隨著金融市場急切地等待總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的“解放日”的關稅，比特幣（BTC）價格徘徊在$ 85,000

隨著金融市場急切地等待總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的“解放日”關稅，比特幣的價格徘徊在$ 85,00 $ 85,00，計劃於4月3日和4日推出

Bitcoin price hovered near the $85,000 mark on Tuesday, remaining in a familiar range ahead of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which are set to roll out on April 3rd and 4th.

比特幣的價格徘徊在周二的85,000美元左右，在唐納德·特朗普總統的“解放日”關稅之前，其範圍仍處於熟悉的範圍，該關稅定於4月3日和第4期推出。

The cryptocurrency showed gains of about 2.6% over the past 24 hours, remaining in a limited trading band that has kept Bitcoin and other risk assets in limbo.

加密貨幣在過去的24小時內顯示出約2.6％的漲幅，保留在有限的交易頻段中，該貿易帶使比特幣和其他風險資產保持困境。

Crypto analyst and founder of The Coin Bureau, Nic Puckrin, pointed out that Bitcoin recently closed its CME gap that opened over the weekend around the $83,000 to $84,000 level.

加密分析師兼硬幣局Nic Puckrin的創始人指出，比特幣最近結束了其CME差距，該差距在周末開放，大約在83,000美元至84,000美元之間。

Bitcoin is currently trading below its 200-day average. At the same time, 24-hour liquidations remain low at under $250 million, suggesting that downward momentum might continue in the short term.

比特幣目前的交易低於其200天的平均水平。同時，24小時的清算率仍然低於2.5億美元，這表明在短期內可能會繼續下降。

“Until there is more clarity around tariffs, this rangebound pattern will continue,” Puckrin explained.

Puckrin解釋說：“直到關稅有更多的清晰度，這種射程模式將繼續下去。”

If tariff news is softer than expected, we could see a breakout from the current trading pattern. In the event of a breakout, Puckrin expects $88,000 to be the next short-term price level to watch. However, he cautions that increased trading volume would be needed to extend any rally.

如果關稅新聞比預期的要柔和，我們可以看到當前交易模式的突破。如果發生突破，Puckrin預計88,000美元將成為下一個要觀看的短期價格水平。但是，他警告說，要增加交易量以擴大任何集會。

Short Sellers at Risk

有風險的賣空者

A key factor in Bitcoin’s current price action is the massive amount of short positions that could face liquidation.

比特幣當前價格行動的關鍵因素是可能面臨清算的大量短職位。

Market data reveals that $9.41 billion worth of short positions could be wiped out if Bitcoin reaches the $90,000 mark.

市場數據顯示，如果比特幣達到90,000美元的成績，可以消除價值94.1億美元的短職位。

A significant buildup of short positions between $80,000 and $90,000 creates the potential for a short squeeze if Bitcoin continues its upward momentum. This could trigger even higher prices as traders who bet against Bitcoin would be forced to cover their losses.

如果比特幣繼續向上勢頭，那麼在80,000美元至90,000美元之間的短期職位上的大量佔據很短。這可能會觸發更高的價格，因為押注比特幣的交易者將被迫彌補其損失。

Just a week ago, Bitcoin’s surge to $87,000 wiped out $77 million in short positions. The $90,000 level now represents a psychological barrier and potential trigger point for a much larger liquidation event.

就在一周前，比特幣的激增至87,000美元的短暫位置消耗了7700萬美元。 $ 90,000的水平現在代表了更大的清算事件的心理障礙和潛在的觸發點。

If Bitcoin reaches this level, the resulting forced buybacks from short sellers could accelerate Bitcoin’s price momentum even further.

如果比特幣達到這一水平，那麼賣空者的強迫回購可能會進一步加速比特幣的價格動力。

Several other factors have been weighing on investor sentiment since before the tariffs were announced.

自從宣布關稅之前，其他幾個因素一直對投資者的情緒進行了權衡。

Bitcoin had already shown limited upside before President Trump announced the 10% Chinese import tariffs on January 21. The cryptocurrency had repeatedly failed to break above $100,000 in the months prior.

在特朗普總統在1月21日宣布中國進口關稅之前，比特幣已經顯示出有限的上漲空間。在此前幾個月中，加密貨幣一再未能違反100,000美元。

At the same time, institutional demand for Bitcoin remained strong even as trade tensions escalated. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.75 billion in net inflows during the three weeks following the initial tariff announcement.

同時，即使貿易緊張局勢升級，對比特幣的機構需求仍然強勁。在最初的關稅公告後的三個星期內，現貨比特幣ETF淨流入了27.5億美元。

Part of traders’ disappointment stems from excessive expectations around Trump’s campaign promise of a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile,” which created unrealistic market expectations.

交易者失望的一部分源於特朗普對“戰略性國家比特幣庫存”的競選承諾的過度期望，這產生了不切實際的市場期望。

Another factor is the current inflationary trend. With inflation relatively under control in early 2025, lower interest rates may favor real estate and stock markets more directly than Bitcoin.

另一個因素是當前的通貨膨脹趨勢。隨著通貨膨脹在2025年初受到控制，較低的利率可能比比特幣更直接地有利於房地產和股票市場。

The weakening job market has also dampened demand for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. In February, the US Labor Department reported job openings near a four-year low, suggesting increasing risk aversion among investors.

弱化的就業市場也削弱了對比特幣等風險資產的需求。 2月，美國勞工部報告的工作空缺接近四年，這表明投資者的風險規避增加了。

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price direction could go either way. Puckrin notes that the Bitcoin long-short ratio is currently close to 50-50, showing just how uncertain the current market backdrop is.

在短期內，比特幣的價格方向可以採用任何一種方式。 Puckrin指出，比特幣長期比率目前接近50-50，這表明當前市場的背景多麼不確定。

A tariff shock could prompt a Bitcoin breakdown near $79,000 in the short term, or potentially lower to the next support level at $73,000 if extreme fear grips the market.

關稅衝擊可能會在短期內促使比特幣細分接近79,000美元，或者如果極端恐懼抓住市場，則可能會降低到下一個支持水平的73,000美元。

However, on the plus side, the low trading volume over the last few weeks and the crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering around fear could indicate that the market is at or very close to a low.

但是，從好的方面來說，過去幾週的交易量很低，加密恐懼和貪婪指數徘徊在恐懼周圍可能表明市場處於或非常接近低點。

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, believes that while tariffs would initially have a negative impact on Bitcoin, the long-term picture is more positive.

Coinshares研究負責人詹姆斯·巴特菲爾（James Butterfill）認為，儘管關稅最初會對比特幣產生負面影響，但長期的情況卻更為積極。

“At some point, the market will realize that the U.S. can’t keep raising interest rates while the economy weakens,” Butterfill wrote.

Butterfill寫道：“在某個時候，市場將意識到，在經濟削弱時，美國將無法繼續提高利率。”

“When that happens, bitcoin will likely rebound, while stocks continue to struggle.”

“發生這種情況時，比特幣可能會反彈，而股票繼續掙扎。”