比特幣（BTC）可能會在來年進行更正或側向運動

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju宣布，比特幣的公牛週期已經結束，並預測，在接下來的6到12個月中，價格將下降或側向。

CryptoQuant CEO Predicts Bitcoin Correction or Sideways Movement for 6-12 Months

CryptoQuant CEO預測比特幣校正或側向運動6-12個月

The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with anticipation as the year progresses, and recent predictions from a prominent crypto analyst have sparked discussion and speculation among investors.

隨著年份的發展，加密貨幣市場一直在人們期待，而著名的加密分析師的最新預測引發了投資者之間的討論和猜測。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has hinted at the possibility of Bitcoin undergoing a period of correction or sideways movement in the coming year.

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju暗示了比特幣在來年進行更正或側向運動的可能性。

Earlier, the CEO had stated that "it’s too early to call it a bear market," a perspective that was evident in the CryptoQuant chart.

該首席執行官早些時候表示，“現在稱其為熊市還為時過早”，這是加密圖表中很明顯的觀點。

The chart showcases Bitcoin’s price (black line) going through several strong volatility cycles:

該圖表展示了比特幣的價格（黑線）經歷了幾個強大的波動週期：

The chart highlights two key color zones representing capital flow trends in the market:

該圖表強調了兩個主要的色彩區域，代表了市場中資本流趨勢：

• Green Zone: Periods of high ‘Apparent Demand,’ indicating strong buying pressure and potential price increases.

•綠色區域：高“明顯需求”的時期，表明強烈的購買壓力和潛在價格上漲。

• Red Zone: Phases of low ‘Apparent Demand,’ signaling weak buying pressure and potential price decreases.

•紅色區域：低“明顯需求”的階段，信號降低了購買壓力和潛在價格下降。

The lower window of the chart displays the ‘Apparent Demand’ index by CryptoQuant, which aims to measure market demand.

圖表的下部窗口顯示了CryptoQuant的“明顯需求”指數，該指數旨在衡量市場需求。

The upper window shows the percentage change in Bitcoin price over different time periods: 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year.

上窗顯示了不同時間段比特幣價格的百分比變化：1週，1個月，3個月和1年。

The CEO further explained his reasoning for this prediction, citing four main factors that have influenced his outlook on Bitcoin’s near-term price movements.

首席執行官進一步解釋了他對這一預測的推理，理由是四個主要因素影響了他對比特幣近期價格變動的看法。

1) PnL Index Cyclical Signals

1）PNL指數週期性信號

The PnL Index, a metric that measures the profitability or unprofitability of short-term Bitcoin holders, is a valuable indicator of market trends.

PNL指數是一種衡量短期比特幣持有人的盈利能力或不合格性的指標，是市場趨勢的寶貴指標。

The chart shows that Bitcoin follows a clear cycle of growth and correction, as reflected in the following signals:

該圖表顯示，比特幣遵循了一個清晰的生長和校正循環，如以下信號所示：

• Green signals: Periods of high PnL, indicating strong buying pressure and potential for price increases.

•綠色信號：高PNL的時期，表明購買壓力很大，價格上漲了。

• But as the PnL decreases, it acts as a barrier to further price gains.

•但是隨著PNL的減少，它是進一步價格上漲的障礙。

• Red signals: Phases of low or negative PnL, suggesting weak buying pressure and potential for price decreases or corrections.

•紅色信號：低或負PNL的階段，表明購買壓力較弱以及價格下降或更正的潛力。

The lower window of the chart displays the PnL Index by CryptoQuant.

圖表的下部窗口通過加密量顯示PNL索引。

The upper window shows Bitcoin's price trends over different time periods: 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year.

上窗顯示了比特幣在不同時間段的價格趨勢：1週，1個月，3個月和1年。

2) On-chain metrics signaling a bear market:

2）鏈上指標表明熊市：

Several on-chain indicators are flashing warning signs of a potential bear market.

