專家警告說，比特幣可能低於$ 60,000

比特幣最近的下降可能標誌著長期衰退的時間長，一些專家預測下降緩慢地讓人聯想到2022年熊市。

Bitcoin price has been on a tear lately, and with good reason. The leading cryptocurrency has been battered and bruised throughout 2024, and some experts believe that it could sink even lower in the coming months.

比特幣價格最近流淚，這是有充分理由的。在2024年，領先的加密貨幣受到毆打和瘀傷，一些專家認為，在接下來的幾個月中，它可能會下沉。

Indeed, one hedge fund manager is now putting the chances of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 by the end of the year at “very high.” To be sure, this would put a serious amount of pain on crypto traders, who have already seen some brutal moves in 2024.

實際上，一位對沖基金經理現在將比特幣在年底處於“非常高”的機會下降到60,000美元以下。可以肯定的是，這將使加密貨幣交易員嚴重痛苦，他們在2024年已經看到了一些殘酷的舉動。

Speaking to Blockware Solutions, Lekker Capital founder Quinn Thompson explains that he expects this leg down to be slow and less volatile, which makes it more painful to bear.

Lekker Capital創始人Quinn Thompson在談到Blockware Solutions時解釋說，他希望這條腿會緩慢而揮發性較小，這使得忍受更加痛苦。

“I don’t think it’s going to happen quickly. I think it’s going to be a case of, by year-end, will Bitcoin be trading in the $50,000-$59,999 range, or will it be below $60,000? I would say the chances of it being below $60,000 are very high.”

“我認為這不會很快發生。我認為這將是一個年終，比特幣的交易價格將達到50,000至59,999美元的範圍，還是低於$ 60,000的情況？我會說，它的可能性低於60,000美元。”

This would amount to a nearly 50% drop from Bitcoin’s recent high of $109,000, which it hit in March.

這將比比特幣最近的109,000美元高點下降了近50％。

Those bullish on Bitcoin may also point to the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which was recently announced by President Trump. However, Thompson says that this is still “just talk.”

那些對比特幣上看漲的人也可能指向美國主權財富基金和戰略比特幣儲備金，特朗普總統最近宣布。但是，湯普森說，這仍然是“只是說話”。

“It’s still up in the air. They are still discussing it, and there is no indication yet of when or if it will be funded.”

“它仍然在空中。他們仍在討論它，並且還沒有跡象表明它何時或是否會資助。”

The hedge fund manager also downplayed the role of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases, which he says are “one of the few consistent sources of demand in a weak market.”

對沖基金經理還淡化了MicroStrategy的比特幣購買的作用，他說這是“市場中少數一致的需求來源之一”。

“But even those purchases are relatively small in the grand scheme of things.”

“但是，即使在宏偉的計劃中，這些購買也相對較小。”

So, what is fueling Thompson’s bearish outlook on Bitcoin?

那麼，是什麼促進湯普森對比特幣的看跌前景？

The hedge fund manager says that he sees a number of headwinds on the horizon for crypto, including Trump’s economic policies, which he says will begin to pose problems in the next six to nine months.

對沖基金經理說，他認為包括特朗普的經濟政策在內的加密貨幣在外，他說這將在接下來的六到九個月內開始遇到問題。

“We are going to see a combination of government spending cuts, immigration restrictions, tariff uncertainty, and Federal Reserve policies that will put pressure on both Bitcoin and other risky assets.”

“我們將看到政府支出削減，移民限制，關稅不確定性以及美聯儲政策的結合，這些政策將對比特幣和其他風險資產構成壓力。”

He adds that, while the Trump administration has been focused on fiscal tightening, this could change if economic conditions worsen ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

他補充說，儘管特朗普政府一直專注於財政收緊，但如果經濟狀況在2026年的中期選舉之前惡化，情況可能會發生變化。

“If the economy starts to slow down, then we could see a shift toward more fiscal stimulus, which would be bullish for Bitcoin in the short term, but bearish for the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies.”

“如果經濟開始放慢速度，那麼我們可以看到向更大的財政刺激轉變，這在短期內將是對比特幣的看漲，但對於美元和其他法定貨幣來說，這是看跌。”

Ultimately, Thompson says that he believes Bitcoin is still in a bear market and that it could trade lower in the coming months. He adds that he is not surprised by Bitcoin’s resilience throughout 2024, given the extreme levels of liquidity that are still present in the financial system.

最終，湯普森說，他認為比特幣仍處於熊市，並且在接下來的幾個月中可能會較低。他補充說，考慮到金融體系中仍然存在的極端流動性，他對比特幣在2024年的韌性並不感到驚訝。