比特币现金减半完成；市场影响不确定

比特币现金 (BCH) 于 2024 年 4 月 4 日经历了第二次减半，矿工奖励从每个区块 6.25 BCH 减少至 3.125 BCH。 BCH 在减半前最初下跌了 9%，但减半后立即反弹超过 5%。虽然比特币减半预计将于 4 月 20 日进行，但由于减半的影响随着时间的推移而减弱、现货比特币 ETF 的推出以及交易量较大，预计其影响会较温和。

Bitcoin Cash Completes Second Halving, Impact on Crypto Market Uncertain

比特币现金完成第二次减半，对加密市场影响不确定

April 5, 2024 - Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has successfully undergone its second halving event, reducing the block reward for miners from 6.25 BCH to 3.125 BCH. The halving occurred on April 4, 2024, at block height 840,000.

2024 年 4 月 5 日 - 比特币现金 (BCH) 成功进行第二次减半，矿工的区块奖励从 6.25 BCH 减少至 3.125 BCH。减半发生于 2024 年 4 月 4 日，区块高度为 840,000。

In the lead-up to the halving, BCH experienced a bullish trend, with its price rising by over 15% in the past week and 33% in the past month. However, the price dipped by approximately 9% in the hours preceding the halving.

在减半之前，BCH经历了看涨趋势，过去一周其价格上涨了15％以上，过去一个月上涨了33％。然而，价格在减半前的几个小时内下跌了约 9%。

Immediately following the halving, BCH's price rebounded by more than 5%. However, it has since retraced, trading at $613.88 as of press time, marking a 2.53% decline in the past 24 hours.

减半后，BCH 价格立即反弹超过 5%。但此后有所回调，截至发稿时交易价格为 613.88 美元，过去 24 小时内下跌 2.53%。

Analysts believe that the halving could have a significant impact on the crypto market, although the extent of its influence remains uncertain. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with price surges. After the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed by over 5,500% within four years. Following the second halving in 2016, the price increase was less pronounced, with a gain of approximately 1,250%.

分析师认为，减半可能会对加密货币市场产生重大影响，但影响程度仍不确定。从历史上看，比特币减半与价格飙升有关。 2012 年第一次减半后，比特币价格在四年内飙升了 5,500% 以上。 2016 年第二次减半后，价格涨幅不再那么明显，涨幅约为 1,250%。

However, some analysts believe that the impact of halvings has gradually diminished over time. In the current cycle, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has only increased by approximately 700% since the previous halving. This suggests that the potential for a major surge in BTC's price after the upcoming halving may be limited.

不过，一些分析人士认为，随着时间的推移，减半的影响已经逐渐减弱。在当前周期中，比特币（BTC）的价格自上次减半以来仅上涨了约700%。这表明，即将到来的减半后，比特币价格大幅上涨的潜力可能有限。

Furthermore, the recent launch of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and its substantial trading volume could potentially mitigate the effects of the halving. Spot ETFs provide investors with exposure to the underlying asset without the need to purchase or hold the physical asset. This could increase demand for Bitcoin, offsetting the supply reduction caused by the halving.

此外，最近推出的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）及其庞大的交易量可能会减轻减半的影响。现货ETF为投资者提供了标的资产的敞口，而无需购买或持有实物资产。这可能会增加对比特币的需求，抵消减半造成的供应减少。

"The approval of spot ETFs is going to be a major catalyst that's going to drive the demand shock, and then that will be followed in April with a supply shock," said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy.

MicroStrategy 首席执行官 Michael Saylor 表示：“现货 ETF 的批准将成为推动需求冲击的主要催化剂，随后将在 4 月份引发供应冲击。”

Overall, the impact of the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving on the crypto market remains uncertain. While historical trends suggest that halvings can trigger price surges, the diminished impact of recent halvings and the introduction of spot ETFs may modify their effects.

总体而言，比特币现金减半和即将到来的比特币减半对加密市场的影响仍不确定。虽然历史趋势表明减半可能引发价格飙升，但近期减半影响的减弱和现货 ETF 的推出可能会改变其影响。