Bitwise 資訊長 Matt Hougan 表示，在美元不崩盤的情況下，比特幣 (BTC) 的估值可達 20 萬美元

Bitwise資產管理公司首席投資長Matt Hougan最近解決了投資者中一個緊迫的問題：美元是否需要因比特幣而崩潰

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, the US dollar does not need to collapse for Bitcoin to reach a valuation of $200,000 per coin.

Bitwise 資產管理公司首席投資長 Matt Hougan 表示，美元不需要貶值，比特幣的估值就能達到每枚 20 萬美元。

Hougan's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's ascent to such a price level is driven by its maturation as a store-of-value asset and global economic factors that increase demand for such assets, rather than a decline in the US dollar's value.

Hougan的分析表明，比特幣上漲到這樣的價格水平是由於其作為價值儲存資產的成熟以及全球經濟因素增加了對此類資產的需求，而不是美元價值的下降。

In a series of posts on the social media platform X, Hougan recounted a conversation with a financial advisor who posed the question over dinner. “Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000? The answer is ‘no.’ Here’s why,” Hougan wrote.

在社群媒體平台 X 上的一系列貼文中，Hougan 講述了與一位財務顧問的對話，這位財務顧問在晚餐時提出了這個問題。 「美元是否需要崩潰，比特幣才能達到 20 萬美元？答案是「否」。這就是原因，」霍根寫道。

Hougan's explanation highlights two distinct bets involved in investing in Bitcoin.

霍根的解釋強調了投資比特幣的兩個不同賭注。

The first bet is that “Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as a new ‘store of value' asset.” Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately 7% of gold's $18 trillion market. Hougan noted, “If it ‘matures’ and becomes 50% the size of gold, every Bitcoin is worth over $400,000.”

第一個賭注是“比特幣將成功地將自己打造成一種新的‘價值儲存’資產。”目前，比特幣的市值約為黃金 18 兆美元市場的 7%。 Hougan 指出，“如果它‘成熟’並達到黃金大小的 50%，那麼每個比特幣的價值將超過 40 萬美元。”

The second bet is that “Governments will abuse fiat currencies and increase demand for ‘store of value' assets.” If the market for store-of-value assets triples in size due to such mismanagement, and Bitcoin maintains its 7% market share, “each Bitcoin is worth over $200,000.”

第二個賭注是“政府將濫用法定貨幣並增加對‘價值儲存’資產的需求。”如果由於這種管理不善，價值儲存資產的市場規模擴大兩倍，而比特幣仍保持 7% 的市場份額，“每個比特幣的價值將超過 20 萬美元。”

Hougan emphasized that these two arguments are independent but can compound. “If Bitcoin matures and the store of value market doubles, you quickly get to seven figures. For what it’s worth (FWIW), I think this is the most likely scenario eventually,” Hougan stated.

霍根強調，這兩個論點是獨立的，但可以復合。 「如果比特幣成熟且價值儲存市場翻倍，你很快就會達到七位數。就其價值而言（FWIW），我認為這最終是最有可能的情況。

Returning to the initial question, Hougan asserted, “So, no, the dollar doesn't need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000. All you need is Bitcoin to continue on its current path of maturing as an institutional asset.” He added that both factors—BTC's maturation and potential fiat currency abuse—are increasingly likely to occur simultaneously. “That's why Bitcoin is surging toward all-time highs.”

回到最初的問題，Hougan 斷言：「所以，不，美元不需要崩潰，比特幣就能達到 20 萬美元。你所需要的只是比特幣繼續走目前作為機構資產的成熟之路。他補充說，比特幣的成熟和潛在的法定貨幣濫用這兩個因素越來越有可能同時發生。 “這就是比特幣飆升至歷史新高的原因。”

The discussion continued with input from Kevin Brent Cook, a user on X, who added nuance to Hougan's explanation. “Concise, clear, and simple,” Cook remarked. “I would only add that the reason a ‘collapse’ isn't necessary is that under ‘abusing fiat' comes the steady grind of deficit-driven dollar inflation (the US writes endless checks that never bounce), which naturally creates more currency chasing all assets.”

X 用戶 Kevin Brent Cook 的意見繼續討論，他為 Hougan 的解釋添加了細微差別。 「簡潔、清晰、簡單，」庫克說。 「我只想補充一點，『崩潰』沒有必要的原因是，在『濫用法定貨幣』的情況下，赤字驅動的美元通膨將持續惡化（美國開出無休止的支票，永遠不會反彈），這自然會引發更多的貨幣追逐所有資產。

Hougan concurred with Cook's assessment, responding with a succinct “Agreed.”

霍根同意庫克的評估，並簡潔地回應「同意」。

At press time, BTC traded at $72,445, up 23% in the last 20 days.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 72,445 美元，過去 20 天上漲 23%。