比特币的主导地位接近周期高点，标志着山寨币季节的潜在转变

比特币的主导地位（BTC.D）一直在稳步攀升，随着其接近上一个周期的高点，交易员和分析师想知道我们是否正处于向山寨币季节转变的边缘。

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) dominance has been a hot topic among traders and analysts, especially as it approaches critical levels. Historically, when Bitcoin’s dominance peaks, it signals a potential turning point in the market. This could open the door for altcoin season, a period when altcoins tend to outpace Bitcoin and take center stage.

比特币（加密货币：BTC）的主导地位一直是交易员和分析师的热门话题，特别是当它接近关键水平时。从历史上看，当比特币的主导地位达到顶峰时，它标志着市场潜在的转折点。这可能为山寨币季节打开大门，在这个时期山寨币往往会超过比特币并占据中心舞台。

Bitcoin Dominance and Market Dynamics

比特币的主导地位和市场动态

Bitcoin dominance is a metric that measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market. A high Bitcoin dominance means Bitcoin is outperforming the rest of the market, drawing in most of the capital. Conversely, a declining dominance signals that other cryptocurrencies, known as altcoins, are gaining traction and outperforming Bitcoin.

比特币主导地位是衡量比特币在整个加密货币市场中所占份额的指标。比特币的高度主导地位意味着比特币的表现优于市场的其他部分，吸引了大部分资金。相反，主导地位的下降表明其他加密货币（称为山寨币）正在获得关注并超越比特币。

Bitcoin’s rally over the past few months has pushed its dominance to new highs. After months of trading in a narrow range, Bitcoin surged through September and October, with its price briefly retesting its all-time high in late October, nearing $73,600. As Bitcoin’s price climbed, so too did its dominance, drawing more capital to the top cryptocurrency and leaving altcoins trailing behind.

过去几个月比特币的上涨将其主导地位推向了新高。经过数月的窄幅波动后，比特币在 9 月和 10 月大幅上涨，其价格在 10 月底短暂重新测试历史高点，接近 73,600 美元。随着比特币价格的攀升，其主导地位也随之上升，吸引了更多资金流向顶级加密货币，而山寨币则落后了。

But this dominance is approaching a key resistance level—one that has historically marked the peak of Bitcoin’s market share before the altcoin market takes off. As Bitcoin’s dominance approaches this critical threshold, many are asking whether the shift toward altcoins could happen soon.

但这种主导地位正在接近一个关键阻力位——历史上该阻力位标志着山寨币市场腾飞之前比特币市场份额的顶峰。随着比特币的主导地位接近这一关键阈值，许多人都在问向山寨币的转变是否会很快发生。

A History of Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycles

比特币主导地位和山寨币周期的历史

If history is any guide, we may be approaching a turning point. During the previous crypto cycles, Bitcoin’s dominance reached around 82% before a significant decline, which was followed by a sharp rally in altcoins. In 2020 and 2023, we saw Bitcoin dominance peak at similar levels before a downward reversal triggered the beginning of altcoin season. In those cycles, Bitcoin’s dominance eventually fell, and funds began rotating into altcoins, propelling the smaller cryptocurrencies to impressive gains.

如果以史为鉴的话，我们可能正在接近一个转折点。在之前的加密货币周期中，比特币的主导地位达到了 82% 左右，然后出现大幅下跌，随后山寨币大幅上涨。在 2020 年和 2023 年，我们看到比特币的主导地位在类似水平达到顶峰，然后向下逆转引发了山寨币季节的开始。在这些周期中，比特币的主导地位最终下降，资金开始转向山寨币，推动较小的加密货币取得令人印象深刻的收益。

Right now, Bitcoin’s dominance sits at about 80.5%, just shy of its previous highs. If it begins to reverse from this level, we could be on the cusp of a major market shift. However, this reversal won’t happen overnight, and some analysts suggest that the true altcoin season may still be months away.

目前，比特币的主导地位约为 80.5%，仅略低于之前的高点。如果它开始从这个水平反转，我们可能正处于市场重大转变的风口浪尖。然而，这种逆转不会在一夜之间发生，一些分析师认为真正的山寨币季节可能还需要几个月的时间。

The Road to Altcoin Season

山寨币季节之路

Benjamin Cowen, a well-known crypto analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has suggested that the market won’t fully enter altcoin season until sometime in 2025. He notes that while Bitcoin dominance remains high, the shift toward altcoins typically doesn’t occur until BTC.D begins to decline significantly. Cowen’s analysis is based on past cycles where Bitcoin and Ethereum’s dominance was high before the market rotated toward altcoins.

