根據加密量，比特幣的BTC/USD牛週期似乎已經結束

這些評論遵循CryptoQuant專有PNL指數圖表的新信號，該信號現在反映了與先前市場頂級保持一致的賣出信號。

Bitcoin's BTC/USD bull cycle appears to have come to an end, according to Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

區塊鏈分析公司CryptoQuant的創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju表示，比特幣的BTC/USD公牛週期似乎已經結束。

The comments follow fresh signals from CryptoQuant's proprietary PnL Index chart, which now reflects a sell signal that has historically aligned with prior market tops.

這些評論遵循CryptoQuant專有PNL指數圖表的新信號，該信號現在反映了與先前市場頂級保持一致的賣出信號。

What Happened: "We are likely past the bull cycle peak," Ju said, suggesting Bitcoin may face a prolonged period of sideways or bearish movement over the next six to twelve months.

發生的事情是：“我們可能已經超越了公牛週期的山峰，” Ju說，這表明比特幣可能在接下來的六到十二個月內面臨橫向長時間的側面或看跌式運動。

The chart, spanning over a decade, plots Bitcoin's price alongside cyclical buy and sell signals derived from on-chain profitability metrics.

該圖表涵蓋了十多年，將比特幣的價格與週期性的買賣信號一起繪製了來自鏈上盈利指標的信號。

The latest signal indicates a similar pattern to those seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each of which preceded either steep corrections or extended consolidation phases.

最新信號表明與2013年，2017年和2021年所看到的模式相似，每個模式都在陡峭的校正或擴展的合併階段之前。

Bitcoin currently trades around $81,550, holding above key psychological levels despite broader market caution.

比特幣目前的交易約為81,550美元，儘管市場謹慎，但比特幣的交易量高於關鍵心理水平。

This resilience is echoed by Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev, who described the market as entering a crucial consolidation phase.

Nexo調度分析師Iliya Kalchev回應了這種韌性，後者將市場描述為進入關鍵的合併階段。

"Bitcoin is at a critical juncture," Kalchev said. "Support is holding around $82,000, but deeper levels near $73,000 may come into play depending on market sentiment."

卡爾切夫說：“比特幣處於關鍵時刻。” “支持持有約82,000美元，但根據市場情緒，更深層次的水平接近73,000美元。”

While recent inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest some institutional confidence—with $274 million in net inflows recorded on Monday—the broader sentiment remains mixed amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

儘管最近流入了我們現貨比特幣ETF，這表明機構信心（週一記錄的2.74億美元的淨流入量）在宏觀經濟不確定性的情況下仍然混亂。

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"The renewed ETF interest could be a positive driver, but this market could still go in many directions," Kalchev added.

卡爾切夫補充說：“新的ETF利益可能是一個積極的推動力，但這個市場仍然可以朝許多方向發展。”

CryptoQuant's cyclical analysis reinforces these concerns, showing that Bitcoin tends to experience cooling-off periods following major cyclical tops.

加密的周期性分析加劇了這些擔憂，表明比特幣傾向於在主要周期性頂部經歷冷卻期。

The historical chart's orange sell indicators, including the latest signal for 2025, have often been followed by six to twelve months of weak or sideways performance before new buying opportunities emerge.

歷史圖表的橙色賣出指標，包括2025年的最新信號，隨後是六到十二個月的弱或側向表現，然後出現了新的購買機會。

The wider market is also reflecting caution.

更廣泛的市場也反映出謹慎。

Kalchev noted Ethereum ETH/USD is hovering near $1,890, while Solana SOL/USD slipped to around $124 amid broader weakness in altcoins.

Kalchev指出，以太坊ETH/USD徘徊在$ 1,890的接近$ 1,890，而Solana Sol/USD在Altcoins的較大弱點中跌至124美元左右。

What’s Next: Amid these technical factors, the market's next moves could hinge on Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, which may influence risk asset sentiment globally.

接下來是什麼：在這些技術因素中，市場的下一步可能會取決於週三的美國儲備率決定，這可能會影響全球風險資產情緒。

Geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary risks tied to U.S. tariffs have cast a shadow over investor confidence.

與美國關稅相關的地緣政治不確定性和通貨膨脹風險對投資者的信心產生了陰影。

"This is a market in wait mode. Vigilance is key as institutional players assess both the macro backdrop and on-chain signals," Kalchev concluded.

卡爾切夫總結說：“這是一個處於等待模式的市場。警惕是關鍵的，因為機構參與者評估了宏觀背景和鍊鍊信號。”

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