比特幣牛市即將結束嗎？

比特幣市場最近表現出波動，鏈上數據顯示長期和短期交易者之間的動態變化。長期持有者已經減持，但與之前的牛市高峰不同，這些代幣並沒有流向交易所出售。這種異常現象歸因於貝萊德大量的場外比特幣購買。然而，貝萊德淨流入的下降可能會引發長期持有者拋售，從而可能導致價格暴跌。短期交易者也實現了利潤，但由於機構採用率不斷提高，分析師仍對比特幣的長期前景感到樂觀。

Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Coming to an End?

比特幣牛市即將結束嗎？

The Bitcoin market has been a rollercoaster lately, with on-chain data showing a shift in dynamics between long-term holders and short-term traders. While some metrics are raising concerns about a potential market top, analysts believe Bitcoin may simply be consolidating before continuing its upward trajectory.

比特幣市場最近就像過山車一樣，鏈上數據顯示長期持有者和短期交易者之間的動態發生了轉變。儘管一些指標引發了人們對潛在市場頂部的擔憂，但分析師認為，比特幣可能只是在盤整，然後繼續其上行軌跡。

Long-Term Holders Selling Off?

長期持有者拋售？

Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant drop in Bitcoin holdings among long-term investors, or "whales," since the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year. Historically, such declines have signaled the top of bull runs as whales cash out their profits.

CryptoQuant 的數據顯示，自今年稍早推出第一個現貨比特幣 ETF 以來，長期投資者（即「鯨魚」）的比特幣持有量大幅下降。從歷史上看，這種下跌標誌著牛市的頂峰，因為鯨魚兌現了利潤。

However, there's a key difference this time: the coins don't appear to be flowing onto exchanges for sale. CryptoQuant points to the massive over-the-counter buying from BlackRock, which has emerged as a major buyer following the ETF approval.

然而，這次有一個關鍵的差異：這些代幣似乎並沒有流向交易所進行銷售。 CryptoQuant 指出，貝萊德在場外進行了大量購買，在 ETF 獲得批准後，貝萊德已成為主要買家。

BlackRock's Impact

貝萊德的影響

BlackRock's over-the-counter (OTC) purchases have prevented the usual influx of coins onto exchanges. As a result, despite the sharp decline in long-term holder holdings, there hasn't been a significant increase in selling pressure.

貝萊德的場外交易（OTC）購買阻止了代幣通常湧入交易所。因此，儘管長期持有者持有量大幅下降，但拋售壓力並未顯著增加。

However, concerns arise from data showing BlackRock's net inflows of Bitcoin have dropped to record lows in recent weeks. If this trend continues, long-term holders may eventually have to deposit coins onto exchanges to take profits, increasing selling pressure and potentially triggering a price dump.

然而，數據顯示貝萊德的比特幣淨流入量近幾週已降至歷史低點，引發了擔憂。如果這種趨勢持續下去，長期持有者最終可能不得不將代幣存入交易以獲取利潤，從而增加拋售壓力，並可能引發價格暴跌。

Short-Term Traders Taking Profits

短期交易者獲利了結

Last week, CryptoQuant's data indicated significant profit-taking from short-term Bitcoin holders on March 13th. This is typically seen at bull market tops.

上週，CryptoQuant 的數據顯示，短期比特幣持有者在 3 月 13 日出現了大幅獲利了結。這通常出現在牛市頂部。

However, CryptoQuant notes that the new Bitcoin ETF and expected inflows make it difficult to interpret this as a definitive sign of a peak. The firm believes that further bull market growth is possible in 2024 after a period of consolidation.

然而，CryptoQuant 指出，新的比特幣 ETF 和預期的資金流入使得很難將其解釋為見頂的明確跡象。該公司認為，經過一段時間的盤整後，多頭市場可能在 2024 年進一步成長。

Caution Ahead

前方謹慎

While long-term holder movements are raising concerns, many analysts still see the current Bitcoin uptrend continuing, driven by institutional adoption. However, close monitoring of exchange flows and whale activity will be crucial in the weeks ahead to determine whether the bull run is about to end.

儘管長期持有者的變動引起了擔憂，但許多分析師仍然認為，在機構採用的推動下，當前的比特幣上漲趨勢仍在繼續。然而，在未來幾週內，密切監測外匯流動和鯨魚活動對於確定牛市是否即將結束至關重要。