比特幣現金減半完成；市場影響不確定

比特幣現金 (BCH) 於 2024 年 4 月 4 日經歷了第二次減半，礦工獎勵從每個區塊 6.25 BCH 減少至 3.125 BCH。 BCH 在減半前最初下跌了 9%，但減半後立即反彈超過 5%。雖然比特幣減半預計將於 4 月 20 日進行，但由於減半的影響隨著時間的推移而減弱、現貨比特幣 ETF 的推出以及交易量較大，預計其影響會較溫和。

Bitcoin Cash Completes Second Halving, Impact on Crypto Market Uncertain

比特幣現金完成第二次減半，對加密市場影響不確定

April 5, 2024 - Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has successfully undergone its second halving event, reducing the block reward for miners from 6.25 BCH to 3.125 BCH. The halving occurred on April 4, 2024, at block height 840,000.

2024 年 4 月 5 日 - 比特幣現金 (BCH) 成功進行第二次減半，礦工的區塊獎勵從 6.25 BCH 減少至 3.125 BCH。減半發生於 2024 年 4 月 4 日，區塊高度為 840,000。

In the lead-up to the halving, BCH experienced a bullish trend, with its price rising by over 15% in the past week and 33% in the past month. However, the price dipped by approximately 9% in the hours preceding the halving.

在減半之前，BCH經歷了看漲趨勢，過去一周其價格上漲了15％以上，過去一個月上漲了33％。然而，價格在減半前的幾個小時內下跌了約 9%。

Immediately following the halving, BCH's price rebounded by more than 5%. However, it has since retraced, trading at $613.88 as of press time, marking a 2.53% decline in the past 24 hours.

減半後，BCH 價格立即反彈超過 5%。但此後有所回調，截至發稿時交易價格為 613.88 美元，過去 24 小時內下跌 2.53%。

Analysts believe that the halving could have a significant impact on the crypto market, although the extent of its influence remains uncertain. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with price surges. After the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed by over 5,500% within four years. Following the second halving in 2016, the price increase was less pronounced, with a gain of approximately 1,250%.

分析師認為，減半可能會對加密貨幣市場產生重大影響，但影響程度仍不確定。從歷史上看，比特幣減半與價格飆升有關。 2012 年第一次減半後，比特幣價格在四年內飆升了 5,500% 以上。 2016 年第二次減半後，價格漲幅不再那麼明顯，漲幅約 1,250%。

However, some analysts believe that the impact of halvings has gradually diminished over time. In the current cycle, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has only increased by approximately 700% since the previous halving. This suggests that the potential for a major surge in BTC's price after the upcoming halving may be limited.

不過，一些分析家認為，隨著時間的推移，減半的影響已經逐漸減弱。在當前週期中，比特幣（BTC）的價格自上次減半以來僅上漲了約700%。這表明，即將到來的減半後，比特幣價格大幅上漲的潛力可能有限。

Furthermore, the recent launch of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and its substantial trading volume could potentially mitigate the effects of the halving. Spot ETFs provide investors with exposure to the underlying asset without the need to purchase or hold the physical asset. This could increase demand for Bitcoin, offsetting the supply reduction caused by the halving.

此外，最近推出的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）及其龐大的交易量可能會減輕減半的影響。現貨ETF為投資者提供了標的資產的敞口，而無需購買或持有實體資產。這可能會增加對比特幣的需求，抵消減半造成的供應減少。

"The approval of spot ETFs is going to be a major catalyst that's going to drive the demand shock, and then that will be followed in April with a supply shock," said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy.

MicroStrategy 執行長 Michael Saylor 表示：“現貨 ETF 的批准將成為推動需求衝擊的主要催化劑，隨後將在 4 月引發供應衝擊。”

Overall, the impact of the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving on the crypto market remains uncertain. While historical trends suggest that halvings can trigger price surges, the diminished impact of recent halvings and the introduction of spot ETFs may modify their effects.

總體而言，比特幣現金減半和即將到來的比特幣減半對加密市場的影響仍不確定。雖然歷史趨勢顯示減半可能引發價格飆升，但近期減半影響的減弱和現貨 ETF 的推出可能會改變其影響。