Bitcoin Dominance Finally Reaches 60%, Validating Cowen's Three-Year Prediction

The Bitcoin Dominance rate finally moved above 60% on Oct. 30, validating the three-year prediction by well-known trader Benjamin Cowen.

The Bitcoin Dominance Chart increased in a five-wave upward movement from September. The increase led to a high of 60.12% on Oct. 28, the highest price in over 1,300 days.

Despite the upward movement, several bearish signs have developed, predicting a BTCD breakdown and decline.

The wave count is bearish. It suggests that BTCD is in the fifth and final wave of the upward movement (white). The fifth wave developed into an ending diagonal, as evidenced by the ascending wedge pattern. The sub-wave count is in black.

BTCD also reached a confluence of Fibonacci resistances. It reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, while sub-wave five had the same length as sub-wave one, making it likely the upward movement has ended.

Finally, technical indicators show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have both generated bearish divergences (green), and the RSI has reached overbought territory.

Despite these bearish signs, Bitcoin’s dominance is still increasing. So, while a bearish trend reversal could be near, it has not started yet.

What Analysts are Saying

Several cryptocurrency analysts have commented on the Bitcoin Dominance Chart and its implications for the altcoin market.

Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen has been the biggest proponent of a BTCD increase to 60%. The prediction was finally realized on Oct. 29. He has been predicting this increase for nearly three years while also predicting an ETH/BTC decline.

He now believes that Ethereum has bottomed against Bitcoin, and BTCD will begin to fall soon.

Cryptocurrency investor and analyst VirtualBacon believes that Global Net Liquidity is the best predictor of Altcoin season. More specifically, he states that Global Net Liquidity is inversely correlated with the Bitcoin Dominance Rate, and the increase in liquidity triggered altseason in the previous market cycle.

EtherNasyonal posted a fractal of the Altcoin Market Cap that shows the breakout from the current descending parallel channel will trigger a massive altseason, similar to how it did in 2020.

Let’s analyze the altcoin market cap chart to confirm the breakout.

Altcoin Market Cap Breakout

While the Altcoin market cap has made several attempts to break out from its descending parallel channel, the breakout has not yet been confirmed. Rather, ALTCAP made a breakout attempt last week, which was unsuccessful (black icon).

Even though ALTCAP did not break out, technical indicators and the wave count are both bullish. The wave count indicates ALTCAP has started its upward movement’s fifth and final wave.

The RSI and MACD also give positive readings. The RSI increased above 50, while the MACD made a bullish cross (black circles). Both are signs of a bullish trend.

If ALTCAP breaks out, the next target will be $1.61 trillion, nearly 70% above the current price.

However, this chart does not affect the BTCD decline since even if the ALTCAP breaks out, the Bitcoin price could increase even faster, maintaining the BTCD increase.