比特幣（BTC）在4月1日華爾街開放時重複早期波動，因為美國貿易關稅談話使市場感到緊張

比特幣（BTC）在4月1日華爾街開放的早期波動性重複，因為美國貿易關稅談話使市場感到緊張。

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced at the April 1 open to Wall Street in familiar fashion—with volatility—as US trade tariff talk kept markets nervous.

比特幣（BTC）在4月1日以熟悉的方式向華爾街開放，隨著美國貿易關稅談話使市場感到緊張。

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/1小時圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin stays erratic ahead of crunch tariffs

比特幣在緊縮關稅之前保持不穩定

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD making rapid moves within its weekly trading range of around $83,000.

CoIntelegraph Markets Pro和TradingView的數據顯示，BTC/USD在其每週交易範圍內的快速行動約為83,000美元。

US stocks ticked lower at the open, while gold came off fresh all-time highs of $3,149 per ounce.

美國的股票在公開賽時滴答了較低的滴答，而黃金的歷史最高高點為每盎司3,149美元。

Talk of recession began to return to the spotlight ahead of US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” due on April 2 and on which he promised to unveil a new round of trade tariffs.

關於衰退的討論開始在美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的所謂“解放日”之前重新升到焦點，並於4月2日舉行，他承諾將推出新的一輪貿易關稅。

“Equity markets are clearly pricing-in a recession: The S&P 500 is down -2% since Fed rate cuts began in September 2024,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X thread on the topic.

“股票市場顯然是經濟衰退的定價：自2024年9月開始削減美聯儲率以來，標準普爾500指數下降了-2％，” Kobeissi信件在該主題的X線程的一部分中寫道。

Kobeissi referred to the Federal Reserve easing of financial policy in the form of interest rate cuts—something now on pause but which markets see resuming in June, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

科貝西（Kobeissi）以降低利率的形式提到了美聯儲寬鬆的金融政策 - 現在暫停了，但根據CME Group的FedWatch工具的數據，哪些市場可以在6月恢復。

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting

FOMC 6月18日會議的FED目標利率概率

As of Apr 1, 2024, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting is 67.6%, while the probability of no rate change is 32.4%.

截至2024年4月1日，下次美聯儲會議上降低25個基準點利率的概率為67.6％，而無利率變化的概率為32.4％。

The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.75% to 5.00%.

當前的聯邦資金利率在4.75％至5.00％之間。

— FedWatchTool (@FedWatchTool) April 1, 2024

- FedWatchTool（@fedwatchtool）2024年4月1日

While this would be a clear bullish catalyst for crypto and risk assets, Kobeissi noted that history had not favored strong equities rebounds under similar circumstances.

雖然這將是加密和風險資產的明顯看漲催化劑，但科貝西指出，在類似情況下，歷史並沒有贊成強有力的股票籃板。

“In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months,” it continued.

它繼續說：“在經濟衰退期間削減稅率的情況下，標準普爾500指數在6個月內在12個月內下降-6％-6％。”

S&P 500 performance comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

標普500績效比較。資料來源：Kobeissi Letter/X

Trading firm QCP Capital was similarly cautious about the overall market landscape thanks to macroeconomic forces.

貿易公司QCP Capital同樣對宏觀經濟部隊的整體市場格局持謹慎態度。

“With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse,” it wrote about tariffs in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.

“由於消費者信心水暖的12年低點和股票市場已經被每週的4-5％降低了4-5％，因此時機再好不過了，”它在其最新的Telegram頻道訂戶公告中寫道。

BTC price action heads to key resistance

BTC價格動作前進到關鍵阻力

BTC price action thus left market observers keen for stronger signals over momentum, even as fundamental support at $80,000 held firm.

因此，BTC的價格行動使市場觀察者渴望在動力上更加強烈的信號，即使是80,000美元的基本支持。

“Some upside momentum today, but it’s still just a 3-wave move, and resistance is holding strong,” trading channel More Crypto Online summarized about an Elliott Wave schematic for the 30-minute chart, adding that “the rally’s got more to prove.”

“今天的一些優勢勢頭，但這仍然只是3波的舉動，抵抗力量保持強大。”在線交易頻道更多地總結了30分鐘圖表的Elliott Wave示意圖，並補充說：“拉力賽有更多的證明。”

BTC/USD 30-minute chart. Source: More Crypto Online/X

BTC/USD 30分鐘圖表。資料來源：更多加密在線/x

Popular trader Jelle noted BTC/USD respecting the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $76,600, as support.

受歡迎的交易員Jelle指出，BTC/USD尊重50週的簡單移動平均線（SMA），目前為76,600美元，作為支持。

BTC is still holding the 50-week SMA.

BTC仍在持有50週的SMA。

It's also showing some promise with today's price action as it seems to be setting up for a higher leg from $80k.

當今的價格行動也表現出了一些希望，因為它似乎正在為$ 80K的更高腿設置。

We'll see if it can manage to reclaim $84.5k as that would be ideal to continue the bull market. Good luck out there! pic.目で

我們將看看它是否可以設法獲得84.5k美元，因為這是繼續牛市的理想選擇。祝你好運！圖片

— Jelle (@jellecm) April 1, 2024

-Jelle（@jeellecm）2024年4月1日