比特幣在2024年占主導地位，為加密歷史上的新篇章奠定了基礎

2024年無疑是比特幣開發的關鍵年。美國比特幣現場ETF的正式發布標誌著比特幣整合的重要里程碑

2024 is undoubtedly a pivotal year in the development of Bitcoin. The official launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF marks an important milestone in the integration of Bitcoin with the traditional financial system since the birth of stablecoins a decade ago. This event not only signifies the rise of Bitcoin as a mature asset but also shifts the discussion of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset from a niche group of enthusiasts to the mainstream, opening a new chapter for it in the financial sector.

2024年無疑是比特幣開發的關鍵年。自十年前，穩定幣誕生以來，美國比特幣現場ETF的正式發射標誌著比特幣與傳統金融系統整合的重要里程碑。該活動不僅表示比特幣是成​​熟的資產的興起，而且還將比特幣作為全球儲備資產的討論從利基市場的愛好者組轉移到主流，並在金融領域為其開闢了新的篇章。

In 2024, Bitcoin first broke through the $100,000 mark. This was driven by a buying spree from publicly listed companies like Strategy, which reportedly accumulated 257,250 Bitcoins in 2024. Meanwhile, the newly approved U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF accumulated over 500,000 Bitcoins in 2024. Combined with the 619,000 Bitcoins previously held by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the total amount of Bitcoin held by ETF products has now exceeded 1 million.

2024年，比特幣首先打破了100,000美元的大關。這是由諸如戰略等公開上市公司購買的狂歡驅動的，據報導，該公司在2024年積累了257,250個比特幣。與此同時，新近批准的美國現貨比特幣ETF在2024年積累了超過500,000個比特幣。結合了以前由Grayscale BitcoIn Trust持有的619,000比特幣，該比特幣的總額超過了比特幣的總量，現在超過了EtF。

Additionally, since Donald Trump spoke at the Bitcoin Nashville Conference in July, discussions about a national Bitcoin strategy have rapidly gained traction globally.

此外，自從唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在7月的比特幣納什維爾會議上發表講話以來，關於國家比特幣戰略的討論在全球範圍內迅速受到關注。

With policy support, Bitcoin continues to strengthen. Most analysts expect the current bull market to last until 2025, peaking in the third quarter. However, uncertainties remain in the global economy, and if a recession occurs, Bitcoin may already be nearing its cycle peak. Warning signs of such a recession could include a stronger dollar, declining bond yields, and worsening U.S. employment data.

通過政策支持，比特幣繼續加強。大多數分析師預計，目前的牛市將持續到2025年，第三季度達到頂峰。但是，不確定性仍然存在於全球經濟中，如果發生衰退，比特幣可能已經接近其周期峰值。這種經濟衰退的警告信號可能包括一美元，債券收益率下降以及美國就業數據惡化。

Analysis

分析

For years, Bitcoin has often been viewed as a relatively stagnant and unattractive asset, while emerging altcoins have appeared more vibrant in recent years. However, in 2024, Bitcoin has again come into the limelight in the industry, a shift that is primarily reflected in three widely discussed trends. First, the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem has reached a new peak. New sidechains have gone live, and Bitcoin staking technology has been implemented. Additionally, ZK-proof has been validated on the Bitcoin mainnet for the first time.

多年來，比特幣經常被視為相對停滯和沒有吸引力的資產，而近年來，新興的山寨幣看起來更加充滿活力。但是，在2024年，比特幣再次成為該行業的眾人矚目，這一轉變主要反映在三種廣泛討論的趨勢中。首先，比特幣生態系統的發展已經達到了新的峰值。新的Sidechains已經上線了，並且已經實施了比特幣堆放技術。此外，ZK-PROFFROOD首次在比特幣主網上進行了驗證。

Second, with the launch and trading of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and its related options, Bitcoin has attracted the attention of traditional capital markets, with its assets under management (AUM) now exceeding 1.1 million Bitcoins, approximately $10 billion. This fully integrates Bitcoin with the world’s most liquid capital pools.

