比特币[BTC]鲸可能准备倾倒

比特币[BTC]可能正在进入湍流水域。在选择市场中，在交换鲸鱼活动和谨慎的谨慎态度方面正在闪烁预警信号。

Bitcoin price may be heading into turbulent waters, as signals from exchange whale activity and the Options market are flashing early warning signs of potential turbulence.

比特币价格可能正在进入湍流水域，因为交换鲸鱼活动的信号和期权市场正在闪烁潜在湍流的预警信号。

As the exchange whale ratio climbs to its highest level in over a year and put options outpace calls in both volumes and premium, traders appear to be bracing for greater volatility.

随着交换鲸比在一年多以来的最高水平上升到最高水平，并将期权的销售量升至数量和溢价中，交易者似乎在支撑更大的波动性。

This shift in technical positioning suggests that some of the market’s biggest players might be preparing to sell, raising the possibility of more significant price swings in the days ahead.

技术定位的这种转变表明，一些市场最大的参与者可能正在准备出售，这增加了未来几天价格波动更大的可能性。

Exchange whale ratio – A signal of potential selling pressure

交换鲸比 - 潜在销售压力的信号

The Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the ratio of large trades (≥100 BTC) to small trades (<10 BTC) entering exchanges, recently spiked to 0.6.

交换鲸比测量了进入交易所的大型交易（≥100BTC）与小型交易（<10 BTC）的比率，最近峰值达到0.6。

This marks the highest reading in over a year, indicating that whales are now responsible for a larger share of Bitcoin entering exchanges.

这标志着一年多的阅读量最高，表明鲸鱼现在负责更大的比特币进入交易所。

Credit: Cryptoquant

图片来源：加密量

As the chart highlights, similar spikes in mid-2024 were followed by notable price declines.

正如图表的亮点所述，在2024年中期，类似的峰值随后出现了显着的价格下降。

The latest hike, which occurred on August 15, coincided with Bitcoin’s recent price retracement from its 2024 high, suggesting that whales could be reallocating assets in anticipation of market weakness.

最新的远足发生于8月15日，这是与比特币从2024年高的最近价格回购的，这表明鲸鱼可能会在预期市场疲软的情况下重新分配资产。

If past trends hold, more elevated whale ratio levels could be a prelude to greater volatility as large-scale selling activity begins to influence price action more heavily.

如果过去的趋势持续存在，鲸鱼比率升高可能是更大的波动性的序幕，因为大规模销售活动开始对价格行动产生更大的影响。

Bitcoin Options market – Growing demand for downside protection

比特币期权市场 - 对下行保护的需求不断增长

Bitcoin‘s Options market has also been displaying interesting trends that point towards a cautious stance from traders.

比特币的期权市场还展示了有趣的趋势，这些趋势表明了交易者的谨慎立场。

Options provide investors with the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. They allow investors to hedge against price swings and capitalize on anticipated market movements.

期权为投资者提供权利但没有义务，以在特定日期或之前以预定价格购买或出售基础资产。它们允许投资者对冲价格波动并利用预期的市场变动。

A glance at the implied volatility smile chart for Bitcoin shows that traders are paying a steeper premium for put options, which provide the holder with the right to sell Bitcoin at the strike price, compared to call options, which grant the right to buy.

一眼看起比特币隐含的波动性微笑图表明，交易者正在为PUT期权支付更陡峭的保费，这使持有人具有以行使价格出售比特币的权利，而与呼叫期权相比，授予购买权的权利。

This difference in premiums is more pronounced for lower strike prices, indicating a stronger demand for downside protection as investors brace for potential declines.

对于较低的打击价格，保费的这种差异更为明显，这表明投资者支撑潜在下降的情况下，对下行保护的需求更强。

The steeper leftward skew on the chart also hints at higher fear of short-term volatility, which seems to be driving traders to adopt more defensive strategies.

图表上的陡峭向左倾斜也暗示了对短期波动性的更高恐惧，这似乎促使交易者采取更具防御性的策略。

This surge in put premiums is also a sign of investor sentiment shifting towards a more wary outlook, aligning with the on-chain signals of whale activity and ultimately pointing to a more cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the near term.

