根据加密量，比特币的BTC/USD牛周期似乎已经结束

这些评论遵循CryptoQuant专有PNL指数图表的新信号，该信号现在反映了与先前市场顶级保持一致的卖出信号。

Bitcoin's BTC/USD bull cycle appears to have come to an end, according to Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

区块链分析公司CryptoQuant的创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示，比特币的BTC/USD公牛周期似乎已经结束。

The comments follow fresh signals from CryptoQuant's proprietary PnL Index chart, which now reflects a sell signal that has historically aligned with prior market tops.

这些评论遵循CryptoQuant专有PNL指数图表的新信号，该信号现在反映了与先前市场顶级保持一致的卖出信号。

What Happened: "We are likely past the bull cycle peak," Ju said, suggesting Bitcoin may face a prolonged period of sideways or bearish movement over the next six to twelve months.

发生的事情是：“我们可能已经超越了公牛周期的山峰，” Ju说，这表明比特币可能在接下来的六到十二个月内面临横向长时间的侧面或看跌式运动。

The chart, spanning over a decade, plots Bitcoin's price alongside cyclical buy and sell signals derived from on-chain profitability metrics.

该图表涵盖了十多年，将比特币的价格与周期性的买卖信号一起绘制了来自链上盈利指标的信号。

The latest signal indicates a similar pattern to those seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each of which preceded either steep corrections or extended consolidation phases.

最新信号表明与2013年，2017年和2021年所看到的模式相似，每个模式都在陡峭的校正或扩展的合并阶段之前。

Bitcoin currently trades around $81,550, holding above key psychological levels despite broader market caution.

比特币目前的交易约为81,550美元，尽管市场谨慎，但比特币的交易量高于关键心理水平。

This resilience is echoed by Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev, who described the market as entering a crucial consolidation phase.

Nexo调度分析师Iliya Kalchev回应了这种韧性，后者将市场描述为进入关键的合并阶段。

"Bitcoin is at a critical juncture," Kalchev said. "Support is holding around $82,000, but deeper levels near $73,000 may come into play depending on market sentiment."

卡尔切夫说：“比特币处于关键时刻。” “支持持有约82,000美元，但根据市场情绪，更深层次的水平接近73,000美元。”

While recent inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest some institutional confidence—with $274 million in net inflows recorded on Monday—the broader sentiment remains mixed amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

尽管最近流入了我们现货比特币ETF，这表明机构信心（周一记录的2.74亿美元的净流入量）在宏观经济不确定性的情况下仍然混乱。

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"The renewed ETF interest could be a positive driver, but this market could still go in many directions," Kalchev added.

卡尔切夫补充说：“新的ETF利益可能是一个积极的推动力，但这个市场仍然可以朝许多方向发展。”

CryptoQuant's cyclical analysis reinforces these concerns, showing that Bitcoin tends to experience cooling-off periods following major cyclical tops.

加密的周期性分析加剧了这些担忧，表明比特币倾向于在主要周期性顶部经历冷却期。

The historical chart's orange sell indicators, including the latest signal for 2025, have often been followed by six to twelve months of weak or sideways performance before new buying opportunities emerge.

历史图表的橙色卖出指标，包括2025年的最新信号，随后是六到十二个月的弱或侧向表现，然后出现了新的购买机会。

The wider market is also reflecting caution.

更广泛的市场也反映出谨慎。

Kalchev noted Ethereum ETH/USD is hovering near $1,890, while Solana SOL/USD slipped to around $124 amid broader weakness in altcoins.

Kalchev指出，以太坊ETH/USD徘徊在$ 1,890的接近$ 1,890，而Solana Sol/USD在Altcoins的较大弱点中跌至124美元左右。

What’s Next: Amid these technical factors, the market's next moves could hinge on Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, which may influence risk asset sentiment globally.

接下来是什么：在这些技术因素中，市场的下一步可能会取决于周三的美国储备率决定，这可能会影响全球风险资产情绪。

Geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary risks tied to U.S. tariffs have cast a shadow over investor confidence.

与美国关税相关的地缘政治不确定性和通货膨胀风险对投资者的信心产生了阴影。

"This is a market in wait mode. Vigilance is key as institutional players assess both the macro backdrop and on-chain signals," Kalchev concluded.

卡尔切夫总结说：“这是一个处于等待模式的市场。警惕是关键的，因为机构参与者评估了宏观背景和链链信号。”

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