随着金融市场急切地等待总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的“解放日”的关税，比特币（BTC）价格徘徊在$ 85,000

随着金融市场急切地等待总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的“解放日”关税，比特币的价格徘徊在$ 85,00 $ 85,00，计划于4月3日和4日推出

Bitcoin price hovered near the $85,000 mark on Tuesday, remaining in a familiar range ahead of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which are set to roll out on April 3rd and 4th.

比特币的价格徘徊在周二的85,000美元左右，在唐纳德·特朗普总统的“解放日”关税之前，其范围仍处于熟悉的范围，该关税定于4月3日和第4期推出。

The cryptocurrency showed gains of about 2.6% over the past 24 hours, remaining in a limited trading band that has kept Bitcoin and other risk assets in limbo.

加密货币在过去的24小时内显示出约2.6％的涨幅，保留在有限的交易频段中，该贸易带使比特币和其他风险资产保持困境。

Crypto analyst and founder of The Coin Bureau, Nic Puckrin, pointed out that Bitcoin recently closed its CME gap that opened over the weekend around the $83,000 to $84,000 level.

加密分析师兼硬币局Nic Puckrin的创始人指出，比特币最近结束了其CME差距，该差距在周末开放，大约在83,000美元至84,000美元之间。

Bitcoin is currently trading below its 200-day average. At the same time, 24-hour liquidations remain low at under $250 million, suggesting that downward momentum might continue in the short term.

比特币目前的交易低于其200天的平均水平。同时，24小时的清算率仍然低于2.5亿美元，这表明在短期内可能会继续下降。

“Until there is more clarity around tariffs, this rangebound pattern will continue,” Puckrin explained.

Puckrin解释说：“直到关税有更多的清晰度，这种射程模式将继续下去。”

If tariff news is softer than expected, we could see a breakout from the current trading pattern. In the event of a breakout, Puckrin expects $88,000 to be the next short-term price level to watch. However, he cautions that increased trading volume would be needed to extend any rally.

如果关税新闻比预期的要柔和，我们可以看到当前交易模式的突破。如果发生突破，Puckrin预计88,000美元将成为下一个要观看的短期价格水平。但是，他警告说，要增加交易量以扩大任何集会。

Short Sellers at Risk

有风险的卖空者

A key factor in Bitcoin’s current price action is the massive amount of short positions that could face liquidation.

比特币当前价格行动的关键因素是可能面临清算的大量短职位。

Market data reveals that $9.41 billion worth of short positions could be wiped out if Bitcoin reaches the $90,000 mark.

市场数据显示，如果比特币达到90,000美元的成绩，可以消除价值94.1亿美元的短职位。

A significant buildup of short positions between $80,000 and $90,000 creates the potential for a short squeeze if Bitcoin continues its upward momentum. This could trigger even higher prices as traders who bet against Bitcoin would be forced to cover their losses.

如果比特币继续向上势头，那么在80,000美元至90,000美元之间的短期职位上的大量占据很短。这可能会触发更高的价格，因为押注比特币的交易者将被迫弥补其损失。

Just a week ago, Bitcoin’s surge to $87,000 wiped out $77 million in short positions. The $90,000 level now represents a psychological barrier and potential trigger point for a much larger liquidation event.

就在一周前，比特币的激增至87,000美元的短暂位置消耗了7700万美元。 $ 90,000的水平现在代表了更大的清算事件的心理障碍和潜在的触发点。

If Bitcoin reaches this level, the resulting forced buybacks from short sellers could accelerate Bitcoin’s price momentum even further.

如果比特币达到这一水平，那么卖空者的强迫回购可能会进一步加速比特币的价格动力。

Several other factors have been weighing on investor sentiment since before the tariffs were announced.

自从宣布关税之前，其他几个因素一直对投资者的情绪进行了权衡。

Bitcoin had already shown limited upside before President Trump announced the 10% Chinese import tariffs on January 21. The cryptocurrency had repeatedly failed to break above $100,000 in the months prior.

在特朗普总统在1月21日宣布中国进口关税之前，比特币已经显示出有限的上涨空间。在此前几个月中，加密货币一再未能违反100,000美元。

At the same time, institutional demand for Bitcoin remained strong even as trade tensions escalated. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.75 billion in net inflows during the three weeks following the initial tariff announcement.

同时，即使贸易紧张局势升级，对比特币的机构需求仍然强劲。在最初的关税公告后的三个星期内，现货比特币ETF净流入了27.5亿美元。

Part of traders’ disappointment stems from excessive expectations around Trump’s campaign promise of a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile,” which created unrealistic market expectations.

交易者失望的一部分源于特朗普对“战略性国家比特币库存”的竞选承诺的过度期望，这产生了不切实际的市场期望。

Another factor is the current inflationary trend. With inflation relatively under control in early 2025, lower interest rates may favor real estate and stock markets more directly than Bitcoin.

另一个因素是当前的通货膨胀趋势。随着通货膨胀在2025年初受到控制，较低的利率可能比比特币更直接地有利于房地产和股票市场。

The weakening job market has also dampened demand for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. In February, the US Labor Department reported job openings near a four-year low, suggesting increasing risk aversion among investors.

弱化的就业市场也削弱了对比特币等风险资产的需求。 2月，美国劳工部报告的工作空缺接近四年，这表明投资者的风险规避增加了。

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price direction could go either way. Puckrin notes that the Bitcoin long-short ratio is currently close to 50-50, showing just how uncertain the current market backdrop is.

在短期内，比特币的价格方向可以采用任何一种方式。 Puckrin指出，比特币长期比率目前接近50-50，这表明当前市场的背景多么不确定。

A tariff shock could prompt a Bitcoin breakdown near $79,000 in the short term, or potentially lower to the next support level at $73,000 if extreme fear grips the market.

关税冲击可能会在短期内促使比特币细分接近79,000美元，或者如果极端恐惧抓住市场，则可能会降低到下一个支持水平的73,000美元。

However, on the plus side, the low trading volume over the last few weeks and the crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering around fear could indicate that the market is at or very close to a low.

但是，从好的方面来说，过去几周的交易量很低，加密恐惧和贪婪指数徘徊在恐惧周围可能表明市场处于或非常接近低点。

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, believes that while tariffs would initially have a negative impact on Bitcoin, the long-term picture is more positive.

Coinshares研究负责人詹姆斯·巴特菲尔（James Butterfill）认为，尽管关税最初会对比特币产生负面影响，但长期的情况却更为积极。

“At some point, the market will realize that the U.S. can’t keep raising interest rates while the economy weakens,” Butterfill wrote.

Butterfill写道：“在某个时候，市场将意识到，在经济削弱时，美国将无法继续提高利率。”

“When that happens, bitcoin will likely rebound, while stocks continue to struggle.”

“发生这种情况时，比特币可能会反弹，而股票继续挣扎。”