著名加密货币分析师兼 Into The Cryptoverse 创始人 Benjamin Cowen 表示，市场要到 2025 年某个时候才会完全进入山寨币季节。他指出，虽然比特币的主导地位仍然很高，但向山寨币的转变通常不会改变。直到 BTC.D 开始大幅下跌。考恩的分析基于过去的周期，在市场转向山寨币之前，比特币和以太坊的主导地位很高。

This shift is important for altcoin investors. When Bitcoin dominance begins to decline, capital usually flows from Bitcoin into altcoins, often leading to substantial gains for smaller cryptocurrencies. However, this doesn’t happen automatically. For the shift to take place, we need to see Bitcoin’s dominance either plateau or begin to drop, accompanied by a rise in altcoin market interest.

这种转变对于山寨币投资者来说很重要。当比特币的主导地位开始下降时，资本通常从比特币流向山寨币，这通常会导致较小的加密货币大幅收益。然而，这不会自动发生。为了发生这种转变，我们需要看到比特币的主导地位要么趋于稳定，要么开始下降，同时山寨币市场兴趣上升。

The Altcoin Season Index: How to Gauge the Shift

山寨币季节指数：如何衡量变化

One tool that helps track whether an altcoin season is approaching is the Altcoin Season Index. This index measures how well altcoins are performing relative to Bitcoin. When the index reads 100, it indicates that altcoins are outpacing Bitcoin in terms of price growth. If the index is below 50, as it currently is, it suggests that altcoins are still struggling to keep up with Bitcoin’s performance.

山寨币季节指数是一种有助于跟踪山寨币季节是否即将到来的工具。该指数衡量山寨币相对于比特币的表现。当该指数为 100 时，表明山寨币的价格增长速度超过了比特币。如果该指数低于 50（就像目前一样），则表明山寨币仍在努力跟上比特币的表现。

At present, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 27. This suggests that Bitcoin remains dominant, and altcoins are underperforming. Historically, altcoin season tends to begin when the index reaches around 50, and the real action starts when it approaches 70-80. So, while we are not yet in altcoin season territory, the market is showing signs of potential change.

目前，山寨币季节指数为 27。这表明比特币仍占主导地位，山寨币表现不佳。从历史上看，山寨币季节往往在指数达到 50 左右时开始，真正的行动在指数接近 70-80 时开始。因此，虽然我们尚未进入山寨币季节，但市场正在显示出潜在变化的迹象。

Bitcoin’s Dominance Chart: A Critical Moment

比特币的主导地位图：关键时刻

Bitcoin dominance is currently testing key levels that could signal a major shift in market dynamics. The BTC.D chart is showing an upward trajectory toward the 72% mark, which was the peak of the last cycle. However, Bitcoin’s dominance doesn’t necessarily need to hit 72% for the altcoin season to begin. If dominance begins to reverse before hitting this point, it could trigger a swift rotation of funds into altcoins, leading to a surge in altcoin prices.

比特币的主导地位目前正在测试可能标志着市场动态发生重大转变的关键水平。 BTC.D 图表显示出朝向 72% 大关的上升轨迹，这是上一个周期的峰值。然而，比特币的主导地位并不一定需要达到 72％ 山寨币季节才会开始。如果在达到这一点之前主导地位开始逆转，可能会引发资金迅速转向山寨币，导致山寨币价格飙升。

In technical terms, a break in Bitcoin’s dominance could be the first sign that the market is shifting. If Bitcoin’s dominance starts to decline and altcoins begin to gain, we could see a dramatic rise in the value of smaller cryptocurrencies. The higher Bitcoin dominance goes before this shift happens, the more significant the subsequent gains for altcoins may be.

从技术角度来看，比特币主导地位的打破可能是市场正在发生变化的第一个迹象。如果比特币的主导地位开始下降，山寨币开始崛起，我们可能会看到较小的加密货币的价值急剧上升。在这种转变发生之前，比特币的主导地位越高，山寨币的后续收益可能就越大。

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