比特幣（BTC）在美國有利的通膨指標推動下反彈

比特幣（BTC、Bitcoin）在美國通膨指標利好的背景下反彈，呈現上升趨勢，在美國當選總統唐納德·川普就職前幾個小時（韓國時間21日凌晨2點）創下歷史新高。

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing an upward trend just hours before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (2 a.m. KST on the 21st), hitting an all-time high on the back of favorable U.S. inflation indicators.

就在美國當選總統川普就職前幾個小時（韓國時間 21 日凌晨 2 點），比特幣 (BTC) 呈現上漲趨勢，在美國通膨指標利好的推動下創下歷史新高。

Market participants are keenly watching what Trump will say during the inauguration.

市場參與者密切關注川普在就職典禮上將說什麼。

Market experts have analyzed that Bitcoin could show strength if it stably breaks the major resistance of $108,500, but if it falls below the support level of $102,000, the decline could widen.

市場專家分析，如果比特幣穩定突破108,500美元的主要阻力位，可能會展現強勢，但如果跌破102,000美元的支撐位，跌幅可能會擴大。

As of 7:01 p.m. on the 20th, Bitcoin is trading at 161.69 million won on the Upbit KRW market, up 4.58% from the previous day (equivalent to $108,292 on the Binance USDT market). At the same time, the Kimchi Premium (price difference between overseas and domestic exchanges) is at 3.17%.

截至20日晚間7點01分，比特幣在Upbit KRW市場交易價格為1.6169億韓元，較前一日上漲4.58%（折合幣安USDT市場108,292美元）。同時，泡菜溢價（海外和國內交易所的價差）為3.17%。

As U.S. inflation concerns have eased recently, bond yields have plummeted, and global stock and crypto markets have risen. Previously, the market had been adjusted by stronger-than-expected U.S. labor indicators, but a relief rally unfolded as both producer and consumer prices were contained recently.

隨著美國通膨擔憂近期緩解，債券殖利率暴跌，全球股票和加密貨幣市場上漲。此前，市場曾因美國勞動力指標強於預期而進行調整，但隨著近期生產者和消費者價格均受到遏制，市場出現了緩解性反彈。

On the 15th (local time), the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 3.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Analysts say that as U.S. consumer prices met or slightly fell short of expectations, investor sentiment improved. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is known as the most important indicator for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) when considering monetary policy.

當地時間15日，美國勞工部公佈，12月核心消費者物價指數（CPI）較去年同期上漲3.2%，季增0.2%。分析師表示，由於美國消費者價格達到或略低於預期，投資人情緒有所改善。同時，排除波動性的能源和食品價格的核心CPI被認為是聯準會考慮貨幣政策時最重要的指標。

With the improvement in inflation indicators, expectations for a rate cut are reviving in the market. CNBC reported on the 15th that "the core CPI for December slowed more than expected and recorded another bright inflation figure following the December Producer Price Index (PPI) announced the previous day." Bloomberg also reported, "As the U.S. core CPI for December finally eased, expectations have grown that the Fed will cut rates early."

隨著通膨指標改善，市場降息預期重燃。 CNBC 15 日報道稱，“12 月核心 CPI 放緩幅度超出預期，繼前一天公佈 12 月生產者價格指數 (PPI) 後，再錄得亮麗通膨數據。”彭博社還報道稱，“隨著美國12月核心CPI最終回落，人們對聯準會提前降息的預期有所增強。”

However, there are still concerns in the market about Trump-induced inflation. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch as of 7 p.m. that day, the probability that the Fed will hold the benchmark interest rate at 0.25% this month is 99.5%. FedWatch predicts a 28.2% chance of a freeze in March and a 39% chance of a cut in May.

