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一位用戶名為 burakkesmeci 的分析師表示,比特幣市場目前正面臨關鍵的價格波動。 burakkesmeci 指出,根據 MVRV 比率和 CQ Bull & Bear 指標,比特幣投資者目前表現出很高的市場預期。
Bitcoin price has shown no significant movement in the past day, according to data from CoinMarketCap, currently hovering around the $62,000 price mark. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has slipped into a minor consolidation state since the little gains recorded on Friday.
根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據,比特幣價格在過去一天沒有明顯波動,目前徘徊在 62,000 美元的價格大關附近。值得注意的是,自周五小幅上漲以來,這種主要的加密貨幣已陷入小幅盤整。
However, for long-term traders, Bitcoin has remained in a range-bound movement stretching to March. And while many investors are highly expectant of a bullish breakout in Q4 2024, certain market conditions must be met.
然而,對於長期交易者來說,比特幣一直保持區間波動,一直持續到三月。儘管許多投資者對 2024 年第四季的看漲突破寄予厚望,但必須滿足某些市場條件。
Bitcoin MVRV, CQ Bull & Bear Indicators Show Market Uneasiness
比特幣 MVRV、CQ 牛熊指標顯示市場不安
In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with the username burakkesmeci shares that the Bitcoin market is currently set for key price movements. Based on the MVRV Ratio and CQ Bull & Bear metric, burakkesmeci notes that Bitcoin investors presently show a significant level of market anticipation.
在 CryptoQuant 最近發表的一篇快速文章中,一位用戶名為 burakkesmeci 的分析師表示,比特幣市場目前正面臨關鍵的價格走勢。 burakkesmeci 指出,根據 MVRV 比率和 CQ Bull & Bear 指標,比特幣投資者目前表現出很高的市場預期。
For context, the MVRV Ratio compares the current price of Bitcoin to its realized value (the price at which the asset last moved on-chain). It is generally used to indicate if Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to its realized value.
作為上下文,MVRV 比率將比特幣的當前價格與其實現價值(資產最後一次在鏈上移動的價格)進行比較。它通常用於指示比特幣相對於其實現價值是否被低估或高估。
When the MVRV ratio crosses above its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 365), it indicates a bullish trend as investors are seeing a year-to-date gain on their assets. However, burakkesmeci notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV currently at 1.90 has been hovering just below its SMA 365 (2.03) since July, showing the BTC market is in a steady position waiting for a breakout.
當 MVRV 比率突破 365 天簡單移動平均線 (SMA 365) 時,就顯示看漲趨勢,因為投資者看到了年初至今的資產收益。然而,burakkesmeci 指出,自 7 月以來,比特幣的 MVRV 目前為 1.90,一直徘徊在略低於 SMA 365(2.03)的水平,這表明 BTC 市場處於穩定狀態,等待突破。
The analyst has also observed a similar pattern in the CQ Bull & Bear indicator, which measures recent price action relative to longer-term price movements. According to burrakesmeci, the CQ Bull & Bear metric has been oscillating slightly below its SMA 365 (0.46) since August, enforcing the notion that the Bitcoin market is in a holding pattern.
分析師在 CQ 牛市和熊市指標中也觀察到類似的模式,該指標衡量相對於長期價格走勢的近期價格走勢。根據 burrakesmeci 的說法,自 8 月以來,CQ Bull & Bear 指標一直在略低於 SMA 365 (0.46) 的位置波動,強化了比特幣市場處於持有模式的觀點。
Bitcoin Needs A Bullish Spark For Q4 Breakout
比特幣需要看漲火花才能實現第四季的突破
For Bitcoin to experience a bullish breakout from its current holding position, burakkesmeci highlights certain events that must occur. First, he notes that the Federal Reserve must fully engage in a rate-cut cycle, gradually lowering interest rates over time.
為了使比特幣從當前持有位置經歷看漲突破,burakkesmeci 強調了必須發生的某些事件。首先,他指出聯準會必須全面進入降息週期,隨著時間的推移逐步降低利率。
Interestingly, following a 50 basis points cut in September, market experts are tipping the Fed to implement another 25% cut at their next FOMC meeting in November.
有趣的是,繼 9 月降息 50 個基點之後,市場專家建議聯準會在 11 月的下一次 FOMC 會議上再次降息 25%。
Another bullish factor highlighted by burakkesmeci is an impending quantitative easing which will see the US government inject liquidity into the economy. It is expected that higher liquidity will allow individuals to explore risky investments such as Bitcoin.
布拉克斯梅奇強調的另一個看漲因素是即將實施的量化寬鬆政策,美國政府將向經濟注入流動性。預計更高的流動性將使個人能夠探索比特幣等風險投資。
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $62,009 with a 0.02% loss in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the asset's daily trading volume is down by 53.80% and valued at $12.97 billion.
截至撰寫本文時,比特幣交易價格為 62,009 美元,過去 24 小時內下跌 0.02%。同時,該資產的每日交易量下降了53.80%,價值為129.7億美元。
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