Bitcoin (BTC) repeats earlier volatility at the April 1 Wall Street open as US trade tariff talk kept markets nervous

Bitcoin (BTC) repeated earlier volatility at the April 1 Wall Street open as US trade tariff talk kept markets nervous.

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced at the April 1 open to Wall Street in familiar fashion—with volatility—as US trade tariff talk kept markets nervous.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin stays erratic ahead of crunch tariffs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD making rapid moves within its weekly trading range of around $83,000.

US stocks ticked lower at the open, while gold came off fresh all-time highs of $3,149 per ounce.

Talk of recession began to return to the spotlight ahead of US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” due on April 2 and on which he promised to unveil a new round of trade tariffs.

“Equity markets are clearly pricing-in a recession: The S&P 500 is down -2% since Fed rate cuts began in September 2024,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X thread on the topic.

Kobeissi referred to the Federal Reserve easing of financial policy in the form of interest rate cuts—something now on pause but which markets see resuming in June, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting

As of Apr 1, 2024, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting is 67.6%, while the probability of no rate change is 32.4%.

The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.75% to 5.00%.

— FedWatchTool (@FedWatchTool) April 1, 2024

While this would be a clear bullish catalyst for crypto and risk assets, Kobeissi noted that history had not favored strong equities rebounds under similar circumstances.

“In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months,” it continued.

S&P 500 performance comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Trading firm QCP Capital was similarly cautious about the overall market landscape thanks to macroeconomic forces.

“With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse,” it wrote about tariffs in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.

BTC price action heads to key resistance

BTC price action thus left market observers keen for stronger signals over momentum, even as fundamental support at $80,000 held firm.

“Some upside momentum today, but it’s still just a 3-wave move, and resistance is holding strong,” trading channel More Crypto Online summarized about an Elliott Wave schematic for the 30-minute chart, adding that “the rally’s got more to prove.”

BTC/USD 30-minute chart. Source: More Crypto Online/X

Popular trader Jelle noted BTC/USD respecting the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $76,600, as support.

BTC is still holding the 50-week SMA.

It's also showing some promise with today's price action as it seems to be setting up for a higher leg from $80k.

We'll see if it can manage to reclaim $84.5k as that would be ideal to continue the bull market. Good luck out there! pic.目で

— Jelle (@jellecm) April 1, 2024