比特币（BTC）可能会在来年进行更正或侧向运动

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju宣布，比特币的公牛周期已经结束，并预测，在接下来的6到12个月中，价格将下降或侧向。

CryptoQuant CEO Predicts Bitcoin Correction or Sideways Movement for 6-12 Months

CryptoQuant CEO预测比特币校正或侧向运动6-12个月

The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with anticipation as the year progresses, and recent predictions from a prominent crypto analyst have sparked discussion and speculation among investors.

随着年份的发展，加密货币市场一直在人们期待，而著名的加密分析师的最新预测引发了投资者之间的讨论和猜测。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has hinted at the possibility of Bitcoin undergoing a period of correction or sideways movement in the coming year.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju暗示了比特币在来年进行更正或侧向运动的可能性。

Earlier, the CEO had stated that "it’s too early to call it a bear market," a perspective that was evident in the CryptoQuant chart.

该首席执行官早些时候表示，“现在称其为熊市还为时过早”，这是加密图表中很明显的观点。

The chart showcases Bitcoin’s price (black line) going through several strong volatility cycles:

该图表展示了比特币的价格（黑线）经历了几个强大的波动周期：

The chart highlights two key color zones representing capital flow trends in the market:

该图表强调了两个主要的色彩区域，代表了市场中资本流趋势：

• Green Zone: Periods of high ‘Apparent Demand,’ indicating strong buying pressure and potential price increases.

•绿色区域：高“明显需求”的时期，表明强烈的购买压力和潜在价格上涨。

• Red Zone: Phases of low ‘Apparent Demand,’ signaling weak buying pressure and potential price decreases.

•红色区域：低“明显需求”的阶段，信号降低了购买压力和潜在价格下降。

The lower window of the chart displays the ‘Apparent Demand’ index by CryptoQuant, which aims to measure market demand.

图表的下部窗口显示了CryptoQuant的“明显需求”指数，该指数旨在衡量市场需求。

The upper window shows the percentage change in Bitcoin price over different time periods: 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year.

上窗显示了不同时间段比特币价格的百分比变化：1周，1个月，3个月和1年。

The CEO further explained his reasoning for this prediction, citing four main factors that have influenced his outlook on Bitcoin’s near-term price movements.

首席执行官进一步解释了他对这一预测的推理，理由是四个主要因素影响了他对比特币近期价格变动的看法。

1) PnL Index Cyclical Signals

1）PNL指数周期性信号

The PnL Index, a metric that measures the profitability or unprofitability of short-term Bitcoin holders, is a valuable indicator of market trends.

PNL指数是一种衡量短期比特币持有人的盈利能力或不合格性的指标，是市场趋势的宝贵指标。

The chart shows that Bitcoin follows a clear cycle of growth and correction, as reflected in the following signals:

该图表显示，比特币遵循了一个清晰的生长和校正循环，如以下信号所示：

• Green signals: Periods of high PnL, indicating strong buying pressure and potential for price increases.

•绿色信号：高PNL的时期，表明购买压力很大，价格上涨了。

• But as the PnL decreases, it acts as a barrier to further price gains.

•但是随着PNL的减少，它是进一步价格上涨的障碍。

• Red signals: Phases of low or negative PnL, suggesting weak buying pressure and potential for price decreases or corrections.

•红色信号：低或负PNL的阶段，表明购买压力较弱以及价格下降或更正的潜力。

The lower window of the chart displays the PnL Index by CryptoQuant.

图表的下部窗口通过加密量显示PNL索引。

The upper window shows Bitcoin's price trends over different time periods: 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year.

上窗显示了比特币在不同时间段的价格趋势：1周，1个月，3个月和1年。

2) On-chain metrics signaling a bear market:

2）链上指标表明熊市：

Several on-chain indicators are flashing warning signs of a potential bear market.

几个链上指标正在闪烁潜在熊市的警告信号。

• MVRV ratio: Measures the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to realized capitalization, indicating market value overbought or oversold conditions.

•MVRV比率：衡量比特币市值与已实现资本化的比率，表明市场价值过多或过多的条件。

• SOPR: (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the average profit or loss of Bitcoin units as they are spent.

•SOPR ：（用过的产出利润率）衡量比特币单位的平均利润或损失。

• NUPL: (Net Unpaid Loss Payoff) shows the amount of realized losses to be paid to continue the chain reaction.

•NUPL ：（未付净损失的回报）显示了要支付的已实现损失的金额，以继续链条反应。

These indicators have appeared in past bear markets, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of increased risk or potential market adjustment.

这些指标已经出现在过去的熊市中，这表明比特币可能正在进入风险增加或潜在市场调整的阶段。

3) New liquidity drying up:

3）新的流动性枯竭：

Institutional capital inflows and Bitcoin ETFs have declined, leading to a lack of liquidity to support BTC prices. For example, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has recorded three consecutive weeks of outflows.

机构资本流入和比特币ETF下降，导致缺乏支持BTC价格的流动性。例如，贝莱德（Blackrock）的比特币ETF连续三个星期的流出记录。

4) Whales selling BTC at lower prices:

4）以较低的价格出售BTC的鲸鱼：

Large Bitcoin holders (Whales) are offloading their BTC at lower price levels, adding downward pressure to the market.

大型比特币持有人（鲸鱼）以较低的价格水平卸载其BTC，从而增加了市场压力。

Based on these factors, Bitcoin BTC is facing strong downward pressure and could be entering a bear market. However, the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and difficult to predict. Investors should remain cautious, closely monitor key market indicators, and stay informed to make sound investment decisions.

基于这些因素，比特币BTC面临着强大的向下压力，可能会进入熊市。但是，加密货币市场本质上是波动的，难以预测。投资者应保持谨慎，密切监控关键市场指标，并随时了解明智的投资决策。

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DeFi’s Unexpected Decline in 2025: A Deeper Look

Defi在2025年意外下降：更深入的外观

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) was expected to be a key driver of the crypto bull cycle, providing decentralized financial services such as lending, borrowing, staking, and yield farming. However, as of early 2025, DeFi has been facing a decline and has not met initial expectations.

预计分散的金融（DEFI）将是加密牛周期的主要驱动力，提供分散的金融服务，例如贷款，借贷，积分和产量耕种。但是，截至2025年初，DeFi一直面临下降，并且没有达到最初的预期。

Here’s a detailed analysis based on recent data and research, as of March 19, 2025.

截至2025年3月19日，这是基于最新数据和研究的详细分析。

Background and Initial Expectations

背景和初始期望

DeFi is a decentralized financial ecosystem built on blockchain technology, enabling users to conduct financial transactions without intermediaries like banks or traditional financial institutions.

DEFI是一个基于区块链技术建立的分散金融生态系统，使用户能够在没有银行或传统金融机构（例如银行或传统金融机构）的情况下进行金融交易。

During the uptrend, DeFi was anticipated to attract more capital through yield farming, staking, and innovative financial products.

在上升趋势期间，DEFI预计将通过产量耕作，积累和创新的金融产品吸引更多的资本。

According to Exploding Topics, in 2020, DeFi’s Total Value Locked (TVL) increased 14 times, and by 2021, TVL peaked at $112.07 billion, showcasing its growth potential during bull markets.

根据爆炸性的话题，2020年，Defi的总价值锁定（TVL）增长了14次，到2021年，TVL达到了1,120.7亿美元的顶峰，在牛市中展示了其增长潜力。

The expectation was that DeFi would continue to drive the next uptrend, with TVL soaring due to new capital inflows

期望DEFI将继续推动下一个上升趋势，而由于新资本流入，TVL飙升