比特幣的主導地位接近週期高點，標誌著山寨幣季節的潛在轉變

比特幣的主導地位（BTC.D）一直在穩步攀升，隨著其接近上一個週期的高點，交易員和分析師想知道我們是否正處於向山寨幣季節轉變的邊緣。

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) dominance has been a hot topic among traders and analysts, especially as it approaches critical levels. Historically, when Bitcoin’s dominance peaks, it signals a potential turning point in the market. This could open the door for altcoin season, a period when altcoins tend to outpace Bitcoin and take center stage.

比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）的主導地位一直是交易員和分析師的熱門話題，特別是當它接近關鍵水平時。從歷史上看，當比特幣的主導地位達到頂峰時，它標誌著市場潛在的轉折點。這可能為山寨幣季節打開大門，在這個時期山寨幣往往會超過比特幣並佔據中心舞台。

Bitcoin Dominance and Market Dynamics

比特幣的主導地位和市場動態

Bitcoin dominance is a metric that measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market. A high Bitcoin dominance means Bitcoin is outperforming the rest of the market, drawing in most of the capital. Conversely, a declining dominance signals that other cryptocurrencies, known as altcoins, are gaining traction and outperforming Bitcoin.

比特幣主導地位是衡量比特幣在整個加密貨幣市場中所佔份額的指標。比特幣的高度主導地位意味著比特幣的表現優於市場的其他部分，吸引了大部分資金。相反，主導地位的下降表明其他加密貨幣（稱為山寨幣）正在獲得關注並超越比特幣。

Bitcoin’s rally over the past few months has pushed its dominance to new highs. After months of trading in a narrow range, Bitcoin surged through September and October, with its price briefly retesting its all-time high in late October, nearing $73,600. As Bitcoin’s price climbed, so too did its dominance, drawing more capital to the top cryptocurrency and leaving altcoins trailing behind.

過去幾個月比特幣的上漲將其主導地位推向了新高。經過數月的窄幅波動後，比特幣在 9 月和 10 月大幅上漲，其價格在 10 月底短暫重新測試歷史高點，接近 73,600 美元。隨著比特幣價格的攀升，其主導地位也隨之上升，吸引了更多資金流向頂級加密貨幣，而山寨幣則落後了。

But this dominance is approaching a key resistance level—one that has historically marked the peak of Bitcoin’s market share before the altcoin market takes off. As Bitcoin’s dominance approaches this critical threshold, many are asking whether the shift toward altcoins could happen soon.

但這種主導地位正在接近一個關鍵阻力位——歷史上該阻力位標誌著山寨幣市場起飛之前比特幣市場份額的頂峰。隨著比特幣的主導地位接近這一關鍵閾值，許多人都在問向山寨幣的轉變是否會很快發生。

A History of Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycles

比特幣主導地位和山寨幣週期的歷史

If history is any guide, we may be approaching a turning point. During the previous crypto cycles, Bitcoin’s dominance reached around 82% before a significant decline, which was followed by a sharp rally in altcoins. In 2020 and 2023, we saw Bitcoin dominance peak at similar levels before a downward reversal triggered the beginning of altcoin season. In those cycles, Bitcoin’s dominance eventually fell, and funds began rotating into altcoins, propelling the smaller cryptocurrencies to impressive gains.

如果以史為鑑的話，我們可能正在接近一個轉折點。在先前的加密貨幣週期中，比特幣的主導地位達到了 82% 左右，然後大幅下跌，隨後山寨幣大幅上漲。在 2020 年和 2023 年，我們看到比特幣的主導地位在類似水平達到頂峰，然後向下逆轉引發了山寨幣季節的開始。在這些週期中，比特幣的主導地位最終下降，資金開始轉向山寨幣，推動較小的加密貨幣取得令人印象深刻的收益。

Right now, Bitcoin’s dominance sits at about 80.5%, just shy of its previous highs. If it begins to reverse from this level, we could be on the cusp of a major market shift. However, this reversal won’t happen overnight, and some analysts suggest that the true altcoin season may still be months away.