不過，市場仍對川普引發的通膨存在擔憂。截至當天晚間7點，芝加哥商業交易所（CME）FedWatch數據顯示，聯準會本月將基準利率維持在0.25%的機率為99.5%。 FedWatch 預測 3 月凍結利率的可能性為 28.2%，5 月降息的可能性為 39%。

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a net inflow of $1.86326 billion (about 2.6991 trillion won) last week (13th-17th). The recent introduction of strategic Bitcoin reserve bills by Texas and Arizona and news that the Trump administration plans to include several industry CEOs on the crypto advisory committee have heightened expectations. Meanwhile, at least 10 U.S. states are reportedly planning to introduce bills for Bitcoin reserves.

比特幣現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）上週（13日-17日）淨流入18.6326億美元（約2.6991兆韓元）。德州和亞利桑那州最近推出了戰略性比特幣儲備法案，以及川普政府計劃將幾位行業執行長納入加密貨幣諮詢委員會的消息，都提高了人們的期望。同時，據報道，美國至少 10 個州正計劃推出比特幣儲備法案。

Bitcoin has recently undergone adjustments, and analysts say that many of the overheating factors have been resolved. On-chain analysis platform Glassnode stated in a research report, "After Bitcoin recently approached $108,000 and underwent adjustments, many of the market's overheating factors have been resolved," adding, "The current crypto market has relatively reduced declines and volatility." The report analyzed that the recent stress reduction in the market is due to the inflow of spot buying by ETFs and institutional investors.

比特幣近期經歷了調整，分析家表示，許多過熱因素已經解決。鏈上分析平台Glassnode在一份研究報告中表示，“比特幣近期逼近10.8萬美元並經歷調整後，市場的許多過熱因素已經得到解決”，並補充道，“當前加密市場的跌幅和波動性相對減少了。報告分析稱，近期市場壓力減輕是由於ETF和機構投資者現貨買入的流入。

The report added, "The degree of market anxiety in the recent adjustment was relatively low compared to past declines that appeared at the peak," and "Currently, Bitcoin is significantly above the average purchase price (average price) of short-term investors, which shows that the foundation of the bull market remains solid."

報告補充說，“與過去高峰時出現的下跌相比，近期調整中的市場焦慮程度相對較低”，“目前，比特幣明顯高於短期投資者的平均購買價格（平均價格），這表明牛市的基礎仍然牢固。

There is also an observation that Bitcoin has shown strong resilience despite inflationary pressures amid expectations for Trump's policies. Global crypto exchange Bitfinex stated, "Recently, Bitcoin has maintained resilience despite macroeconomic pressures," adding, "In the short term, volatility may intensify, but optimism about President-elect Trump's pro-crypto policies is expected to limit Bitcoin's losses and position Bitcoin strongly in the long term."

還有觀察認為，儘管在川普政策預期的通膨壓力下，比特幣仍表現出強大的韌性。全球加密貨幣交易所Bitfinex 表示，“近期，儘管面臨宏觀經濟壓力，比特幣仍保持韌性”，並補充道，“短期內波動可能加劇，但對當選總統特朗普親加密貨幣政策的樂觀情緒預計將限制比特幣的損失，並為比特幣定位從長遠來看是強有力的。

There is also an analysis that whale investors are accumulating Bitcoin again. Crypto data analysis firm Santiment stated in a research report, "Whale wallets holding 10 or more Bitcoins have stopped inflows since December last year but seem to have resumed Bitcoin accumulation recently," adding, "These movements suggest that Bitcoin's recent rebound is a solid rebound." However, there is also a forecast that the market's liquidity may shrink somewhat in the future as the supply of Tether (USDT) and

還有分析稱，鯨魚投資者正在再次囤積比特幣。加密數據分析公司Santiment在一份研究報告中表示，“自去年12月以來，持有10個或更多比特幣的鯨魚錢包已經停止流入，但最近似乎又恢復了比特幣積累”，並補充道，「這些走勢顯示比特幣近期的反彈是一次堅實的反彈」。不過，也有預測稱，隨著Tether（USDT）和Tether（USDT）的供應量增加，未來市場的流動性可能會萎縮。