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面对近期的市场波动,比特币(BTC)显示出韧性迹象,价格徘徊在 61,361.60 美元左右。根据最近的分析,美国强劲的需求和被称为“金十字”的技术指标相结合,可能会为短期复苏提供所需的支撑。
Bitcoin (BTC) price seems to be finding support amid the recent market downturn, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency circling the $61,361.60 (€53,632.08) mark on October 3. This comes as strong demand from the United States, coupled with a technical indicator known as the “golden cross,” might be setting the stage for a short-term recovery, according to recent analysis.
比特币 (BTC) 的价格似乎在最近的市场低迷中找到了支撑,全球最大的加密货币在 10 月 3 日突破了 61,361.60 美元(53,632.08 欧元)大关。这是由于美国的强劲需求以及称为根据最近的分析,“金十字”可能正在为短期复苏奠定基础。
Strong US Demand Fuels Optimism
美国强劲的需求激发了乐观情绪
On October 3, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted the potential for a BTC price increase, mainly driven by strong demand from US investors. This optimism comes at a time when Bitcoin has faced several tests of its $60,000 support amid geopolitical concerns, especially regarding the situation in the Middle East.
10 月 3 日,链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 强调了 BTC 价格上涨的潜力,这主要是由美国投资者的强劲需求推动的。这种乐观情绪出现之际,由于地缘政治担忧,尤其是中东局势,比特币多次面临 60,000 美元支撑位的考验。
One of the key metrics pointing to this strong demand is the Coinbase premium. This premium reflects the price difference between Bitcoin traded on Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S., and the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, another major exchange. A higher Coinbase premium typically indicates stronger demand in the U.S. market.
表明这种强劲需求的关键指标之一是 Coinbase 溢价。这一溢价反映了美国最大的加密货币交易所之一 Coinbase 上交易的比特币与另一家主要交易所 Binance 上的 BTC/USDT 货币对之间的价格差异。 Coinbase 溢价较高通常表明美国市场需求强劲。
CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent elaborated on the significance of the Coinbase premium, noting that it has historically correlated with BTC price behavior. In particular, the recent formation of a “golden cross”—a bullish signal that occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average—could be pivotal.
CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Yonsei Dent 详细阐述了 Coinbase 溢价的重要性,并指出它在历史上与 BTC 价格行为相关。特别是,最近形成的“金叉”(当短期移动平均线穿越长期移动平均线时出现的看涨信号)可能至关重要。
“We analyzed the Coinbase Premium Index on a 1-hour time frame to observe short-term momentum, utilizing the 24-hour (daily) and 168-hour (weekly) moving averages for added context,” Yonsei Dent explained. “Historically, when the daily moving average forms a golden cross with strong momentum, we have seen significant price movements shortly after that.”
“我们在 1 小时时间范围内分析了 Coinbase 溢价指数,以观察短期动量,并利用 24 小时(每日)和 168 小时(每周)移动平均线来了解更多背景,”Yonsei Dent 解释道。 “从历史上看,当每日移动平均线形成势头强劲的黄金十字时,我们很快就会看到价格的大幅波动。”
The last time this golden cross occurred was at the end of September, which coincided with Bitcoin’s rise above $66,000. Even with the subsequent price correction to around $61,000, the ongoing demand from U.S. investors suggests renewed upward pressure, according to the analysis.
上次出现这种黄金交叉是在 9 月底,当时比特币升至 66,000 美元以上。分析称,即使随后价格调整至 61,000 美元左右,美国投资者的持续需求也表明新的上行压力。
Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
市场情绪及未来展望
Coinbase’s recent performance shows a positive premium over Binance, which is generally an encouraging sign for Bitcoin’s price performance. The exchanges have witnessed considerable withdrawals as Bitcoin tests its support levels, marking the highest withdrawal rates since the fallout from the FTX collapse in November 2022.
Coinbase 最近的表现显示出相对于 Binance 的正溢价,这对于比特币的价格表现来说通常是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。随着比特币测试其支撑位,这些交易所出现了大量提款,这是自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩溃以来的最高提款率。
CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Flow Pulse, which measures Bitcoin inflows from other exchanges to Coinbase, further supports this positive outlook. Fellow contributor Axel Adler Jr. noted, “The Bitcoin inflow to Coinbase from all exchanges remains in the green zone, indicating strong demand for coins in the U.S. market.” Despite the recent local pullback, he highlighted that the bullish trend is still in place.
CryptoQuant 的 Coinbase Flow Pulse 可衡量比特币从其他交易所流入 Coinbase 的情况,进一步支持了这一积极前景。撰稿人 Axel Adler Jr. 指出:“从所有交易所流入 Coinbase 的比特币仍处于绿色区域,这表明美国市场对比特币的需求强劲。”尽管最近出现局部回调,但他强调看涨趋势仍然存在。
A word of caution: While the current indicators suggest potential for a short-term recovery, market participants are advised to proceed with caution. Bitcoin’s price action is still subject to external factors, such as broader economic conditions and regulatory developments. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and while positive signals like the Coinbase premium and the golden cross are encouraging, they should be viewed in the context of the broader market narrative and price movements.
警告:虽然当前指标显示短期复苏的潜力,但建议市场参与者谨慎行事。比特币的价格走势仍然受到外部因素的影响,例如更广泛的经济状况和监管发展。加密货币市场以其波动性而闻名,虽然 Coinbase 溢价和黄金交叉等积极信号令人鼓舞,但应在更广泛的市场叙述和价格变动的背景下看待它们。
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