中本聪是谁？ HBO 纪录片重新引发对比特币匿名创造者的猜测

十多年来，比特币的匿名创造者中本聪的身份引发了谣言和猜测。

The identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin, has sparked relentless curiosity and speculation within the cryptocurrency realm. Despite numerous attempts to unravel this mystery, each effort seems to drape a new veil over the matter.

比特币的神秘创造者中本聪的身份在加密货币领域引发了无尽的好奇和猜测。尽管人们多次尝试解开这个谜团，但每一次努力似乎都给这个问题蒙上了一层新的面纱。

However, with the impending release of an HBO documentary on the subject, a fresh wave of speculation has hit the scene. This time, Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, is allowing its users to wager on the true identity of Bitcoin's mythical creator.

然而，随着 HBO 一部有关该主题的纪录片即将上映，新一波的猜测又出现了。这一次，去中心化投注平台 Polymarket 允许其用户对比特币神话创造者的真实身份进行投注。

In this captivating narrative, we delve into the names that have emerged as potential candidates for the role of Satoshi Nakamoto, exploring the evidence and considering the odds.

在这个引人入胜的叙述中，我们深入研究了中本聪这一角色的潜在候选人的名字，探索证据并考虑可能性。

The name that is making waves

引起轰动的名字

Among the candidates, one name that stands out is Len Sassaman. According to Polymarket bettors, Sassaman has the highest chance of being identified as the real Satoshi Nakamoto, with a probability of 45%.

在候选人中，Len Sassaman 是最引人注目的一个名字。根据 Polymarket 投注者的说法，Sassaman 被识别为真正的中本聪的机会最高，概率为 45%。

A renowned cryptographer, Sassaman was a staunch advocate for privacy. He spent much of his life exploring the fields of cryptography and anonymous systems, earning him high respect within cypherpunk circles.

萨萨曼是一位著名的密码学家，也是隐私的坚定倡导者。他一生大部分时间都在探索密码学和匿名系统领域，这为他赢得了密码朋克圈子的高度尊重。

Some consider him an ideal candidate due to his work within the communities that shaped the early days of Bitcoin, as well as his technical expertise.

一些人认为他是理想的候选人，因为他在塑造比特币早期的社区中的工作以及他的技术专长。

Although Sassaman passed away in 2011, which may initially rule out his direct involvement in the later development of Bitcoin, his deep knowledge and commitment to privacy continue to fuel this theory.

尽管 Sassaman 于 2011 年去世，这可能最初排除了他直接参与比特币后来开发的可能性，但他深厚的知识和对隐私的承诺继续推动了这一理论。

After all, who better than an expert in cryptography and anonymity to have conceived such a revolutionary technology?

毕竟，还有谁比密码学和匿名领域的专家更能构思出如此革命性的技术呢？

But the story of Sassaman doesn't stop there. Some even speculate that his tragic disappearance might have been orchestrated to maintain the mystery surrounding Satoshi.

但萨萨曼的故事并不止于此。一些人甚至猜测他的悲惨失踪可能是为了维持中本聪的神秘面纱而精心策划的。

A bold hypothesis, but one that adds a new dimension to this already complex puzzle. With such a profile, it's no surprise that Polymarket sees in him a potential Satoshi Nakamoto.

这是一个大胆的假设，但却为这个已经很复杂的谜题增添了新的维度。凭借这样的形象，Polymarket 将他视为潜在的中本聪也就不足为奇了。

Other contenders, but with reduced odds

其他竞争者，但赔率较低

While Sassaman is at the top of the betting pool, he is certainly not the only candidate in the running. Coming in second with 15% odds is Hal Finney, a pioneer in cryptography.

虽然萨萨曼在赌注中名列前茅，但他肯定不是唯一的候选人。以 15% 的几率位居第二的是密码学先驱哈尔·芬尼 (Hal Finney)。

Finney's name is often mentioned in the context of Bitcoin, and for good reason: he was one of the first to adopt the cryptocurrency and even received the very first Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi himself.

芬尼的名字经常在比特币背景下被提及，这是有充分理由的：他是最早采用加密货币的人之一，甚至从中本聪本人那里收到了第一笔比特币交易。

This proximity to Nakamoto, combined with his major contributions in the field of cryptography, makes Finney a strong candidate, even if the community remains divided as to his exact role.

与中本聪的接近，加上他在密码学领域的重大贡献，使芬尼成为强有力的候选人，尽管社区对于他的确切角色仍然存在分歧。

It is also interesting to note that some believe Finney might have been in close collaboration with Nakamoto, or even operated under that pseudonym. But despite these theories, his odds, according to Polymarket, remain lower than those of Sassaman.

有趣的是，有些人认为芬尼可能与中本聪密切合作，甚至以中本聪的笔名运作。但尽管有这些理论，据 Polymarket 称，他的胜算仍然低于萨萨曼。

Among other contenders are Nick Szabo, often credited for his work on smart contracts, and Adam Back, creator of Hashcash, a technology that largely influenced the development of Bitcoin.

其他竞争者包括尼克·萨博（Nick Szabo）和亚当·贝克（Adam Back），尼克·萨博（Nick Szabo）经常因其在智能合约方面的工作而受到赞誉，而亚当·贝克（Adam Back）则是 Hashcash 的创造者，该技术在很大程度上影响了比特币的发展。

However, their odds are far from high: 2% for Szabo and 7% for Back. Szabo, notably, despite being theorized as one of the main brains behind Bitcoin, seems to have lost ground in this speculative race.

然而，他们的胜算并不高：萨博为 2%，巴克为 7%。值得注意的是，尽管萨博被认为是比特币背后的主要大脑之一，但他似乎在这场投机竞赛中节节败退。

The great unknown: what if it was more than one person?

巨大的未知数：如果不止一个人怎么办？

Finally, a more intriguing hypothesis continues to circulate: what if Satoshi Nakamoto was not a single person, but a group of anonymous collaborators? According to the bettors, 38% believe the HBO documentary might reveal that Satoshi Nakamoto is not an isolated individual, but the result of a collective effort.

最后，一个更有趣的假设继续流传：如果中本聪不是一个人，而是一群匿名合作者怎么办？据投注者称，38% 的人认为 HBO 纪录片可能会揭示中本聪不是一个孤立的个体，而是集体努力的结果。

This theory, though enticing, raises new questions. Is it possible that several cryptography experts worked together to create Bitcoin and then decided to step back under a common pseudonym?

这个理论虽然很诱人，但也提出了新的问题。有没有可能是几位密码学专家共同创造了比特币，然后决定以共同的笔名退出？

This option, although it seems distant from the classic narrative of a solitary genius, would correspond to the collaborative spirit of the cypherpunk communities that shaped the technologies of privacy protection and decentralization. Such a revelation would upend our perception of Bitcoin’s history.

这种选择虽然看起来与孤独天才的经典叙述相去甚远，但它符合密码朋克社区的协作精神，这种精神塑造了隐私保护和去中心化技术。这样的揭露将颠覆我们对比特币历史的看法。