比特幣主導地位最終達到 60%，驗證了 Cowen 的三年預測

10 月 30 日，比特幣主導率終於突破 60%，驗證了知名交易員 Benjamin Cowen 的三年預測。

The Bitcoin Dominance Chart increased in a five-wave upward movement from September. The increase led to a high of 60.12% on Oct. 28, the highest price in over 1,300 days.

比特幣主導圖從 9 月開始呈現五波上升趨勢。 10 月 28 日，漲幅達 60.12%，創 1,300 多天來最高價。

Despite the upward movement, several bearish signs have developed, predicting a BTCD breakdown and decline.

儘管價格上漲，但一些看跌跡像已經出現，預示著 BTCD 將崩潰並下跌。

The wave count is bearish. It suggests that BTCD is in the fifth and final wave of the upward movement (white). The fifth wave developed into an ending diagonal, as evidenced by the ascending wedge pattern. The sub-wave count is in black.

波浪計數看跌。它表明 BTCD 正處於上升趨勢的第五波也是最後一波（白色）。第五浪發展成結束對角線，上升楔形形態就證明了這一點。子波計數為黑色。

BTCD also reached a confluence of Fibonacci resistances. It reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, while sub-wave five had the same length as sub-wave one, making it likely the upward movement has ended.

BTCD 也達到了斐波那契阻力位的匯合點。它達到了0.618斐波那契回撤阻力位，而子浪5與子浪1的長度相同，因此上升趨勢可能已經結束。

Finally, technical indicators show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have both generated bearish divergences (green), and the RSI has reached overbought territory.

最後，技術指標顯示疲軟。相對強弱指數（RSI）和移動平均線收斂/發散（MACD）均產生看跌背離（綠色），RSI 已達到超買區域。

Despite these bearish signs, Bitcoin’s dominance is still increasing. So, while a bearish trend reversal could be near, it has not started yet.

儘管有這些看跌跡象，比特幣的主導地位仍在增強。因此，雖然看跌趨勢逆轉可能即將到來，但尚未開始。

What Analysts are Saying

分析師怎麼說

Several cryptocurrency analysts have commented on the Bitcoin Dominance Chart and its implications for the altcoin market.

幾位加密貨幣分析師對比特幣主導地位圖及其對山寨幣市場的影響發表了評論。

Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen has been the biggest proponent of a BTCD increase to 60%. The prediction was finally realized on Oct. 29. He has been predicting this increase for nearly three years while also predicting an ETH/BTC decline.

加密貨幣交易員本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 一直是 BTCD 上漲至 60% 的最大支持者。這項預測最終在 10 月 29 日實現。

He now believes that Ethereum has bottomed against Bitcoin, and BTCD will begin to fall soon.

他現在認為以太坊相對於比特幣已經觸底，BTCD 很快就會開始下跌。

Cryptocurrency investor and analyst VirtualBacon believes that Global Net Liquidity is the best predictor of Altcoin season. More specifically, he states that Global Net Liquidity is inversely correlated with the Bitcoin Dominance Rate, and the increase in liquidity triggered altseason in the previous market cycle.

加密貨幣投資者和分析師 VirtualBacon 認為，全球淨流動性是山寨幣季節的最佳預測指標。更具體地說，他指出全球淨流動性與比特幣主導率成反比，流動性的增加引發了上一個市場週期的山寨季。

EtherNasyonal posted a fractal of the Altcoin Market Cap that shows the breakout from the current descending parallel channel will trigger a massive altseason, similar to how it did in 2020.

EtherNasyonal 發布了山寨幣市值的分形圖，顯示當前下行平行通道的突破將引發大規模的山寨幣季節，類似於 2020 年的情況。

Let’s analyze the altcoin market cap chart to confirm the breakout.

讓我們分析山寨幣市值圖表以確認突破。

Altcoin Market Cap Breakout

山寨幣市值突破

While the Altcoin market cap has made several attempts to break out from its descending parallel channel, the breakout has not yet been confirmed. Rather, ALTCAP made a breakout attempt last week, which was unsuccessful (black icon).

儘管山寨幣市值已多次嘗試突破下降的平行通道，但突破尚未得到證實。相反，ALTCAP 上週進行了突破嘗試，但沒有成功（黑色圖標）。

Even though ALTCAP did not break out, technical indicators and the wave count are both bullish. The wave count indicates ALTCAP has started its upward movement’s fifth and final wave.

儘管ALTCAP沒有突破，但技術指標和波數都看漲。波浪計數表明 ALTCAP 已經開始其向上移動的第五波也是最後一波。

The RSI and MACD also give positive readings. The RSI increased above 50, while the MACD made a bullish cross (black circles). Both are signs of a bullish trend.

RSI 和 MACD 也給予正面的讀數。 RSI 升至 50 以上，而 MACD 形成看漲交叉（黑色圓圈）。兩者都是看漲趨勢的跡象。

If ALTCAP breaks out, the next target will be $1.61 trillion, nearly 70% above the current price.

如果 ALTCAP 爆發，下一個目標將是 1.61 兆美元，比目前價格高出近 70%。

However, this chart does not affect the BTCD decline since even if the ALTCAP breaks out, the Bitcoin price could increase even faster, maintaining the BTCD increase.

然而，該圖表並不會影響 BTCD 的下跌，因為即使 ALTCAP 突破，比特幣價格也可能上漲得更快，從而維持 BTCD 的上漲。