比特币（BTC）在美国有利的通胀指标的推动下反弹

比特币（BTC、Bitcoin）在美国通胀指标利好的背景下反弹，呈现上升趋势，在美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普就职前几个小时（韩国时间21日凌晨2点）创下历史新高。

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing an upward trend just hours before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (2 a.m. KST on the 21st), hitting an all-time high on the back of favorable U.S. inflation indicators.

就在美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普就职前几个小时（韩国时间 21 日凌晨 2 点），比特币 (BTC) 呈现上涨趋势，在美国通胀指标利好的推动下创下历史新高。

Market participants are keenly watching what Trump will say during the inauguration.

市场参与者密切关注特朗普在就职典礼上将说什么。

Market experts have analyzed that Bitcoin could show strength if it stably breaks the major resistance of $108,500, but if it falls below the support level of $102,000, the decline could widen.

市场专家分析，如果比特币稳定突破108,500美元的主要阻力位，则可能会展现强势，但如果跌破102,000美元的支撑位，跌幅可能会扩大。

As of 7:01 p.m. on the 20th, Bitcoin is trading at 161.69 million won on the Upbit KRW market, up 4.58% from the previous day (equivalent to $108,292 on the Binance USDT market). At the same time, the Kimchi Premium (price difference between overseas and domestic exchanges) is at 3.17%.

截至20日晚7点01分，比特币在Upbit KRW市场交易价格为1.6169亿韩元，较前一日上涨4.58%（折合币安USDT市场108,292美元）。与此同时，泡菜溢价（海外和国内交易所的价差）为3.17%。

As U.S. inflation concerns have eased recently, bond yields have plummeted, and global stock and crypto markets have risen. Previously, the market had been adjusted by stronger-than-expected U.S. labor indicators, but a relief rally unfolded as both producer and consumer prices were contained recently.

随着美国通胀担忧近期缓解，债券收益率暴跌，全球股票和加密货币市场上涨。此前，市场曾因美国劳动力指标强于预期而进行调整，但随着近期生产者和消费者价格均受到遏制，市场出现了缓解性反弹。

On the 15th (local time), the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 3.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Analysts say that as U.S. consumer prices met or slightly fell short of expectations, investor sentiment improved. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is known as the most important indicator for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) when considering monetary policy.

当地时间15日，美国劳工部公布，12月核心消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.2%，环比上涨0.2%。分析师表示，由于美国消费者价格达到或略低于预期，投资者情绪有所改善。与此同时，排除波动性的能源和食品价格的核心CPI被认为是美联储考虑货币政策时最重要的指标。

With the improvement in inflation indicators, expectations for a rate cut are reviving in the market. CNBC reported on the 15th that "the core CPI for December slowed more than expected and recorded another bright inflation figure following the December Producer Price Index (PPI) announced the previous day." Bloomberg also reported, "As the U.S. core CPI for December finally eased, expectations have grown that the Fed will cut rates early."

随着通胀指标改善，市场降息预期重燃。 CNBC 15 日报道称，“12 月核心 CPI 放缓幅度超出预期，继前一天公布 12 月生产者价格指数 (PPI) 后，再录得亮丽通胀数据。”彭博社还报道称，“随着美国12月核心CPI最终回落，人们对美联储提前降息的预期有所增强。”

However, there are still concerns in the market about Trump-induced inflation. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch as of 7 p.m. that day, the probability that the Fed will hold the benchmark interest rate at 0.25% this month is 99.5%. FedWatch predicts a 28.2% chance of a freeze in March and a 39% chance of a cut in May.

不过，市场仍对特朗普引发的通胀存在担忧。截至当天晚7点，芝加哥商业交易所（CME）FedWatch数据显示，美联储本月将基准利率维持在0.25%的概率为99.5%。 FedWatch 预测 3 月份冻结利率的可能性为 28.2%，5 月份降息的可能性为 39%。

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a net inflow of $1.86326 billion (about 2.6991 trillion won) last week (13th-17th). The recent introduction of strategic Bitcoin reserve bills by Texas and Arizona and news that the Trump administration plans to include several industry CEOs on the crypto advisory committee have heightened expectations. Meanwhile, at least 10 U.S. states are reportedly planning to introduce bills for Bitcoin reserves.

比特币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）上周（13日-17日）净流入18.6326亿美元（约合2.6991万亿韩元）。德克萨斯州和亚利桑那州最近推出了战略性比特币储备法案，以及特朗普政府计划让几位行业首席执行官加入加密货币咨询委员会的消息提高了人们的期望。与此同时，据报道，美国至少 10 个州正计划推出比特币储备法案。

Bitcoin has recently undergone adjustments, and analysts say that many of the overheating factors have been resolved. On-chain analysis platform Glassnode stated in a research report, "After Bitcoin recently approached $108,000 and underwent adjustments, many of the market's overheating factors have been resolved," adding, "The current crypto market has relatively reduced declines and volatility." The report analyzed that the recent stress reduction in the market is due to the inflow of spot buying by ETFs and institutional investors.

比特币近期经历了调整，分析人士表示，很多过热因素已经得到解决。链上分析平台Glassnode在一份研究报告中表示，“比特币近期逼近10.8万美元并经历调整后，市场的许多过热因素已经得到解决”，并补充道，“当前加密货币市场的跌幅和波动性相对减少了。”报告分析称，近期市场压力减轻是由于ETF和机构投资者现货买入的流入。

The report added, "The degree of market anxiety in the recent adjustment was relatively low compared to past declines that appeared at the peak," and "Currently, Bitcoin is significantly above the average purchase price (average price) of short-term investors, which shows that the foundation of the bull market remains solid."

报告补充说，“与过去峰值时出现的下跌相比，近期调整中的市场焦虑程度相对较低”，“目前，比特币明显高于短期投资者的平均购买价格（平均价格），这表明牛市的基础仍然牢固。”

There is also an observation that Bitcoin has shown strong resilience despite inflationary pressures amid expectations for Trump's policies. Global crypto exchange Bitfinex stated, "Recently, Bitcoin has maintained resilience despite macroeconomic pressures," adding, "In the short term, volatility may intensify, but optimism about President-elect Trump's pro-crypto policies is expected to limit Bitcoin's losses and position Bitcoin strongly in the long term."

还有一种观察认为，尽管在特朗普政策预期的通胀压力下，比特币仍表现出强大的韧性。全球加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 表示，“近期，尽管面临宏观经济压力，比特币仍保持韧性”，并补充道，“短期内波动可能加剧，但对当选总统特朗普亲加密货币政策的乐观情绪预计将限制比特币的损失，并为比特币定位从长远来看是强有力的。”

There is also an analysis that whale investors are accumulating Bitcoin again. Crypto data analysis firm Santiment stated in a research report, "Whale wallets holding 10 or more Bitcoins have stopped inflows since December last year but seem to have resumed Bitcoin accumulation recently," adding, "These movements suggest that Bitcoin's recent rebound is a solid rebound." However, there is also a forecast that the market's liquidity may shrink somewhat in the future as the supply of Tether (USDT) and

还有分析称，鲸鱼投资者正在再次囤积比特币。加密数据分析公司Santiment在一份研究报告中表示，“自去年12月以来，持有10个或更多比特币的鲸鱼钱包已经停止流入，但最近似乎又恢复了比特币积累”，并补充道，“这些走势表明比特币近期的反弹是一次坚实的反弹”。不过，也有预测称，随着Tether（USDT）和Tether（USDT）的供应量增加，未来市场的流动性可能会有所萎缩。