儘管不利的宏觀經濟因素存在下行風險，但比特幣（BTC）鯨魚越來越看好

比特幣（BTC）最富有的貿易商和投資者越來越對BTC看漲，儘管面臨不利的宏觀經濟因素的下行風險

Bitcoin (BTC) whales and investors are pivoting toward more bullish activity despite facing persistent macroeconomic risks, the latest onchain data suggests.

最新的OnChain數據表明，儘管面臨持續的宏觀經濟風險，但比特幣（BTC）鯨魚和投資者仍在向更看漲的活動旋轉。

Bitcoin whales absorb 300% of new supply

比特幣鯨吸收了300％的新供應

Bitcoin whales and sharks are now scooping up BTC at record rates—over 300% of yearly issuance—while exchanges are losing coins at a historic pace, according to Glassnode.

據GlassNode稱，現在以創紀錄的速度（佔年度發行的300％）在比特幣鯨和鯊魚以歷史悠久的速度丟失硬幣時，以創紀錄的速度（300％的年度發行​​）sc起BTC。

This year, the yearly absorption rate by exchanges has plunged below -200% as outflows continue, showcasing a strong shift toward self-custody or long-term investment.

今年，隨著流出的繼續，交易所的年度吸收率下降到-200％以下，展現了向自我顧客或長期投資的強烈轉變。

At the same time, larger holders (100–1,000+ BTC) are scooping up more than three times the new issuance—the fastest rate of accumulation among sharks and whales throughout Bitcoin’s history.

同時，較大的持有人（100-1,000+ BTC）的sc起新發行的三倍以上，這是比特幣歷史上鯊魚和鯨魚之間最快的積累率。

This marks a structural shift as traditional finance is increasingly adopting BTC, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year. As a result, less BTC is flowing to crypto exchanges, and big holders are displaying long-term bullish conviction.

這標誌著結構性的轉變，因為傳統財務越來越多地採用BTC，尤其是在去年批准了比特幣ETF之後。結果，較少的BTC流向加密交流，大持有人表現出長期的看漲信念。

Most cohorts are buying the BTC price dip

大多數隊列都在購買BTC價格下跌

Whales holding over 10,000 BTC remain in strong accumulation territory, with their Trend Accumulation Score at around 0.7 as of April 18, according to Glassnode.

根據GlassNode的數據，截至4月18日，持有超過10,000 BTC的鯨魚仍在強大的積累領域中，其趨勢積累得分左右。

This metric assesses whether a cohort is distributing (0) or accumulating (1), offering insights into the prevailing market behavior. A score closer to 1 indicates more bullish activity.

該度量標準評估了隊列是分發（0）還是累積（1），從而提供了對現行市場行為的見解。得分接近1表示更多看漲活動。

In contrast, the sell-off in smaller cohorts that have been distributing earlier in the year appears to be slowing down. That includes the 10–100 BTC and the 1-100 BTC groups, whose scores have climbed back to a neutral zone at around 0.5.

相比之下，今年早些時候已經分發的較小人群的拋售似乎正在放緩。其中包括10-100 BTC和1-100 BTC組，其分數在0.5左右爬回中立區。

Even the smallest cohort (<1 BTC), largely composed of retail participants, is no longer in deep distribution mode, indicating a broader pivot back toward accumulation among most Bitcoin groups.

即使是最小的隊列（<1 BTC），主要由零售參與者組成，也不再處於深度分佈模式，這表明大多數比特幣組的積累更廣泛。

Onchain analyst Mignolet adds that the whale behavior is similar to what preceded Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run.

OnChain分析師Mignolet補充說，鯨魚行為與比特幣2020年公牛跑之前的行為相似。

Bitcoin falling wedge breakout hints at $100K

比特幣掉落的楔形突破提示為$ 10萬美元

Bitcoin has broken out of a multimonth falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal that could drive its price toward the $100,000 mark by May.

比特幣已經擺脫了多個月掉落的楔形模式，表明潛在的看漲逆轉可能會將其價格推向5月的100,000美元。

A falling wedge forms when price action slides between two converging trendlines and typically resolves with an upside breakout. Traders usually measure the wedge’s upside target by taking the maximum height of the pattern and adding it to the breakout price.

當價格動作在兩個融合趨勢線之間滑動並通常以上行突破的方式解決時，形成了掉落的楔形。交易者通常通過採取圖案的最大高度並將其添加到突破價格中來衡量楔形的上行目標。

Applying this rule of technical analysis brings Bitcoin’s target to over $101,570.

應用此技術分析規則將比特幣的目標超過$ 101,570。

Conversely, BTC’s price is testing its 50-day (the red wave) and 200-day (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMAs) around $85,300 as resistance. A bearish rejection from these EMAs risks pushing BTC’s price toward the wedge’s upper trendline near $80,000.

相反，BTC的價格正在測試其50天（紅波）和200天（藍波）指數移動平均值（EMAS），約為85,300美元，作為電阻。這些EMAS的看跌拒絕風險將BTC的價格推向了楔子的上層趨勢線，接近80,000美元。

“The 200-day moving average remains overhead as resistance, and the horizontal level at $88,804 will still need to be flipped to change market structure and print a higher high,” wrote market analyst Scott Melker, adding:

市場分析師斯科特·梅爾克（Scott Melker）補充說：“ 200天的移動平均水平仍然是阻力，而水平水平為88,804美元仍需要翻轉以改變市場結構並打印出更高的高度。”