Bitcoin (BTC) Whales Are Increasingly Bullish Despite Downside Risks From Unfavorable Macroeconomic Factors

Bitcoin's (BTC) richest traders and investors are increasingly bullish on BTC despite facing downside risks from unfavorable macroeconomic factors

Bitcoin (BTC) whales and investors are pivoting toward more bullish activity despite facing persistent macroeconomic risks, the latest onchain data suggests.

Bitcoin whales absorb 300% of new supply

Bitcoin whales and sharks are now scooping up BTC at record rates—over 300% of yearly issuance—while exchanges are losing coins at a historic pace, according to Glassnode.

This year, the yearly absorption rate by exchanges has plunged below -200% as outflows continue, showcasing a strong shift toward self-custody or long-term investment.

At the same time, larger holders (100–1,000+ BTC) are scooping up more than three times the new issuance—the fastest rate of accumulation among sharks and whales throughout Bitcoin’s history.

This marks a structural shift as traditional finance is increasingly adopting BTC, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year. As a result, less BTC is flowing to crypto exchanges, and big holders are displaying long-term bullish conviction.

Most cohorts are buying the BTC price dip

Whales holding over 10,000 BTC remain in strong accumulation territory, with their Trend Accumulation Score at around 0.7 as of April 18, according to Glassnode.

This metric assesses whether a cohort is distributing (0) or accumulating (1), offering insights into the prevailing market behavior. A score closer to 1 indicates more bullish activity.

In contrast, the sell-off in smaller cohorts that have been distributing earlier in the year appears to be slowing down. That includes the 10–100 BTC and the 1-100 BTC groups, whose scores have climbed back to a neutral zone at around 0.5.

Even the smallest cohort (<1 BTC), largely composed of retail participants, is no longer in deep distribution mode, indicating a broader pivot back toward accumulation among most Bitcoin groups.

Onchain analyst Mignolet adds that the whale behavior is similar to what preceded Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run.

Bitcoin falling wedge breakout hints at $100K

Bitcoin has broken out of a multimonth falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal that could drive its price toward the $100,000 mark by May.

A falling wedge forms when price action slides between two converging trendlines and typically resolves with an upside breakout. Traders usually measure the wedge’s upside target by taking the maximum height of the pattern and adding it to the breakout price.

Applying this rule of technical analysis brings Bitcoin’s target to over $101,570.

Conversely, BTC’s price is testing its 50-day (the red wave) and 200-day (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMAs) around $85,300 as resistance. A bearish rejection from these EMAs risks pushing BTC’s price toward the wedge’s upper trendline near $80,000.

“The 200-day moving average remains overhead as resistance, and the horizontal level at $88,804 will still need to be flipped to change market structure and print a higher high,” wrote market analyst Scott Melker, adding: