尽管不利的宏观经济因素存在下行风险，但比特币（BTC）鲸鱼越来越看好

比特币（BTC）最富有的贸易商和投资者越来越对BTC看涨，尽管面临不利的宏观经济因素的下行风险

Bitcoin (BTC) whales and investors are pivoting toward more bullish activity despite facing persistent macroeconomic risks, the latest onchain data suggests.

最新的OnChain数据表明，尽管面临持续的宏观经济风险，但比特币（BTC）鲸鱼和投资者仍在向更看涨的活动旋转。

Bitcoin whales absorb 300% of new supply

比特币鲸吸收了300％的新供应

Bitcoin whales and sharks are now scooping up BTC at record rates—over 300% of yearly issuance—while exchanges are losing coins at a historic pace, according to Glassnode.

据GlassNode称，现在以创纪录的速度（占年度发行的300％）在比特币鲸和鲨鱼以历史悠久的速度丢失硬币时，以创纪录的速度（300％的年度发行​​）sc起BTC。

This year, the yearly absorption rate by exchanges has plunged below -200% as outflows continue, showcasing a strong shift toward self-custody or long-term investment.

今年，随着流出的继续，交易所的年度吸收率下降到-200％以下，展现了向自我顾客或长期投资的强烈转变。

At the same time, larger holders (100–1,000+ BTC) are scooping up more than three times the new issuance—the fastest rate of accumulation among sharks and whales throughout Bitcoin’s history.

同时，较大的持有人（100-1,000+ BTC）的sc起新发行的三倍以上，这是比特币历史上鲨鱼和鲸鱼之间最快的积累率。

This marks a structural shift as traditional finance is increasingly adopting BTC, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year. As a result, less BTC is flowing to crypto exchanges, and big holders are displaying long-term bullish conviction.

这标志着结构性的转变，因为传统财务越来越多地采用BTC，尤其是在去年批准了比特币ETF之后。结果，较少的BTC流向加密交流，大持有人表现出长期的看涨信念。

Most cohorts are buying the BTC price dip

大多数队列都在购买BTC价格下跌

Whales holding over 10,000 BTC remain in strong accumulation territory, with their Trend Accumulation Score at around 0.7 as of April 18, according to Glassnode.

根据GlassNode的数据，截至4月18日，持有超过10,000 BTC的鲸鱼仍在强大的积累领域中，其趋势积累得分左右。

This metric assesses whether a cohort is distributing (0) or accumulating (1), offering insights into the prevailing market behavior. A score closer to 1 indicates more bullish activity.

该度量标准评估了队列是分发（0）还是累积（1），从而提供了对现行市场行为的见解。得分接近1表示更多看涨活动。

In contrast, the sell-off in smaller cohorts that have been distributing earlier in the year appears to be slowing down. That includes the 10–100 BTC and the 1-100 BTC groups, whose scores have climbed back to a neutral zone at around 0.5.

相比之下，今年早些时候已经分发的较小人群的抛售似乎正在放缓。其中包括10-100 BTC和1-100 BTC组，其分数在0.5左右爬回中立区。

Even the smallest cohort (<1 BTC), largely composed of retail participants, is no longer in deep distribution mode, indicating a broader pivot back toward accumulation among most Bitcoin groups.

即使是最小的队列（<1 BTC），主要由零售参与者组成，也不再处于深度分布模式，这表明大多数比特币组的积累更广泛。

Onchain analyst Mignolet adds that the whale behavior is similar to what preceded Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run.

OnChain分析师Mignolet补充说，鲸鱼行为与比特币2020年公牛跑之前的行为相似。

Bitcoin falling wedge breakout hints at $100K

比特币掉落的楔形突破提示为$ 10万美元

Bitcoin has broken out of a multimonth falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal that could drive its price toward the $100,000 mark by May.

比特币已经摆脱了多个月掉落的楔形模式，表明潜在的看涨逆转可能会将其价格推向5月的100,000美元。

A falling wedge forms when price action slides between two converging trendlines and typically resolves with an upside breakout. Traders usually measure the wedge’s upside target by taking the maximum height of the pattern and adding it to the breakout price.

当价格动作在两个融合趋势线之间滑动并通常以上行突破的方式解决时，形成了掉落的楔形。交易者通常通过采取图案的最大高度并将其添加到突破价格中来衡量楔形的上行目标。

Applying this rule of technical analysis brings Bitcoin’s target to over $101,570.

应用此技术分析规则将比特币的目标超过$ 101,570。

Conversely, BTC’s price is testing its 50-day (the red wave) and 200-day (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMAs) around $85,300 as resistance. A bearish rejection from these EMAs risks pushing BTC’s price toward the wedge’s upper trendline near $80,000.

相反，BTC的价格正在测试其50天（红波）和200天（蓝波）指数移动平均值（EMAS），约为85,300美元，作为电阻。这些EMAS的看跌拒绝风险将BTC的价格推向了楔子的上层趋势线，接近80,000美元。

“The 200-day moving average remains overhead as resistance, and the horizontal level at $88,804 will still need to be flipped to change market structure and print a higher high,” wrote market analyst Scott Melker, adding:

市场分析师斯科特·梅尔克（Scott Melker）补充说：“ 200天的移动平均水平仍然是阻力，而水平水平为88,804美元仍需要翻转以改变市场结构并打印出更高的高度。”