活动不仅表示比特币是成​​熟的资产的兴起，而且还将比特币作为全球储备资产的讨论从利基市场的爱好者组转移到主流，并在金融领域为其开辟了新的篇章。

In 2024, Bitcoin first broke through the $100,000 mark. This was driven by a buying spree from publicly listed companies like Strategy, which reportedly accumulated 257,250 Bitcoins in 2024. Meanwhile, the newly approved U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF accumulated over 500,000 Bitcoins in 2024. Combined with the 619,000 Bitcoins previously held by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the total amount of Bitcoin held by ETF products has now exceeded 1 million.

2024年，比特币首先打破了100,000美元的大关。这是由诸如战略等公开上市公司购买的狂欢驱动的，据报道，该公司在2024年积累了257,250个比特币。与此同时，新近批准的美国现货比特币ETF在2024年积累了超过500,000个比特币。结合了以前由Grayscale BitcoIn Trust持有的619,000比特币，该比特币的总额超过了比特币的总量，现在超过了EtF。

Additionally, since Donald Trump spoke at the Bitcoin Nashville Conference in July, discussions about a national Bitcoin strategy have rapidly gained traction globally.

此外，自从唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在7月的比特币纳什维尔会议上发表讲话以来，关于国家比特币战略的讨论在全球范围内迅速受到关注。

With policy support, Bitcoin continues to strengthen. Most analysts expect the current bull market to last until 2025, peaking in the third quarter. However, uncertainties remain in the global economy, and if a recession occurs, Bitcoin may already be nearing its cycle peak. Warning signs of such a recession could include a stronger dollar, declining bond yields, and worsening U.S. employment data.

通过政策支持，比特币继续加强。大多数分析师预计，目前的牛市将持续到2025年，第三季度达到顶峰。但是，不确定性仍然存在于全球经济中，如果发生衰退，比特币可能已经接近其周期峰值。这种经济衰退的警告信号可能包括一美元，债券收益率下降以及美国就业数据恶化。

Analysis

分析

For years, Bitcoin has often been viewed as a relatively stagnant and unattractive asset, while emerging altcoins have appeared more vibrant in recent years. However, in 2024, Bitcoin has again come into the limelight in the industry, a shift that is primarily reflected in three widely discussed trends. First, the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem has reached a new peak. New sidechains have gone live, and Bitcoin staking technology has been implemented. Additionally, ZK-proof has been validated on the Bitcoin mainnet for the first time.

多年来，比特币经常被视为相对停滞和没有吸引力的资产，而近年来，新兴的山寨币看起来更加充满活力。但是，在2024年，比特币再次成为该行业的众人瞩目，这一转变主要反映在三种广泛讨论的趋势中。首先，比特币生态系统的发展已经达到了新的峰值。新的Sidechains已经上线了，并且已经实施了比特币堆放技术。此外，ZK-PROFFROOD首次在比特币主网上进行了验证。

Second, with the launch and trading of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and its related options, Bitcoin has attracted the attention of traditional capital markets, with its assets under management (AUM) now exceeding 1.1 million Bitcoins, approximately $10 billion. This fully integrates Bitcoin with the world’s most liquid capital pools.

其次，随着美国比特币现场ETF及其相关选择的推出和交易，比特币吸引了传统资本市场的关注，其资产正在管理（AUM）（AUM）现在超过110万比特币，约为100亿美元。这将比特币与世界上最流行的资本池完全融合在一起。

Finally, as discussions about the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves heat up, the narrative of "Bitcoin supremacy" has entered the realm of mainstream politics. Bitcoin, as the foundational layer of a robust new monetary system, is gradually being taken more seriously.

最后，随着关于美国战略比特币的讨论，“比特币至高无上”的叙述进入了主流政治领域。比特币作为强大的新货币系统的基础层，逐渐被更加重视。

Throughout its development cycle, Bitcoin's dominance has continued its long-term upward trend that began at the end of 2022. Besides the renewed interest from investors in Bitcoin, this trend is also widely attributed to the global tightening cycle that began in January 2022, which pushed U.S. policy rates to 5.5%.

在整个开发周期中，比特币的统治地位一直延续了始于2022年底的长期上升趋势。除了投资者对比特币的新兴趣外，这种趋势还广泛归因于2022年1月开始的全球紧缩周期，这将美国政策率提高到了5.5％。

As of the writing of this article, Bitcoin's upside potential seems to have reached its limit. Currently, stablecoins alone account for 17.5% of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, while Bitcoin's market share is nearing 60%. However, if high inflation leads to sustained high interest rates or if the global economy experiences a hard landing, Bitcoin's dominance will remain elevated, and the long-awaited rotation of altcoins is unlikely to occur. Earlier in mid-December, the market had strong expectations for a comprehensive altcoin season, but as Bitcoin's market share rebounded from 55% to 58%, those expectations have gradually faded.

在本文撰写本文时，比特币的上升潜力似乎已经达到了极限。目前，仅稳定币仅占加密货币总市值的17.5％，而比特币的市场份额接近60％。但是，如果高通货膨胀导致持续的高利率，或者全球经济经历艰难的降落，那么比特币的统治地位将保持较高，并且期待已久的山寨币轮换不太可能发生。 12月中旬，市场对全面的Altcoin季节的期望有很高的期望，但是随着比特币的市场份额从55％反弹到58％，这些期望逐渐消失。

2. Altcoins: Full Explosion Still Requires Time

2。Altcoins：全面爆炸仍需要时间

In 2024, the altcoin market faced numerous challenges. Bitcoin absorbed most of the institutional funds this year, while meme coins attracted the attention of retail investors. Nevertheless, after a seven-month period dominated by Bitcoin, the market briefly entered an altcoin season in early December. However, Bitcoin's market dominance only slightly declined after reaching a high of 61% in mid-November. This indicates that the market has not yet fully shifted to an altcoin-dominated scenario.

2024年，Altcoin市场面临许多挑战。比特币今年吸收了大部分机构基金，而Meme硬币吸引了零售投资者的注意。尽管如此，在比特币主导的七个月时，该市场在12月初短暂进入了Altcoin季节。但是，比特币的市场优势在11月中旬达到61％后仅略有下降。这表明市场尚未完全转移到以Altcoin为主的情况下。

From the data, the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) grew by 76% in 2024, breaking through the historical high of 2021. This growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of large-cap coins, with meme coins showing the highest gains among all altcoin categories. According to DeFiLlama, the weighted average return of 900 meme coins tracked exceeded 1600%, highlighting their outstanding performance in 2024. Although Bitcoin's dominance in the market has loosened, the overall market structure has not fundamentally changed, and a full explosion of altcoins

从数据中，2024年的Altcoins（不包括Stablecoins）的总市值增长了76％，突破了2021年的历史高度。这种增长主要是由大型硬币的强劲表现驱动，Meme硬币在所有AltCoin类别中显示出最高的收益。根据Defillama的说法，所追踪的900个模因硬币的加权平均回报率超过1600％，突出了其在2024年的出色表现。尽管比特币在市场上的优势却松散了，但整体市场结构并没有从根本上改变，并且Altcoins的全部爆炸式爆炸