Dogecoin（Doge）擴展了向下趨勢，接近超賣領土

自3月初以來，Dogecoin一直處於下降趨勢，其2024年末的大部分收益失敗，並突破了關鍵支持水平。

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has been trending downward since early March, erasing most of its late 2024 gains and breaking below a key support level.

自3月初以來，Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）一直在向下趨勢，從而消除了其2024年後期的大部分增長，並在關鍵支持水平以下突破。

Now, as the meme cryptocurrency trades around $0.1649, showing a 3.6% decrease in the past day, technical analysis offers mixed signals.

現在，由於Meme加密貨幣的交易約為0.1649美元，顯示過去一天下降了3.6％，技術分析提供了混合信號。

Here's a closer look:

這是一個更近的外觀：

Relative Strength Index Shows Extreme Oversold Levels

相對強度指數顯示極端售出

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart has fallen into extreme oversold territory, with recent readings ranging from 25 to 27. On the 4-hour chart, RSI values are below 10, a less common occurrence that usually precedes a bounce.

1小時圖表上的相對強度指數（RSI）已落入極端的超售區域，最近的讀數從25到27。在4小時圖表上，RSI值低於10，這是較不常見的發生，通常在彈跳之前發生。

The daily RSI is currently around 32-33, approaching but not yet reaching oversold territory, which is typically defined as RSI below 30. Such low levels suggest heavy selling pressure but also indicate that buyers might see an opportunity to enter at these price ranges.

每日RSI目前約為32-33，但尚未達到超售領土，通常定義為RSI以下30以下。如此低的水平表明，銷售壓力很大，但也表明買家可能會看到有機會以這些價格範圍進入。

One analyst on TradingView is assigning a 30-40% probability to DOGE dropping further to the $0.158-$0.159 support area. However, they are assigning a higher probability (60-70%) to a near-term bounce that could target the $0.172-$0.175 range.

一位交易視圖的分析師分析了30-40％的概率，以進一步降至0.158- $ 0.159的支持區。但是，他們將較高的概率（60-70％）分配給了可能針對0.172- $ 0.175範圍的近期反彈。

Despite Short-Term Bearishness, Long-Term Technical Indicators Show Promise

儘管短期看跌，但長期技術指標表現出希望

Despite the bleak short-term outlook, long-term technical indicators suggest there are still reasons to be optimistic about Dogecoin.

儘管短期前景黯淡，但長期的技術指標表明，仍然有理由對Dogecoin保持樂觀。

Dogecoin continues to hold above its long-term ascending channel support, a trendline that has provided reliable support since 2015. This channel support is currently at around $0.15, and a breach of this level could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency.

Dogecoin繼續超過其長期上升的渠道支持，這是自2015年以來提供可靠支持的趨勢線。目前，此渠道支持為0.15美元，違反此水平可能對加密貨幣產生重大影響。

The recent pullback also brought Dogecoin to approximately $0.17, a level slightly above the critical 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $0.18395. If historical patterns repeat, this price point could mark a turning point before a move back toward the mid-range of the channel, which is estimated to be around $0.56.

最近的回調還將Dogecoin提高到約0.17美元，這是略高於0.786斐波那契回收的水平，為0.18395美元。如果歷史模式重複，這個價格點可能標誌著轉向頻道中間的轉折點，估計約為0.56美元。

On-chain data from ChainGlass provides another positive signal. The Accumulation/Distribution Line measured 20.28 billion Dogecoin recently, indicating that long-term holders continue to accumulate coins even as prices consolidate.

Chainglass的鏈上數據提供了另一個正信號。最近的累積/分配線測量了202.8億多黴素，表明即使價格合併，長期持有人仍會繼續積累硬幣。

Wallet data from Santiment shows that large holders aren't rushing to sell. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million Dogecoin, as well as those holding between 100 million and 1 billion Dogecoin, have shown steady accumulation throughout March. This suggests that larger players may be positioning for potential upside.

來自Santiment的錢包數據表明，大型持有人不會急於出售。在整個3月，持有1000萬至1億多黴素的地址以及持有1億至10億多狗的人的地址在整個3月份都表現出穩定的積累。這表明較大的玩家可能會定位潛在的上行空間。

Dogecoin is also trading below both the 50 and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart, with the 50 SMA acting as resistance at $0.176. A reclaim of the $0.18 level could signal the start of a reversal, especially if supported by increasing volume.

Dogecoin還在12小時圖表上的50和200週期移動平均值以下，50 SMA的阻力為0.176美元。 $ 0.18水平的回收可能標誌著逆轉的開始，尤其是在數量增加的情況下支持時。

Elon Musk recently addressed speculation about government use of Dogecoin. Despite the playful naming of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), Musk confirmed that the U.S. government has no plans to use the cryptocurrency.

埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）最近談到了有關政府使用狗狗幣的猜測。儘管政府效率部（DOGE）的命名頑強，但馬斯克證實，美國政府沒有使用加密貨幣的計劃。

Musk stated he may be ending his role with D.O.G.E. by May, having set a goal to accomplish the agency's mandate within 130 days. He told Fox News, "I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars within that timeframe."

馬斯克表示，他可能會在五月結束他的角色，並設定了一個目標，可以在130天內完成該機構的任務。他對福克斯新聞說：“我認為我們將完成大部分所需的工作，以減少該時間範圍內的赤字。”

Crypto analysts remain divided on the meme coin's future price action. Some, like Ali, a crypto analyst on X formerly known as Twitter, point to Dogecoin's history of strong rallies following major corrections.

加密分析師在模因硬幣的未來價格行動上仍然存在分歧。有些人，例如阿里（Ali），一位X上稱為Twitter的加密分析師，指出了Dogecoin在重大更正後的強烈集會歷史。

"The lower boundary of the channel usually provides strong support, especially after a 70-80% correction like the one we saw in 2017 during the bull cycle and again in 2024," said Ali in a recent analysis.

阿里在最近的一項分析中說：“該通道的下邊界通常會提供強有力的支持，尤其是在經過70-80％的校正之後，就像我們在公牛週期中看到的那樣，在2024年再次看到。”

Others note that potential catalysts include the SEC approval of proposed Dogecoin exchange-traded funds. From a technical perspective, the four-hour RSI breaching "oversold" territory combined with a breakout from a months-long falling wedge pattern may signal a recovery in the short term.

其他人則指出，潛在的催化劑包括SEC批准擬議的Dogecoin交換基金。從技術角度來看，四個小時的RSI違反“超賣”領土與長期下降的楔形模式的突破相結合，可能會在短期內恢復。

For near-term price action, market watchers will be focusing on how Dogecoin reacts at the current $0.165 level. If buyers step in, a move toward $0.172 or higher could happen quickly. But if selling pressure continues, DOGE might extend its decline before attempting recovery.

對於近期的價格行動，市場觀察家將重點關注Dogecoin在目前的0.165級別的反應。如果買家介入，則可能很快就會邁向0.172美元或更高的轉變。但是，如果銷售壓力仍在繼續，Doge可能會在嘗試恢復之前將其下降延長。

Dogecoin finds itself at a key inflection point. While price holds above its decade-long ascending channel and large wallets quietly accumulate, confirming a bullish trend will require a sustained breakout above $0.18.

Dogecoin發現自己處於關鍵拐點。雖然價格超過了十年的上升渠道和大型錢包悄然積累，但證實看漲趨勢將需要持續的突破超過0.18美元。