目前，比特幣的主導地位約為 80.5%，僅略低於先前的高點。如果它開始從這個水平反轉，我們可能正處於市場重大轉變的風口浪尖。然而，這種逆轉不會在一夜之間發生，一些分析師認為真正的山寨幣季節可能還需要幾個月的時間。

The Road to Altcoin Season

山寨幣季節之路

Benjamin Cowen, a well-known crypto analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has suggested that the market won’t fully enter altcoin season until sometime in 2025. He notes that while Bitcoin dominance remains high, the shift toward altcoins typically doesn’t occur until BTC.D begins to decline significantly. Cowen’s analysis is based on past cycles where Bitcoin and Ethereum’s dominance was high before the market rotated toward altcoins.

著名加密貨幣分析師兼Into The Cryptoverse 創辦人Benjamin Cowen 表示，市場要到2025 年某個時候才會完全進入山寨幣季節。通常不會改變。考恩的分析是基於過去的周期，在市場轉向山寨幣之前，比特幣和以太坊的主導地位很高。

This shift is important for altcoin investors. When Bitcoin dominance begins to decline, capital usually flows from Bitcoin into altcoins, often leading to substantial gains for smaller cryptocurrencies. However, this doesn’t happen automatically. For the shift to take place, we need to see Bitcoin’s dominance either plateau or begin to drop, accompanied by a rise in altcoin market interest.

這種轉變對於山寨幣投資者來說很重要。當比特幣的主導地位開始下降時，資本通常會從比特幣流向山寨幣，這通常會導致較小的加密貨幣大幅收益。然而，這不會自動發生。為了發生這種轉變，我們需要看到比特幣的主導地位要麼趨於穩定，要麼開始下降，同時山寨幣市場興趣上升。

The Altcoin Season Index: How to Gauge the Shift

山寨幣季節指數：如何衡量變化

One tool that helps track whether an altcoin season is approaching is the Altcoin Season Index. This index measures how well altcoins are performing relative to Bitcoin. When the index reads 100, it indicates that altcoins are outpacing Bitcoin in terms of price growth. If the index is below 50, as it currently is, it suggests that altcoins are still struggling to keep up with Bitcoin’s performance.

山寨幣季節指數是一種有助於追蹤山寨幣季節是否即將到來的工具。該指數衡量山寨幣相對於比特幣的表現。當該指數為 100 時，表示山寨幣的價格增長速度超過了比特幣。如果該指數低於 50（就像目前一樣），則表明山寨幣仍在努力跟上比特幣的表現。

At present, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 27. This suggests that Bitcoin remains dominant, and altcoins are underperforming. Historically, altcoin season tends to begin when the index reaches around 50, and the real action starts when it approaches 70-80. So, while we are not yet in altcoin season territory, the market is showing signs of potential change.

目前，山寨幣季節指數為 27。從歷史上看，山寨幣季節往往在指數達到 50 左右時開始，真正的行動在指數接近 70-80 時開始。因此，雖然我們尚未進入山寨幣季節，但市場正在顯示出潛在變化的跡象。

Bitcoin’s Dominance Chart: A Critical Moment

比特幣的主導地位圖：關鍵時刻

Bitcoin dominance is currently testing key levels that could signal a major shift in market dynamics. The BTC.D chart is showing an upward trajectory toward the 72% mark, which was the peak of the last cycle. However, Bitcoin’s dominance doesn’t necessarily need to hit 72% for the altcoin season to begin. If dominance begins to reverse before hitting this point, it could trigger a swift rotation of funds into altcoins, leading to a surge in altcoin prices.

比特幣的主導地位目前正在測試可能標誌著市場動態發生重大轉變的關鍵水平。 BTC.D 圖表顯示朝向 72% 大關的上升軌跡，這是上一個週期的峰值。然而，比特幣的主導地位並不一定需要達到 72％ 山寨幣季節才會開始。如果在達到這一點之前主導地位開始逆轉，可能會引發資金迅速轉向山寨幣，導致山寨幣價格飆升。

In technical terms, a break in Bitcoin’s dominance could be the first sign that the market is shifting. If Bitcoin’s dominance starts to decline and altcoins begin to gain, we could see a dramatic rise in the value of smaller cryptocurrencies. The higher Bitcoin dominance goes before this shift happens, the more significant the subsequent gains for altcoins may be.

從技術角度來看，比特幣主導地位的打破可能是市場正在改變的第一個跡象。如果比特幣的主導地位開始下降，山寨幣開始崛起，我們可能會看到較小的加密貨幣的價值急劇上升。在這種轉變發生之前，比特幣的主導地位越高，山寨幣的後續收益可能就越大。

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