比特币牛市即将结束吗？

比特币市场最近表现出波动，链上数据表明长期和短期交易者之间的动态变化。长期持有者已经减持，但与之前的牛市高峰不同，这些代币并没有流向交易所出售。这种异常现象归因于贝莱德大量的场外比特币购买。然而，贝莱德净流入的下降可能会引发长期持有者抛售，从而可能导致价格暴跌。短期交易者也实现了利润，但由于机构采用率不断提高，分析师仍对比特币的长期前景持乐观态度。

Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Coming to an End?

比特币牛市即将结束吗？

The Bitcoin market has been a rollercoaster lately, with on-chain data showing a shift in dynamics between long-term holders and short-term traders. While some metrics are raising concerns about a potential market top, analysts believe Bitcoin may simply be consolidating before continuing its upward trajectory.

比特币市场最近就像过山车一样，链上数据显示长期持有者和短期交易者之间的动态发生了转变。尽管一些指标引发了人们对潜在市场顶部的担忧，但分析师认为，比特币可能只是在盘整，然后才继续其上行轨迹。

Long-Term Holders Selling Off?

长期持有者抛售？

Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant drop in Bitcoin holdings among long-term investors, or "whales," since the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year. Historically, such declines have signaled the top of bull runs as whales cash out their profits.

CryptoQuant 的数据显示，自今年早些时候推出第一个现货比特币 ETF 以来，长期投资者（即“鲸鱼”）的比特币持有量大幅下降。从历史上看，这种下跌标志着牛市的顶峰，因为鲸鱼兑现了利润。

However, there's a key difference this time: the coins don't appear to be flowing onto exchanges for sale. CryptoQuant points to the massive over-the-counter buying from BlackRock, which has emerged as a major buyer following the ETF approval.

然而，这次有一个关键的区别：这些代币似乎并没有流向交易所进行销售。 CryptoQuant 指出，贝莱德在场外进行了大量购买，在 ETF 获得批准后，贝莱德已成为主要买家。

BlackRock's Impact

贝莱德的影响

BlackRock's over-the-counter (OTC) purchases have prevented the usual influx of coins onto exchanges. As a result, despite the sharp decline in long-term holder holdings, there hasn't been a significant increase in selling pressure.

贝莱德的场外交易（OTC）购买阻止了代币通常涌入交易所。因此，尽管长期持有者持有量大幅下降，但抛售压力并未显着增加。

However, concerns arise from data showing BlackRock's net inflows of Bitcoin have dropped to record lows in recent weeks. If this trend continues, long-term holders may eventually have to deposit coins onto exchanges to take profits, increasing selling pressure and potentially triggering a price dump.

然而，数据显示贝莱德的比特币净流入量近几周已降至历史低点，引发了担忧。如果这种趋势持续下去，长期持有者最终可能不得不将代币存入交易所以获取利润，从而增加抛售压力，并可能引发价格暴跌。

Short-Term Traders Taking Profits

短期交易者获利了结

Last week, CryptoQuant's data indicated significant profit-taking from short-term Bitcoin holders on March 13th. This is typically seen at bull market tops.

上周，CryptoQuant 的数据显示，短期比特币持有者在 3 月 13 日出现了大幅获利了结。这通常出现在牛市顶部。

However, CryptoQuant notes that the new Bitcoin ETF and expected inflows make it difficult to interpret this as a definitive sign of a peak. The firm believes that further bull market growth is possible in 2024 after a period of consolidation.

然而，CryptoQuant 指出，新的比特币 ETF 和预期的资金流入使得很难将其解释为见顶的明确迹象。该公司认为，经过一段时间的盘整后，牛市可能在 2024 年进一步增长。

Caution Ahead

前方谨慎

While long-term holder movements are raising concerns, many analysts still see the current Bitcoin uptrend continuing, driven by institutional adoption. However, close monitoring of exchange flows and whale activity will be crucial in the weeks ahead to determine whether the bull run is about to end.

尽管长期持有者的变动引起了担忧，但许多分析师仍然认为，在机构采用的推动下，当前的比特币上涨趋势仍在继续。然而，在未来几周内，密切监测外汇流动和鲸鱼活动对于确定牛市是否即将结束至关重要。