比特币主导地位最终达到 60%，验证了 Cowen 的三年预测

10 月 30 日，比特币主导率终于突破 60%，验证了知名交易员 Benjamin Cowen 的三年预测。

The Bitcoin Dominance Chart increased in a five-wave upward movement from September. The increase led to a high of 60.12% on Oct. 28, the highest price in over 1,300 days.

比特币主导图从 9 月份开始呈五波上升趋势。 10 月 28 日，涨幅达到 60.12%，创 1,300 多天来最高价。

Despite the upward movement, several bearish signs have developed, predicting a BTCD breakdown and decline.

尽管价格上涨，但一些看跌迹象已经出现，预示着 BTCD 将崩溃并下跌。

The wave count is bearish. It suggests that BTCD is in the fifth and final wave of the upward movement (white). The fifth wave developed into an ending diagonal, as evidenced by the ascending wedge pattern. The sub-wave count is in black.

波浪计数看跌。它表明 BTCD 正处于上升趋势的第五波也是最后一波（白色）。第五浪发展成结束对角线，上升楔形形态就证明了这一点。子波计数为黑色。

BTCD also reached a confluence of Fibonacci resistances. It reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, while sub-wave five had the same length as sub-wave one, making it likely the upward movement has ended.

BTCD 也达到了斐波那契阻力位的汇合点。它达到了0.618斐波那契回撤阻力位，而子浪5与子浪1的长度相同，因此上升趋势可能已经结束。

Finally, technical indicators show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have both generated bearish divergences (green), and the RSI has reached overbought territory.

最后，技术指标显示疲软。相对强弱指数（RSI）和移动平均线收敛/发散（MACD）均产生看跌背离（绿色），RSI 已达到超买区域。

Despite these bearish signs, Bitcoin’s dominance is still increasing. So, while a bearish trend reversal could be near, it has not started yet.

尽管存在这些看跌迹象，比特币的主导地位仍在增强。因此，虽然看跌趋势逆转可能即将到来，但尚未开始。

What Analysts are Saying

分析师怎么说

Several cryptocurrency analysts have commented on the Bitcoin Dominance Chart and its implications for the altcoin market.

几位加密货币分析师对比特币主导地位图及其对山寨币市场的影响发表了评论。

Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen has been the biggest proponent of a BTCD increase to 60%. The prediction was finally realized on Oct. 29. He has been predicting this increase for nearly three years while also predicting an ETH/BTC decline.

加密货币交易员本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 一直是 BTCD 上涨至 60% 的最大支持者。这一预测最终在 10 月 29 日实现。近三年来，他一直在预测这一上涨，同时也预测 ETH/BTC 会下跌。

He now believes that Ethereum has bottomed against Bitcoin, and BTCD will begin to fall soon.

他现在认为以太坊相对于比特币已经触底，BTCD 很快就会开始下跌。

Cryptocurrency investor and analyst VirtualBacon believes that Global Net Liquidity is the best predictor of Altcoin season. More specifically, he states that Global Net Liquidity is inversely correlated with the Bitcoin Dominance Rate, and the increase in liquidity triggered altseason in the previous market cycle.

加密货币投资者和分析师 VirtualBacon 认为，全球净流动性是山寨币季节的最佳预测指标。更具体地说，他指出全球净流动性与比特币主导率成反比，流动性的增加引发了上一个市场周期的山寨季。

EtherNasyonal posted a fractal of the Altcoin Market Cap that shows the breakout from the current descending parallel channel will trigger a massive altseason, similar to how it did in 2020.

EtherNasyonal 发布了山寨币市值的分形图，显示当前下行平行通道的突破将引发大规模的山寨币季节，类似于 2020 年的情况。

Let’s analyze the altcoin market cap chart to confirm the breakout.

让我们分析山寨币市值图表以确认突破。

Altcoin Market Cap Breakout

山寨币市值突破

While the Altcoin market cap has made several attempts to break out from its descending parallel channel, the breakout has not yet been confirmed. Rather, ALTCAP made a breakout attempt last week, which was unsuccessful (black icon).

尽管山寨币市值已多次尝试突破下降的平行通道，但突破尚未得到证实。相反，ALTCAP 上周进行了突破尝试，但没有成功（黑色图标）。

Even though ALTCAP did not break out, technical indicators and the wave count are both bullish. The wave count indicates ALTCAP has started its upward movement’s fifth and final wave.

尽管ALTCAP没有突破，但技术指标和波数都看涨。波浪计数表明 ALTCAP 已经开始其向上运动的第五波也是最后一波。

The RSI and MACD also give positive readings. The RSI increased above 50, while the MACD made a bullish cross (black circles). Both are signs of a bullish trend.

RSI 和 MACD 也给出积极的读数。 RSI 升至 50 以上，而 MACD 形成看涨交叉（黑色圆圈）。两者都是看涨趋势的迹象。

If ALTCAP breaks out, the next target will be $1.61 trillion, nearly 70% above the current price.

如果 ALTCAP 爆发，下一个目标将是 1.61 万亿美元，比当前价格高出近 70%。

However, this chart does not affect the BTCD decline since even if the ALTCAP breaks out, the Bitcoin price could increase even faster, maintaining the BTCD increase.

然而，该图表并不会影响 BTCD 的下跌，因为即使 ALTCAP 突破，比特币价格也可能上涨得更快，从而维持 BTCD 的上涨。