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面對近期的市場波動,比特幣(BTC)顯示出韌性跡象,價格徘徊在 61,361.60 美元左右。根據最近的分析,美國強勁的需求和被稱為「金十字」的技術指標相結合,可能會為短期復甦提供所需的支撐。
Bitcoin (BTC) price seems to be finding support amid the recent market downturn, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency circling the $61,361.60 (€53,632.08) mark on October 3. This comes as strong demand from the United States, coupled with a technical indicator known as the “golden cross,” might be setting the stage for a short-term recovery, according to recent analysis.
比特幣 (BTC) 的價格似乎在最近的市場低迷中找到了支撐,全球最大的加密貨幣在 10 月 3 日突破了 61,361.60 美元(53,632.08 歐元)大關。最近的分析,「金十字」可能正在為短期復甦奠定基礎。
Strong US Demand Fuels Optimism
美國強勁的需求激發了樂觀情緒
On October 3, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted the potential for a BTC price increase, mainly driven by strong demand from US investors. This optimism comes at a time when Bitcoin has faced several tests of its $60,000 support amid geopolitical concerns, especially regarding the situation in the Middle East.
10 月 3 日,鏈上分析平台 CryptoQuant 強調了 BTC 價格上漲的潛力,這主要是由美國投資者的強勁需求所推動的。這種樂觀情緒出現之際,由於地緣政治擔憂,尤其是中東局勢,比特幣多次面臨 6 萬美元支撐位的考驗。
One of the key metrics pointing to this strong demand is the Coinbase premium. This premium reflects the price difference between Bitcoin traded on Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S., and the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, another major exchange. A higher Coinbase premium typically indicates stronger demand in the U.S. market.
顯示這種強勁需求的關鍵指標之一是 Coinbase 溢價。這項溢價反映了美國最大的加密貨幣交易所之一 Coinbase 上交易的比特幣與另一家主要交易所 Binance 上的 BTC/USDT 貨幣對之間的價格差異。 Coinbase 溢價較高通常表示美國市場需求強勁。
CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent elaborated on the significance of the Coinbase premium, noting that it has historically correlated with BTC price behavior. In particular, the recent formation of a “golden cross”—a bullish signal that occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average—could be pivotal.
CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Yonsei Dent 詳細闡述了 Coinbase 溢價的重要性,並指出它在歷史上與 BTC 價格行為有關。特別是,最近形成的「金叉」(當短期移動平均線穿越長期移動平均線時出現的看漲訊號)可能至關重要。
“We analyzed the Coinbase Premium Index on a 1-hour time frame to observe short-term momentum, utilizing the 24-hour (daily) and 168-hour (weekly) moving averages for added context,” Yonsei Dent explained. “Historically, when the daily moving average forms a golden cross with strong momentum, we have seen significant price movements shortly after that.”
「我們在 1 小時時間範圍內分析了 Coinbase 溢價指數,以觀察短期動量,並利用 24 小時(每日)和 168 小時(每週)移動平均線來了解更多背景,」Yonsei Dent 解釋道。 “從歷史上看,當每日移動平均線形成勢頭強勁的黃金十字時,我們很快就會看到價格的大幅波動。”
The last time this golden cross occurred was at the end of September, which coincided with Bitcoin’s rise above $66,000. Even with the subsequent price correction to around $61,000, the ongoing demand from U.S. investors suggests renewed upward pressure, according to the analysis.
上次出現這種黃金交叉是在 9 月底,當時比特幣升至 66,000 美元以上。分析稱,即使隨後價格調整至 61,000 美元左右,美國投資者的持續需求也顯示新的上行壓力。
Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
市場情緒及未來展望
Coinbase’s recent performance shows a positive premium over Binance, which is generally an encouraging sign for Bitcoin’s price performance. The exchanges have witnessed considerable withdrawals as Bitcoin tests its support levels, marking the highest withdrawal rates since the fallout from the FTX collapse in November 2022.
Coinbase 最近的表現顯示出相對於 Binance 的正溢價,這對於比特幣的價格表現來說通常是一個令人鼓舞的跡象。隨著比特幣測試其支撐位,這些交易所出現了大量提款,這是自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩潰以來的最高提款率。
CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Flow Pulse, which measures Bitcoin inflows from other exchanges to Coinbase, further supports this positive outlook. Fellow contributor Axel Adler Jr. noted, “The Bitcoin inflow to Coinbase from all exchanges remains in the green zone, indicating strong demand for coins in the U.S. market.” Despite the recent local pullback, he highlighted that the bullish trend is still in place.
CryptoQuant 的 Coinbase Flow Pulse 可衡量比特幣從其他交易所流入 Coinbase 的情況,進一步支持了這個正面前景。撰稿人 Axel Adler Jr. 指出:“從所有交易所流入 Coinbase 的比特幣仍處於綠色區域,這表明美國市場對比特幣的需求強勁。”儘管最近出現局部回調,但他強調看漲趨勢仍然存在。
A word of caution: While the current indicators suggest potential for a short-term recovery, market participants are advised to proceed with caution. Bitcoin’s price action is still subject to external factors, such as broader economic conditions and regulatory developments. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and while positive signals like the Coinbase premium and the golden cross are encouraging, they should be viewed in the context of the broader market narrative and price movements.
警告:雖然目前指標顯示短期復甦的潛力,但建議市場參與者謹慎行事。比特幣的價格走勢仍然受到外部因素的影響,例如更廣泛的經濟狀況和監管發展。加密貨幣市場以其波動性而聞名,雖然 Coinbase 溢價和黃金交叉等積極信號令人鼓舞,但應在更廣泛的市場敘述和價格變動的背景下看待它們。
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