比特幣[BTC]鯨可能準備傾倒

比特幣[BTC]可能正在進入湍流水域。在選擇市場中，在交換鯨魚活動和謹慎的謹慎態度方面正在閃爍預警信號。

Bitcoin price may be heading into turbulent waters, as signals from exchange whale activity and the Options market are flashing early warning signs of potential turbulence.

比特幣價格可能正在進入湍流水域，因為交換鯨魚活動的信號和期權市場正在閃爍潛在湍流的預警信號。

As the exchange whale ratio climbs to its highest level in over a year and put options outpace calls in both volumes and premium, traders appear to be bracing for greater volatility.

隨著交換鯨比在一年多以來的最高水平上升到最高水平，並將期權的銷售量升至數量和溢價中，交易者似乎在支撐更大的波動性。

This shift in technical positioning suggests that some of the market’s biggest players might be preparing to sell, raising the possibility of more significant price swings in the days ahead.

技術定位的這種轉變表明，一些市場最大的參與者可能正在準備出售，這增加了未來幾天價格波動更大的可能性。

Exchange whale ratio – A signal of potential selling pressure

交換鯨比 - 潛在銷售壓力的信號

The Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the ratio of large trades (≥100 BTC) to small trades (<10 BTC) entering exchanges, recently spiked to 0.6.

交換鯨比測量了進入交易所的大型交易（≥100BTC）與小型交易（<10 BTC）的比率，最近峰值達到0.6。

This marks the highest reading in over a year, indicating that whales are now responsible for a larger share of Bitcoin entering exchanges.

這標誌著一年多的閱讀量最高，表明鯨魚現在負責更大的比特幣進入交易所。

Credit: Cryptoquant

圖片來源：加密量

As the chart highlights, similar spikes in mid-2024 were followed by notable price declines.

正如圖表的亮點所述，在2024年中期，類似的峰值隨後出現了顯著的價格下降。

The latest hike, which occurred on August 15, coincided with Bitcoin’s recent price retracement from its 2024 high, suggesting that whales could be reallocating assets in anticipation of market weakness.

最新的遠足發生於8月15日，這是與比特幣從2024年高的最近價格回購的，這表明鯨魚可能會在預期市場疲軟的情況下重新分配資產。

If past trends hold, more elevated whale ratio levels could be a prelude to greater volatility as large-scale selling activity begins to influence price action more heavily.

如果過去的趨勢持續存在，鯨魚比率升高可能是更大的波動性的序幕，因為大規模銷售活動開始對價格行動產生更大的影響。

Bitcoin Options market – Growing demand for downside protection

比特幣期權市場 - 對下行保護的需求不斷增長

Bitcoin‘s Options market has also been displaying interesting trends that point towards a cautious stance from traders.

比特幣的期權市場還展示了有趣的趨勢，這些趨勢表明了交易者的謹慎立場。

Options provide investors with the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. They allow investors to hedge against price swings and capitalize on anticipated market movements.

期權為投資者提供權利但沒有義務，以在特定日期或之前以預定價格購買或出售基礎資產。它們允許投資者對沖價格波動並利用預期的市場變動。

A glance at the implied volatility smile chart for Bitcoin shows that traders are paying a steeper premium for put options, which provide the holder with the right to sell Bitcoin at the strike price, compared to call options, which grant the right to buy.

一眼看起比特幣隱含的波動性微笑圖表明，交易者正在為PUT期權支付更陡峭的保費，這使持有人具有以行使價格出售比特幣的權利，而與呼叫期權相比，授予購買權的權利。

This difference in premiums is more pronounced for lower strike prices, indicating a stronger demand for downside protection as investors brace for potential declines.

對於較低的打擊價格，保費的這種差異更為明顯，這表明投資者支撐潛在下降的情況下，對下行保護的需求更強。

The steeper leftward skew on the chart also hints at higher fear of short-term volatility, which seems to be driving traders to adopt more defensive strategies.

圖表上的陡峭向左傾斜也暗示了對短期波動性的更高恐懼，這似乎促使交易者採取更具防禦性的策略。

This surge in put premiums is also a sign of investor sentiment shifting towards a more wary outlook, aligning with the on-chain signals of whale activity and ultimately pointing to a more cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the near term.