幾個鏈上指標正在閃爍潛在熊市的警告信號。

• MVRV ratio: Measures the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to realized capitalization, indicating market value overbought or oversold conditions.

•MVRV比率：衡量比特幣市值與已實現資本化的比率，表明市場價值過多或過多的條件。

• SOPR: (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the average profit or loss of Bitcoin units as they are spent.

•SOPR ：（用過的產出利潤率）衡量比特幣單位的平均利潤或損失。

• NUPL: (Net Unpaid Loss Payoff) shows the amount of realized losses to be paid to continue the chain reaction.

•NUPL ：（未付淨損失的回報）顯示了要支付的已實現損失的金額，以繼續鏈條反應。

These indicators have appeared in past bear markets, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of increased risk or potential market adjustment.

這些指標已經出現在過去的熊市中，這表明比特幣可能正在進入風險增加或潛在市場調整的階段。

3) New liquidity drying up:

3）新的流動性枯竭：

Institutional capital inflows and Bitcoin ETFs have declined, leading to a lack of liquidity to support BTC prices. For example, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has recorded three consecutive weeks of outflows.

機構資本流入和比特幣ETF下降，導致缺乏支持BTC價格的流動性。例如，貝萊德（Blackrock）的比特幣ETF連續三個星期的流出記錄。

4) Whales selling BTC at lower prices:

4）以較低的價格出售BTC的鯨魚：

Large Bitcoin holders (Whales) are offloading their BTC at lower price levels, adding downward pressure to the market.

大型比特幣持有人（鯨魚）以較低的價格水平卸載其BTC，從而增加了市場的下降壓力。

Based on these factors, Bitcoin BTC is facing strong downward pressure and could be entering a bear market. However, the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and difficult to predict. Investors should remain cautious, closely monitor key market indicators, and stay informed to make sound investment decisions.

基於這些因素，比特幣BTC面臨著強大的向下壓力，可能會進入熊市。但是，加密貨幣市場本質上是波動的，難以預測。投資者應保持謹慎，密切監控關鍵市場指標，並隨時了解明智的投資決策。

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要求您在60,000美元的獎金池中份額！

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DeFi’s Unexpected Decline in 2025: A Deeper Look

Defi在2025年意外下降：更深入的外觀

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) was expected to be a key driver of the crypto bull cycle, providing decentralized financial services such as lending, borrowing, staking, and yield farming. However, as of early 2025, DeFi has been facing a decline and has not met initial expectations.

預計分散的金融（DEFI）將是加密牛週期的主要驅動力，提供分散的金融服務，例如貸款，借貸，積分和產量耕種。但是，截至2025年初，DeFi一直面臨下降，並且沒有達到最初的預期。

Here’s a detailed analysis based on recent data and research, as of March 19, 2025.

截至2025年3月19日，這是基於最新數據和研究的詳細分析。

Background and Initial Expectations

背景和初始期望

DeFi is a decentralized financial ecosystem built on blockchain technology, enabling users to conduct financial transactions without intermediaries like banks or traditional financial institutions.

DEFI是一個基於區塊鏈技術建立的分散金融生態系統，使用戶能夠在沒有銀行或傳統金融機構（例如銀行或傳統金融機構）的情況下進行金融交易。

During the uptrend, DeFi was anticipated to attract more capital through yield farming, staking, and innovative financial products.

在上升趨勢期間，DEFI預計將通過產量耕作，積累和創新的金融產品吸引更多的資本。

According to Exploding Topics, in 2020, DeFi’s Total Value Locked (TVL) increased 14 times, and by 2021, TVL peaked at $112.07 billion, showcasing its growth potential during bull markets.

根據爆炸性的話題，2020年，Defi的總價值鎖定（TVL）增長了14次，到2021年，TVL達到了1,120.7億美元的頂峰，在牛市中展示了其增長潛力。

The expectation was that DeFi would continue to drive the next uptrend, with TVL soaring due to new capital inflows

期望DEFI將繼續推動下一個上升趨勢，而由於新資本流入，TVL飆升