Put Previums的这种激增也表明投资者情绪转向更加警惕的前景，与鲸鱼活动的链链信号保持一致，并最终指出了在短期内对比特币的更加谨慎的前景。

What’s next for Bitcoin?

比特币的下一步是什么？

The recent uptick in large Bitcoin (BTC) trades, known as whale activity, signals a potential shift in market trends.

最近在大型比特币（BTC）交易中，被称为鲸鱼活动的增长标志着市场趋势的潜在变化。

As the exchange whale ratio climbs to its highest level in over a year and put options outpace calls in both volumes and premium, traders appear to be bracing for greater volatility.

随着交换鲸比在一年多以来的最高水平上升到最高水平，并将期权的销售量升至数量和溢价中，交易者似乎在支撑更大的波动性。

This shift in technical positioning suggests that some of the market’s biggest players might be preparing to sell, which could lead to more significant price swings in the days ahead.

技术定位的这种转变表明，一些市场最大的参与者可能准备出售，这可能会导致未来几天的价格波动更大。

The Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the ratio of large trades (≥100 BTC) to small trades (<10 BTC) entering exchanges, recently spiked to 0.6.

交换鲸比测量了进入交易所的大型交易（≥100BTC）与小型交易（<10 BTC）的比率，最近峰值达到0.6。

This marks the highest reading in over a year, indicating that whales are now responsible for a larger share of Bitcoin entering exchanges.

这标志着一年多的阅读量最高，表明鲸鱼现在负责更大的比特币进入交易所。

As the chart highlights, similar spikes in mid-2024 were followed by notable price declines.

正如图表的亮点所述，在2024年中期，类似的峰值随后出现了显着的价格下降。

The latest hike, which occurred on August 15, coincided with Bitcoin’s recent price retracement from its 2024 high, suggesting that whales could be reallocating assets in anticipation of market weakness.

最新的远足发生于8月15日，这是与比特币从2024年高的最近价格回购的，这表明鲸鱼可能会在预期市场疲软的情况下重新分配资产。

If past trends hold, more elevated whale ratio levels could be a prelude to greater volatility as large-scale selling activity begins to influence price action more heavily.

如果过去的趋势持续存在，鲸鱼比率升高可能是更大的波动性的序幕，因为大规模销售活动开始对价格行动产生更大的影响。

Bitcoin‘s Options market has also been displaying interesting trends that point towards a cautious stance from traders.

比特币的期权市场还展示了有趣的趋势，这些趋势表明了交易者的谨慎立场。

Options provide investors with the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. They allow investors to hedge against price swings and capitalize on anticipated market movements.

期权为投资者提供权利但没有义务，以在特定日期或之前以预定价格购买或出售基础资产。它们允许投资者对冲价格波动并利用预期的市场变动。

A glance at the implied volatility smile chart for Bitcoin shows that traders are paying a steeper premium for put options, which provide the holder with the right to sell Bitcoin at the strike price.

一瞥比特币的隐含波动性微笑图表表明，交易者正在为PUT期权支付更陡峭的溢价，这使持有人以行使价销售比特币的权利。

This pattern can be interpreted to allude to a greater demand for downside protection as investors are becoming more risk-averse and are willing to pay more to secure the protection that put options offer.

可以将这种模式解释为暗示对投资者变得越来越避免风险，并愿意支付更多的保护以确保选择权提供的保护。

The steeper leftward skew on the chart also hints at higher fear of short-term volatility, which seems to be driving traders to adopt more defensive strategies and opt for put options to mitigate potential losses.

图表上的陡峭向左倾斜也暗示了对短期波动率的更高恐惧，这似乎促使交易者采用更具防御性的策略，并选择提出选择以减轻潜在的损失。

This surge in put premiums is also a sign of investor sentiment shifting towards a more wary outlook, aligning with the on-chain signals of whale activity and ultimately pointing to a more cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the near term.

Put Previums的这种激增也表明投资者情绪转向更加警惕的前景，与鲸鱼活动的链链信号保持一致，并最终指出了在短期内对比特币的更加谨慎的前景。