Put Previums的這種激增也表明投資者情緒轉向更加警惕的前景，與鯨魚活動的鍊鍊信號保持一致，並最終指出了在短期內對比特幣的更加謹慎的前景。

What’s next for Bitcoin?

比特幣的下一步是什麼？

The recent uptick in large Bitcoin (BTC) trades, known as whale activity, signals a potential shift in market trends.

最近在大型比特幣（BTC）交易中，被稱為鯨魚活動的增長標誌著市場趨勢的潛在變化。

As the exchange whale ratio climbs to its highest level in over a year and put options outpace calls in both volumes and premium, traders appear to be bracing for greater volatility.

隨著交換鯨比在一年多以來的最高水平上升到最高水平，並將期權的銷售量升至數量和溢價中，交易者似乎在支撐更大的波動性。

This shift in technical positioning suggests that some of the market’s biggest players might be preparing to sell, which could lead to more significant price swings in the days ahead.

技術定位的這種轉變表明，一些市場最大的參與者可能準備出售，這可能會導致未來幾天的價格波動更大。

The Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the ratio of large trades (≥100 BTC) to small trades (<10 BTC) entering exchanges, recently spiked to 0.6.

交換鯨比測量了進入交易所的大型交易（≥100BTC）與小型交易（<10 BTC）的比率，最近峰值達到0.6。

This marks the highest reading in over a year, indicating that whales are now responsible for a larger share of Bitcoin entering exchanges.

這標誌著一年多的閱讀量最高，表明鯨魚現在負責更大的比特幣進入交易所。

As the chart highlights, similar spikes in mid-2024 were followed by notable price declines.

正如圖表的亮點所述，在2024年中期，類似的峰值隨後出現了顯著的價格下降。

The latest hike, which occurred on August 15, coincided with Bitcoin’s recent price retracement from its 2024 high, suggesting that whales could be reallocating assets in anticipation of market weakness.

最新的遠足發生於8月15日，這是與比特幣從2024年高的最近價格回購的，這表明鯨魚可能會在預期市場疲軟的情況下重新分配資產。

If past trends hold, more elevated whale ratio levels could be a prelude to greater volatility as large-scale selling activity begins to influence price action more heavily.

如果過去的趨勢持續存在，鯨魚比率升高可能是更大的波動性的序幕，因為大規模銷售活動開始對價格行動產生更大的影響。

Bitcoin‘s Options market has also been displaying interesting trends that point towards a cautious stance from traders.

比特幣的期權市場還展示了有趣的趨勢，這些趨勢表明了交易者的謹慎立場。

Options provide investors with the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. They allow investors to hedge against price swings and capitalize on anticipated market movements.

期權為投資者提供權利但沒有義務，以在特定日期或之前以預定價格購買或出售基礎資產。它們允許投資者對沖價格波動並利用預期的市場變動。

A glance at the implied volatility smile chart for Bitcoin shows that traders are paying a steeper premium for put options, which provide the holder with the right to sell Bitcoin at the strike price.

一瞥比特幣的隱含波動性微笑圖表表明，交易者正在為PUT期權支付更陡峭的溢價，這使持有人以行使價銷售比特幣的權利。

This pattern can be interpreted to allude to a greater demand for downside protection as investors are becoming more risk-averse and are willing to pay more to secure the protection that put options offer.

可以將這種模式解釋為暗示對投資者變得越來越避免風險，並願意支付更多的保護以確保選擇權提供的保護。

The steeper leftward skew on the chart also hints at higher fear of short-term volatility, which seems to be driving traders to adopt more defensive strategies and opt for put options to mitigate potential losses.

圖表上的陡峭向左傾斜也暗示了對短期波動率的更高恐懼，這似乎促使交易者採用更具防禦性的策略，並選擇提出選擇以減輕潛在的損失。

This surge in put premiums is also a sign of investor sentiment shifting towards a more wary outlook, aligning with the on-chain signals of whale activity and ultimately pointing to a more cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the near term.

Put Previums的這種激增也表明投資者情緒轉向更加警惕的前景，與鯨魚活動的鍊鍊信號保持一致，並最終指出了在短期內對比特幣的更加謹慎的前景。