专家警告说，比特币可能低于$ 60,000

比特币最近的下降可能标志着长期衰退的时间长，一些专家预测下降缓慢地让人联想到2022年熊市。

Bitcoin price has been on a tear lately, and with good reason. The leading cryptocurrency has been battered and bruised throughout 2024, and some experts believe that it could sink even lower in the coming months.

比特币价格最近流泪，这是有充分理由的。在2024年，领先的加密货币受到殴打和瘀伤，一些专家认为，在接下来的几个月中，它可能会下沉。

Indeed, one hedge fund manager is now putting the chances of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 by the end of the year at “very high.” To be sure, this would put a serious amount of pain on crypto traders, who have already seen some brutal moves in 2024.

实际上，一位对冲基金经理现在将比特币在年底处于“非常高”的机会下降到60,000美元以下。可以肯定的是，这将使加密货币交易员严重痛苦，他们在2024年已经看到了一些残酷的举动。

Speaking to Blockware Solutions, Lekker Capital founder Quinn Thompson explains that he expects this leg down to be slow and less volatile, which makes it more painful to bear.

Lekker Capital创始人Quinn Thompson在谈到Blockware Solutions时解释说，他希望这条腿会缓慢而挥发性较小，这使得忍受更加痛苦。

“I don’t think it’s going to happen quickly. I think it’s going to be a case of, by year-end, will Bitcoin be trading in the $50,000-$59,999 range, or will it be below $60,000? I would say the chances of it being below $60,000 are very high.”

“我认为这不会很快发生。我认为这将是一个年终，比特币的交易价格将达到50,000至59,999美元的范围，还是低于$ 60,000的情况？我会说，它的可能性低于60,000美元。”

This would amount to a nearly 50% drop from Bitcoin’s recent high of $109,000, which it hit in March.

这将比比特币最近的109,000美元高点下降了近50％。

Those bullish on Bitcoin may also point to the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which was recently announced by President Trump. However, Thompson says that this is still “just talk.”

那些对比特币上看涨的人也可能指向美国主权财富基金和战略比特币储备金，特朗普总统最近宣布。但是，汤普森说，这仍然是“只是说话”。

“It’s still up in the air. They are still discussing it, and there is no indication yet of when or if it will be funded.”

“它仍然在空中。他们仍在讨论它，并且还没有迹象表明它何时或是否会资助。”

The hedge fund manager also downplayed the role of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases, which he says are “one of the few consistent sources of demand in a weak market.”

对冲基金经理还淡化了MicroStrategy的比特币购买的作用，他说这是“市场中少数一致的需求来源之一”。

“But even those purchases are relatively small in the grand scheme of things.”

“但是，即使在宏伟的计划中，这些购买也相对较小。”

So, what is fueling Thompson’s bearish outlook on Bitcoin?

那么，是什么促进汤普森对比特币的看跌前景？

The hedge fund manager says that he sees a number of headwinds on the horizon for crypto, including Trump’s economic policies, which he says will begin to pose problems in the next six to nine months.

对冲基金经理说，他认为包括特朗普的经济政策在内的加密货币在外，他说这将在接下来的六到九个月内开始遇到问题。

“We are going to see a combination of government spending cuts, immigration restrictions, tariff uncertainty, and Federal Reserve policies that will put pressure on both Bitcoin and other risky assets.”

“我们将看到政府支出削减，移民限制，关税不确定性以及美联储政策的结合，这些政策将对比特币和其他风险资产构成压力。”

He adds that, while the Trump administration has been focused on fiscal tightening, this could change if economic conditions worsen ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

他补充说，尽管特朗普政府一直专注于财政收紧，但如果经济状况在2026年的中期选举之前恶化，情况可能会发生变化。

“If the economy starts to slow down, then we could see a shift toward more fiscal stimulus, which would be bullish for Bitcoin in the short term, but bearish for the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies.”

“如果经济开始放慢速度，那么我们可以看到向更大的财政刺激转变，这在短期内将是对比特币的看涨，但对于美元和其他法定货币来说，这是看跌。”

Ultimately, Thompson says that he believes Bitcoin is still in a bear market and that it could trade lower in the coming months. He adds that he is not surprised by Bitcoin’s resilience throughout 2024, given the extreme levels of liquidity that are still present in the financial system.

最终，汤普森说，他认为比特币仍处于熊市，并且在接下来的几个月中可能会较低。他补充说，考虑到金融体系中仍然存在的极端流动性，他对比特币在2024年的韧性并不感到惊讶。