其次，隨著美國比特幣現場ETF及其相關選擇的推出和交易，比特幣吸引了傳統資本市場的關注，其資產正在管理（AUM）（AUM）現在超過110萬比特幣，約為100億美元。這將比特幣與世界上最流行的資本池完全融合在一起。

Finally, as discussions about the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves heat up, the narrative of "Bitcoin supremacy" has entered the realm of mainstream politics. Bitcoin, as the foundational layer of a robust new monetary system, is gradually being taken more seriously.

最後，隨著關於美國戰略比特幣的討論，“比特幣至高無上”的敘述進入了主流政治領域。比特幣作為強大的新貨幣系統的基礎層，逐漸被更加重視。

Throughout its development cycle, Bitcoin's dominance has continued its long-term upward trend that began at the end of 2022. Besides the renewed interest from investors in Bitcoin, this trend is also widely attributed to the global tightening cycle that began in January 2022, which pushed U.S. policy rates to 5.5%.

在整個開發週期中，比特幣的統治地位一直延續了始於2022年底的長期上升趨勢。除了投資者對比特幣的新興趣外，這種趨勢還廣泛歸因於2022年1月開始的全球緊縮週期，這將美國政策率提高到了5.5％。

As of the writing of this article, Bitcoin's upside potential seems to have reached its limit. Currently, stablecoins alone account for 17.5% of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, while Bitcoin's market share is nearing 60%. However, if high inflation leads to sustained high interest rates or if the global economy experiences a hard landing, Bitcoin's dominance will remain elevated, and the long-awaited rotation of altcoins is unlikely to occur. Earlier in mid-December, the market had strong expectations for a comprehensive altcoin season, but as Bitcoin's market share rebounded from 55% to 58%, those expectations have gradually faded.

在本文撰寫本文時，比特幣的上升潛力似乎已經達到了極限。目前，僅穩定幣僅佔加密貨幣總市值的17.5％，而比特幣的市場份額接近60％。但是，如果高通貨膨脹導致持續的高利率，或者全球經濟經歷艱難的降落，那麼比特幣的統治地位將保持較高，並且期待已久的山寨幣輪換不太可能發生。 12月中旬，市場對全面的Altcoin季節的期望有很高的期望，但是隨著比特幣的市場份額從55％反彈到58％，這些期望逐漸消失。

2. Altcoins: Full Explosion Still Requires Time

2。Altcoins：全面爆炸仍需要時間

In 2024, the altcoin market faced numerous challenges. Bitcoin absorbed most of the institutional funds this year, while meme coins attracted the attention of retail investors. Nevertheless, after a seven-month period dominated by Bitcoin, the market briefly entered an altcoin season in early December. However, Bitcoin's market dominance only slightly declined after reaching a high of 61% in mid-November. This indicates that the market has not yet fully shifted to an altcoin-dominated scenario.

2024年，Altcoin市場面臨許多挑戰。比特幣今年吸收了大部分機構基金，而Meme硬幣吸引了零售投資者的注意。儘管如此，在比特幣主導的七個月時，該市場在12月初短暫進入了Altcoin季節。但是，比特幣的市場優勢在11月中旬達到61％後僅略有下降。這表明市場尚未完全轉移到以Altcoin為主的情況下。

From the data, the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) grew by 76% in 2024, breaking through the historical high of 2021. This growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of large-cap coins, with meme coins showing the highest gains among all altcoin categories. According to DeFiLlama, the weighted average return of 900 meme coins tracked exceeded 1600%, highlighting their outstanding performance in 2024. Although Bitcoin's dominance in the market has loosened, the overall market structure has not fundamentally changed, and a full explosion of altcoins

從數據中，2024年的Altcoins（不包括Stablecoins）的總市值增長了76％，突破了2021年的歷史高度。這種增長主要是由大型硬幣的強勁表現驅動，Meme硬幣在所有AltCoin類別中顯示出最高的收益。根據Defillama的說法，所追踪的900個模因硬幣的加權平均回報率超過1600％，突出了其在2024年的出色表現。儘管比特幣在市場上的優勢卻鬆散了，但整體市場結構並沒有從根本上改變，並且Altcoins的全部爆炸式爆炸