Dogecoin（Doge）扩展了向下趋势，接近超卖领土

自3月初以来，Dogecoin一直处于下降趋势，其2024年末的大部分收益失败，并突破了关键支持水平。

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has been trending downward since early March, erasing most of its late 2024 gains and breaking below a key support level.

自3月初以来，Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）一直在向下趋势，从而消除了其2024年后期的大部分增长，并在关键支持水平以下突破。

Now, as the meme cryptocurrency trades around $0.1649, showing a 3.6% decrease in the past day, technical analysis offers mixed signals.

现在，由于Meme加密货币的交易约为0.1649美元，显示过去一天下降了3.6％，技术分析提供了混合信号。

Here's a closer look:

这是一个更近的外观：

Relative Strength Index Shows Extreme Oversold Levels

相对强度指数显示极端售出

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart has fallen into extreme oversold territory, with recent readings ranging from 25 to 27. On the 4-hour chart, RSI values are below 10, a less common occurrence that usually precedes a bounce.

1小时图表上的相对强度指数（RSI）已落入极端的超售区域，最近的读数从25到27。在4小时图表上，RSI值低于10，这是较不常见的发生，通常在弹跳之前发生。

The daily RSI is currently around 32-33, approaching but not yet reaching oversold territory, which is typically defined as RSI below 30. Such low levels suggest heavy selling pressure but also indicate that buyers might see an opportunity to enter at these price ranges.

每日RSI目前约为32-33，但尚未达到超售领土，通常定义为RSI以下30以下。如此低的水平表明，销售压力很大，但也表明买家可能会看到有机会以这些价格范围进入。

One analyst on TradingView is assigning a 30-40% probability to DOGE dropping further to the $0.158-$0.159 support area. However, they are assigning a higher probability (60-70%) to a near-term bounce that could target the $0.172-$0.175 range.

一位交易视图的分析师分析了30-40％的概率，以进一步降至0.158- $ 0.159的支持区。但是，他们将较高的概率（60-70％）分配给了可能针对0.172- $ 0.175范围的近期反弹。

Despite Short-Term Bearishness, Long-Term Technical Indicators Show Promise

尽管短期看跌，但长期技术指标表现出希望

Despite the bleak short-term outlook, long-term technical indicators suggest there are still reasons to be optimistic about Dogecoin.

尽管短期前景黯淡，但长期的技术指标表明，仍然有理由对Dogecoin保持乐观。

Dogecoin continues to hold above its long-term ascending channel support, a trendline that has provided reliable support since 2015. This channel support is currently at around $0.15, and a breach of this level could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency.

Dogecoin继续超过其长期上升的渠道支持，这是自2015年以来提供可靠支持的趋势线。目前，此渠道支持为0.15美元，违反此水平可能对加密货币产生重大影响。

The recent pullback also brought Dogecoin to approximately $0.17, a level slightly above the critical 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $0.18395. If historical patterns repeat, this price point could mark a turning point before a move back toward the mid-range of the channel, which is estimated to be around $0.56.

最近的回调还将Dogecoin提高到约0.17美元，这是略高于0.786斐波那契回收的水平，为0.18395美元。如果历史模式重复，这个价格点可能标志着转向频道中间的转折点，估计约为0.56美元。

On-chain data from ChainGlass provides another positive signal. The Accumulation/Distribution Line measured 20.28 billion Dogecoin recently, indicating that long-term holders continue to accumulate coins even as prices consolidate.

Chainglass的链上数据提供了另一个正信号。最近的累积/分配线测量了202.8亿多霉素，表明即使价格合并，长期持有人仍会继续积累硬币。

Wallet data from Santiment shows that large holders aren't rushing to sell. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million Dogecoin, as well as those holding between 100 million and 1 billion Dogecoin, have shown steady accumulation throughout March. This suggests that larger players may be positioning for potential upside.

来自Santiment的钱包数据表明，大型持有人不会急于出售。在整个3月，持有1000万至1亿多霉素的地址以及持有1亿至10亿多狗的人的地址在整个3月份都表现出稳定的积累。这表明较大的玩家可能会定位潜在的上行空间。

Dogecoin is also trading below both the 50 and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart, with the 50 SMA acting as resistance at $0.176. A reclaim of the $0.18 level could signal the start of a reversal, especially if supported by increasing volume.

Dogecoin还在12小时图表上的50和200周期移动平均值以下，50 SMA的阻力为0.176美元。 $ 0.18水平的回收可能标志着逆转的开始，尤其是在数量增加的情况下支持时。

Elon Musk recently addressed speculation about government use of Dogecoin. Despite the playful naming of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), Musk confirmed that the U.S. government has no plans to use the cryptocurrency.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）最近谈到了有关政府使用狗狗币的猜测。尽管政府效率部（DOGE）的命名顽强，但马斯克证实，美国政府没有使用加密货币的计划。

Musk stated he may be ending his role with D.O.G.E. by May, having set a goal to accomplish the agency's mandate within 130 days. He told Fox News, "I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars within that timeframe."

马斯克表示，他可能会在五月结束他的角色，并设定了一个目标，可以在130天内完成该机构的任务。他对福克斯新闻说：“我认为我们将完成大部分所需的工作，以减少该时间范围内的赤字。”

Crypto analysts remain divided on the meme coin's future price action. Some, like Ali, a crypto analyst on X formerly known as Twitter, point to Dogecoin's history of strong rallies following major corrections.

加密分析师在模因硬币的未来价格行动上仍然存在分歧。有些人，例如阿里（Ali），一位X上称为Twitter的加密分析师，指出了Dogecoin在重大更正后的强烈集会历史。

"The lower boundary of the channel usually provides strong support, especially after a 70-80% correction like the one we saw in 2017 during the bull cycle and again in 2024," said Ali in a recent analysis.

阿里在最近的一项分析中说：“该通道的下边界通常会提供强有力的支持，尤其是在经过70-80％的校正之后，就像我们在公牛周期中看到的那样，在2024年再次看到。”

Others note that potential catalysts include the SEC approval of proposed Dogecoin exchange-traded funds. From a technical perspective, the four-hour RSI breaching "oversold" territory combined with a breakout from a months-long falling wedge pattern may signal a recovery in the short term.

其他人则指出，潜在的催化剂包括SEC批准拟议的Dogecoin交换基金。从技术角度来看，四个小时的RSI违反“超卖”领土与长期下降的楔形模式的突破相结合，可能会在短期内恢复。

For near-term price action, market watchers will be focusing on how Dogecoin reacts at the current $0.165 level. If buyers step in, a move toward $0.172 or higher could happen quickly. But if selling pressure continues, DOGE might extend its decline before attempting recovery.

对于近期的价格行动，市场观察家将重点关注Dogecoin在目前的0.165级别的反应。如果买家介入，则可能很快就会迈向0.172美元或更高的转变。但是，如果销售压力仍在继续，Doge可能会在尝试恢复之前将其下降延长。

Dogecoin finds itself at a key inflection point. While price holds above its decade-long ascending channel and large wallets quietly accumulate, confirming a bullish trend will require a sustained breakout above $0.18.

Dogecoin发现自己处于关键拐点。虽然价格超过了十年的上升渠道和大型钱包悄然积累，但证实看涨趋势将需要持续的突破超过0.18美元。