Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 表示，在美元不崩盘的情况下，比特币 (BTC) 的估值可达到 20 万美元

Bitwise资产管理公司首席投资官Matt Hougan最近解决了投资者中一个紧迫的问题：美元是否需要因比特币而崩溃

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, the US dollar does not need to collapse for Bitcoin to reach a valuation of $200,000 per coin.

Bitwise 资产管理公司首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示，美元不需要贬值，比特币的估值就能达到每枚 20 万美元。

Hougan's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's ascent to such a price level is driven by its maturation as a store-of-value asset and global economic factors that increase demand for such assets, rather than a decline in the US dollar's value.

Hougan的分析表明，比特币上涨到这样的价格水平是由于其作为价值储存资产的成熟以及全球经济因素增加了对此类资产的需求，而不是美元价值的下降。

In a series of posts on the social media platform X, Hougan recounted a conversation with a financial advisor who posed the question over dinner. “Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000? The answer is ‘no.’ Here’s why,” Hougan wrote.

在社交媒体平台 X 上的一系列帖子中，Hougan 讲述了与一位财务顾问的对话，这位财务顾问在晚餐时提出了这个问题。 “美元是否需要崩溃，比特币才能达到 20 万美元？答案是“不”。这就是原因，”霍根写道。

Hougan's explanation highlights two distinct bets involved in investing in Bitcoin.

霍根的解释强调了投资比特币的两个不同赌注。

The first bet is that “Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as a new ‘store of value' asset.” Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately 7% of gold's $18 trillion market. Hougan noted, “If it ‘matures’ and becomes 50% the size of gold, every Bitcoin is worth over $400,000.”

第一个赌注是“比特币将成功地将自己打造成一种新的‘价值储存’资产。”目前，比特币的市值约为黄金 18 万亿美元市场的 7%。 Hougan 指出，“如果它‘成熟’并达到黄金大小的 50%，那么每个比特币的价值将超过 40 万美元。”

The second bet is that “Governments will abuse fiat currencies and increase demand for ‘store of value' assets.” If the market for store-of-value assets triples in size due to such mismanagement, and Bitcoin maintains its 7% market share, “each Bitcoin is worth over $200,000.”

第二个赌注是“政府将滥用法定货币并增加对‘价值储存’资产的需求。”如果由于这种管理不善，价值储存资产的市场规模扩大两倍，而比特币仍保持 7% 的市场份额，“每个比特币的价值将超过 20 万美元。”

Hougan emphasized that these two arguments are independent but can compound. “If Bitcoin matures and the store of value market doubles, you quickly get to seven figures. For what it’s worth (FWIW), I think this is the most likely scenario eventually,” Hougan stated.

霍根强调，这两个论点是独立的，但可以复合。 “如果比特币成熟并且价值储存市场翻倍，你很快就会达到七位数。就其价值而言（FWIW），我认为这最终是最有可能出现的情况。”Hougan 说道。

Returning to the initial question, Hougan asserted, “So, no, the dollar doesn't need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000. All you need is Bitcoin to continue on its current path of maturing as an institutional asset.” He added that both factors—BTC's maturation and potential fiat currency abuse—are increasingly likely to occur simultaneously. “That's why Bitcoin is surging toward all-time highs.”

回到最初的问题，Hougan 断言：“所以，不，美元不需要崩溃，比特币就能达到 20 万美元。你所需要的只是比特币继续走目前作为机构资产的成熟之路。”他补充说，比特币的成熟和潜在的法定货币滥用这两个因素越来越有可能同时发生。 “这就是比特币飙升至历史新高的原因。”

The discussion continued with input from Kevin Brent Cook, a user on X, who added nuance to Hougan's explanation. “Concise, clear, and simple,” Cook remarked. “I would only add that the reason a ‘collapse’ isn't necessary is that under ‘abusing fiat' comes the steady grind of deficit-driven dollar inflation (the US writes endless checks that never bounce), which naturally creates more currency chasing all assets.”

X 用户凯文·布伦特·库克 (Kevin Brent Cook) 的意见继续讨论，他为 Hougan 的解释添加了细微差别。 “简洁、清晰、简单，”库克说道。 “我只想补充一点，‘崩溃’没有必要的原因是，在‘滥用法定货币’的情况下，赤字驱动的美元通胀将持续恶化（美国开出无休止的支票，永远不会反弹），这自然会引发更多的货币追逐所有资产。”

Hougan concurred with Cook's assessment, responding with a succinct “Agreed.”

霍根同意库克的评估，并简洁地回应“同意”。

At press time, BTC traded at $72,445, up 23% in the last 20 days.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 72,445 美元，过去 20 天上涨 23%。