比特币（BTC）在4月1日华尔街开放时重复早期波动，因为美国贸易关税谈话使市场感到紧张

比特币（BTC）在4月1日华尔街开放的早期波动性重复，因为美国贸易关税谈话使市场感到紧张。

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced at the April 1 open to Wall Street in familiar fashion—with volatility—as US trade tariff talk kept markets nervous.

比特币（BTC）在4月1日以熟悉的方式向华尔街开放，随着美国贸易关税谈话使市场感到紧张。

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/1小时图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin stays erratic ahead of crunch tariffs

比特币在紧缩关税之前保持不稳定

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD making rapid moves within its weekly trading range of around $83,000.

CoIntelegraph Markets Pro和TradingView的数据显示，BTC/USD在其每周交易范围内的快速行动约为83,000美元。

US stocks ticked lower at the open, while gold came off fresh all-time highs of $3,149 per ounce.

美国的股票在公开赛时滴答了较低的滴答，而黄金的历史最高高点为每盎司3,149美元。

Talk of recession began to return to the spotlight ahead of US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” due on April 2 and on which he promised to unveil a new round of trade tariffs.

关于衰退的讨论开始在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的所谓“解放日”之前重新升到焦点，并于4月2日举行，他承诺将推出新的一轮贸易关税。

“Equity markets are clearly pricing-in a recession: The S&P 500 is down -2% since Fed rate cuts began in September 2024,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X thread on the topic.

“股票市场显然是经济衰退的定价：自2024年9月开始削减美联储率以来，标准普尔500指数下降了-2％，” Kobeissi信件在该主题的X线程的一部分中写道。

Kobeissi referred to the Federal Reserve easing of financial policy in the form of interest rate cuts—something now on pause but which markets see resuming in June, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

科贝西（Kobeissi）以降低利率的形式提到了美联储宽松的金融政策 - 现在暂停了，但根据CME Group的FedWatch工具的数据，哪些市场可以在6月恢复。

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting

FOMC 6月18日会议的FED目标利率概率

As of Apr 1, 2024, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting is 67.6%, while the probability of no rate change is 32.4%.

截至2024年4月1日，下次美联储会议上降低25个基准点利率的概率为67.6％，而无利率变化的概率为32.4％。

The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.75% to 5.00%.

当前的联邦资金利率在4.75％至5.00％之间。

— FedWatchTool (@FedWatchTool) April 1, 2024

- FedWatchTool（@fedwatchtool）2024年4月1日

While this would be a clear bullish catalyst for crypto and risk assets, Kobeissi noted that history had not favored strong equities rebounds under similar circumstances.

虽然这将是加密和风险资产的明显看涨催化剂，但科贝西指出，在类似情况下，历史并没有赞成强有力的股票篮板。

“In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months,” it continued.

它继续说：“在经济衰退期间削减税率的情况下，标准普尔500指数在6个月内在12个月内下降-6％-6％。”

S&P 500 performance comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

标普500绩效比较。资料来源：Kobeissi Letter/X

Trading firm QCP Capital was similarly cautious about the overall market landscape thanks to macroeconomic forces.

贸易公司QCP Capital同样对宏观经济部队的整体市场格局持谨慎态度。

“With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse,” it wrote about tariffs in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.

“由于消费者信心水暖的12年低点和股票市场已经被每周的4-5％降低了4-5％，因此时机再好不过了，”它在其最新的Telegram频道订户公告中写道。

BTC price action heads to key resistance

BTC价格动作前进到关键阻力

BTC price action thus left market observers keen for stronger signals over momentum, even as fundamental support at $80,000 held firm.

因此，BTC的价格行动使市场观察者渴望在动力上更加强烈的信号，即使是80,000美元的基本支持。

“Some upside momentum today, but it’s still just a 3-wave move, and resistance is holding strong,” trading channel More Crypto Online summarized about an Elliott Wave schematic for the 30-minute chart, adding that “the rally’s got more to prove.”

“今天的一些优势势头，但这仍然只是3波的举动，抵抗力量保持强大。”在线交易频道更多地总结了30分钟图表的Elliott Wave示意图，并补充说：“拉力赛有更多的证明。”

BTC/USD 30-minute chart. Source: More Crypto Online/X

BTC/USD 30分钟图表。资料来源：更多加密在线/x

Popular trader Jelle noted BTC/USD respecting the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $76,600, as support.

受欢迎的交易员Jelle指出，BTC/USD尊重50周的简单移动平均线（SMA），目前为76,600美元，作为支持。

BTC is still holding the 50-week SMA.

BTC仍在持有50周的SMA。

It's also showing some promise with today's price action as it seems to be setting up for a higher leg from $80k.

当今的价格行动也表现出了一些希望，因为它似乎正在为$ 80K的更高腿设置。

We'll see if it can manage to reclaim $84.5k as that would be ideal to continue the bull market. Good luck out there! pic.目で

我们将看看它是否可以设法获得84.5k美元，因为这是继续牛市的理想选择。祝你好运！图片

— Jelle (@jellecm) April 1, 2024

-Jelle（@jeellecm）2024年4月1日